Robert had a post today with information from Nielsen concerning audience retention after the Super Bowl, and with the big game just 2 days away, I wanted to repost this item originally from December about this year's after the big game candidate Undercover Boss.
Survivor's been put after the Super Bowl on two occasions, and I'd have put it at the top of the list this year as well. It's also the only "reality" show of the modern era to have followed the game, although a wide variety of unscripted shows have in the past (60 Minutes on 4 occasions).
I admit to being puzzled at the Undercover Boss choice. It wasn't done to cash in on the advertising revenue that airing one of their established shows would have (as has been the case in recent years), nor was it used to give a big sampling to a new (or relatively new) scripted drama.
How well might Undercover Boss do?
My wild guess is that it's going to do below average by historical standards. It's not an established show and it's a bit of an unusual premiss. I'll guess between 20-22 million viewers.
The game itself may effect the numbers, although its hard to tell for certain. The last two Super Bowls were quite close until the end, and presumably carried their large audiences later in the game. Alias did relatively poorly in 2003 after the Buccaneers drubbing of the Raiders, but so did Malcom in the Middle in 2002 and The Office in 2009 after close games.
What do you think the viewership of Undercover Boss following the Super Bowl will be and why? (this is the original poll from December, if you voted in it then, you'll not be able to vote again)
Note that while the table has been updated with 2009 numbers for The Office, the chart has not.
|Super Bowl||Year||Network||Program||Rating||Share||Avg. Homes (million)||Avg. Viewers (million)|
|XXXVI||2002||FOX||Malcolm In The Middle||11.5||21||12.117||21.445|
|XXXIII||1999||FOX||Family Guy -Preview||12.6||21||12.560||22.005|
|XXXII||1998||NBC||Third Rock from the Sun||19.7||34||19.260||33.662|
|XXVIII||1994||NBC||John Laroquette Show||12.3||22||11.590||17.708|
|XXIII||1989||NBC||Sun Nite Movie||20.9||36||18.890|
|XXI||1987||CBS||Hard Copy Special||19.8||33||17.310|
|XX||1986||NBC||NBC Sunday Night Movie||16.5||25||14.170||39.729|
|XIX||1985||ABC||Macgrouder and Loud||22.8||38||19.360|
|XIII||1979||NBC||Brothers and Sisters||21.0||32||15.650||31.722|
|XII||1978||CBS||All In the Family||30.4||47||22.160||35.472|
|XI||1977||NBC||Disney's "Kit Carson||25.8||37||18.370||42.816|
|X||1976||CBS||Phoenix Open Golf||16.5||31||11.480||22.363|
|IX||1975||NBC||NBC Sunday Night News||16.7||28||11.440||15.924|
|VII||1973||NBC||Disney's "The Mystery||28.4||44||18.400|
|V||1971||NBC||Bing CrosbyPro-Am Golf Champshps||19.2||36||11.540|
|III||1969||NBC||G.E. College Bowl||11.7||21||6.670|
|I||1967||NBC||Disney's "The Mosby Raiders" Part II||21.7||33.7||11.910|
2006-9 numbers are Live+Same Day, all others are Live Viewing.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
For comparison, here are the historical Super Bowl ratings themselves.