Robert had a post today with information from Nielsen concerning audience retention after the Super Bowl, and with the big game just 2 days away, I wanted to repost this item originally from December about this year's after the big game candidate Undercover Boss.
Survivor's been put after the Super Bowl on two occasions, and I'd have put it at the top of the list this year as well. It's also the only "reality" show of the modern era to have followed the game, although a wide variety of unscripted shows have in the past (60 Minutes on 4 occasions).
I admit to being puzzled at the Undercover Boss choice. It wasn't done to cash in on the advertising revenue that airing one of their established shows would have (as has been the case in recent years), nor was it used to give a big sampling to a new (or relatively new) scripted drama.
How well might Undercover Boss do?
My wild guess is that it's going to do below average by historical standards. It's not an established show and it's a bit of an unusual premiss. I'll guess between 20-22 million viewers.
The game itself may effect the numbers, although its hard to tell for certain. The last two Super Bowls were quite close until the end, and presumably carried their large audiences later in the game. Alias did relatively poorly in 2003 after the Buccaneers drubbing of the Raiders, but so did Malcom in the Middle in 2002 and The Office in 2009 after close games.
What do you think the viewership of Undercover Boss following the Super Bowl will be and why? (this is the original poll from December, if you voted in it then, you'll not be able to vote again)
[poll id="29"]
Note that while the table has been updated with 2009 numbers for The Office, the chart has not.
| Super Bowl | Year | Network | Program | Rating | Share | Avg. Homes (million) | Avg. Viewers (million) |
| XLIII | 2009 | NBC | The Office | 11.6 | 21 | 13.338 | 22.905 |
| XLII | 2008 | FOX | House | 15.7 | 27 | 17.719 | 29.045 |
| XLI | 2007 | CBS | Criminal Minds | 15.1 | 26 | 16.770 | 26.314 |
| XL | 2006 | ABC | Grey's Anatomy | 21.0 | 34 | 23.106 | 37.881 |
| XXXIX | 2005 | FOX | Simpsons | 13.0 | 22 | 14.228 | 23.074 |
| XXXVIII | 2004 | CBS | Survivor All-Star | 17.9 | 32 | 19.415 | 33.535 |
| XXXVII | 2003 | ABC | Alias | 10.6 | 20 | 11.283 | 17.362 |
| XXXVI | 2002 | FOX | Malcolm In The Middle | 11.5 | 21 | 12.117 | 21.445 |
| XXXV | 2001 | CBS | Survivor II | 24.5 | 39 | 25.076 | 45.369 |
| XXXIV | 2000 | ABC | The Practice | 15.3 | 27 | 15.420 | 23.847 |
| XXXIII | 1999 | FOX | Family Guy -Preview | 12.6 | 21 | 12.560 | 22.005 |
| XXXII | 1998 | NBC | Third Rock from the Sun | 19.7 | 34 | 19.260 | 33.662 |
| XXXI | 1997 | FOX | X-Files | 17.2 | 29 | 16.730 | 29.098 |
| XXX | 1996 | NBC | Friends | 29.6 | 46 | 28.400 | 52.925 |
| XXIX | 1995 | ABC | Extreme Special | 14.2 | 25 | 13.350 | 22.594 |
| XXVIII | 1994 | NBC | John Laroquette Show | 12.3 | 22 | 11.590 | 17.708 |
| XXVII | 1993 | NBC | Homicide Special | 18.0 | 31 | 16.760 | 28.121 |
| XXVI | 1992 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 16.8 | 30 | 15.470 | 24.821 |
| XXV | 1991 | ABC | Davis Rules | 15.5 | 25 | 14.430 | 26.695 |
| XXIV | 1990 | CBS | Grand Slam | 18.6 | 30 | 17.130 | 30.765 |
| XXIII | 1989 | NBC | Sun Nite Movie | 20.9 | 36 | 18.890 | |
| XXII | 1988 | ABC | Wonder Years | 17.9 | 31 | 15.860 | 28.976 |
| XXI | 1987 | CBS | Hard Copy Special | 19.8 | 33 | 17.310 | |
| XX | 1986 | NBC | NBC Sunday Night Movie | 16.5 | 25 | 14.170 | 39.729 |
| XIX | 1985 | ABC | Macgrouder and Loud | 22.8 | 38 | 19.360 | |
| XVIII | 1984 | CBS | Airwolf Special(s) | 21.6 | 36 | 18.100 | 27.874 |
| XVII | 1983 | NBC | A-Team Special | 26.3 | 39 | 21.910 | 21.910 |
| XVI | 1982 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 26.2 | 36 | 21.350 | |
| XV | 1981 | NBC | Chips | 16.3 | 26 | 12.680 | |
| XIV | 1980 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 33.0 | 50 | 25.179 | 40.746 |
| XIII | 1979 | NBC | Brothers and Sisters | 21.0 | 32 | 15.650 | 31.722 |
| XII | 1978 | CBS | All In the Family | 30.4 | 47 | 22.160 | 35.472 |
| XI | 1977 | NBC | Disney's "Kit Carson | 25.8 | 37 | 18.370 | 42.816 |
| X | 1976 | CBS | Phoenix Open Golf | 16.5 | 31 | 11.480 | 22.363 |
| IX | 1975 | NBC | NBC Sunday Night News | 16.7 | 28 | 11.440 | 15.924 |
| VIII | 1974 | CBS | Perry Mason** | 12.7 | 20 | 8.410 | 15.058 |
| VII | 1973 | NBC | Disney's "The Mystery | 28.4 | 44 | 18.400 | |
| VI | 1972 | CBS | 60 Minutes | 20.3 | 36 | 12.610 | |
| V | 1971 | NBC | Bing CrosbyPro-Am Golf Champshps | 19.2 | 36 | 11.540 | |
| IV | 1970 | CBS | Lassie | 21.5 | 34 | 12.580 | |
| III | 1969 | NBC | G.E. College Bowl | 11.7 | 21 | 6.670 | |
| II | 1968 | CBS | Lassie | 26.3 | 41.2 | 14.730 | |
| I | 1967 | CBS | Lassie | 15.6 | 25.3 | 8.560 | |
| I | 1967 | NBC | Disney's "The Mosby Raiders" Part II | 21.7 | 33.7 | 11.910 |
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2006-9 numbers are Live+Same Day, all others are Live Viewing.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
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For comparison, here are the historical Super Bowl ratings themselves.
where is option for 35+ million this baby is getting 50 million easy
I am guessing 15 – 20 million because its just another reality show that looks just ok
I also see in the 2000′s that no comedy that has aired after the super bowl has done that well!!! The Simpsons did the best!!! and for some reason Malcome which is considered a big show got the least amount of viewers of the comedies!!
I think its a mistake on CBS’ part to air Undercover Boss in the post Super Bowl spot. In my opinion they should have opted for NCIS:LA or Survivor:Heroes vs. Villians, both could have easily topped 20m viewers, Undercover Boss on the other hand…I think it will be one of the lowest rated post Super Bowl shows ever. I could be totally wrong though.
I wish they’d re-air that A-Team special.
Judging by the chart and numbers it does not appear that shows post-Super Bowl have done great anyway in recent years, but I am going to guess that Undercover Boss is going to land near Alias territory on the ratings.
I don’t think that Undercover Boss will do all that well, but I actually believe that it was a smart idea on CBS’ part. Apparently this show is getting a lot of buzz from the media and has been reviewed quite well, so I believe it will gain a strong following thereafter.
Putting NCIS: LA, The Big Bang Theory, or even Survivor after the Super Bowl would be foolish. Wasting that timeslot on an established program with a very strong following is not necessary.
I’m guessing that Undercover Boss will get 30-35 million viewers for the post-SB preview, but it might be an older-skewing show. Remember that The Office, Alias, and Malcolm In The Middle are niche shows and make up for some of the lowest post-SB shows in history. The premise for Undercover Boss seems like it could be a broad-appealing series that will get a good initial sampling. With regards to the all-important adults 18-49 demo, I think Undercover Boss will get somewhere between an 9.5 and a 14.0 rating.
16m my prediction, it will do even worse than Alias.
My guess is 20-25 million.
How I wish the picked Survivor 20 instead since this a special season with the theme and Survivor’s 10th year but I do understand the reason why CBS picked it, this show will be on Sundays and they suck at that day, if the exposure would help it in the long run then it is beneficial. But on a TV fan standpoint, it’s just not exciting to wait for what the ratings will be for the show
Well, these poll results are not going to be even close, since most of us (including me) who browse this sight do not really care for reality TV. That being said, I hope it flops, to me CBS dropped the ball on this one. They should have put The Good Wife on since it is so critically acclaimed, but doesn’t get the best ratings, and they have already renewed it for next year, so it would have been a good way to increase its viewership. Just my opinion though, I don’t get payed the big bucks to make decisions like this.
The idea is to give Undercover Boss a good first sampling. Its a long term investment, the adds on this episode might not net so much dollars as a NCIS/BBT special might have brought BUT you can market episode 2 much better with this kind of first episode
Shane says:
“Apparently this show is getting a lot of buzz from the media and has been reviewed quite well, so I believe it will gain a strong following thereafter.”
Reviewed well by whom? Everything I’ve seen and heard has either excoriated it or been very, very limp. I’ll be surprised if it sees a fifth episode.
The premise of the show sounds interesting to me. I plan on watching it, whereas I do NOT plan on watching Survivor this time. How many times are they going to put the same people on that show? At least the Undercover Boss idea is a bit different from everything else. And how many CSI’s, NCIS’s, and Law & Order’s do we really need?
25 million. Strong ad campaign for the show, and it looks interesting. The company is also well known (and may be part of a scandal in california due to babies dieing near their facility)
I think this show will be the turning point when reality tv takes a big hit. It’ll still exist, just in smaller #’s. I think they’ve milked the genre to it’s max.
So Friends hold the record…
Which network will air Superbowl 2011?
My pick would have been The Amazing Race. It is a good performer on Sundays. I don’t thinks Survivor needs the juice this season. The reason for picking an unscripted competition show rather than a “feel good” unscripted show is that you try to get a good sampling that will get viewers coming back for the entire season.
Also, TAR has elements that might appeal to the younger male demographic watching the Super Bowl. Lots of action and I would assume some physical stuff in the first leg. I just think it’s a better fit. CBS needs to try to break the hold that FOX animation has on Sunday nights.
This, in my prediction, will be a bigger flop than 2002 Malcom in the middle.