Somehow I missed the announcement about it being National Bubble Show Day Week. Of course, around here at least from September through May almost every day is a reason to celebrate bubble shows -- shows not highly rated enough to know for sure they will be renewed or lowly rated enough to be sure they will be canceled.
On Thursday afternoon several outlets did articles on prospects for bubble shows. On Sunday, Michael Ausiello jumped into the fray with his Renewal Scorecard. For all the eye-rolls we cast in Mr. Ausiello's direction for questionable use of the word "Exclusive", his scorecard is comprehensive and includes all shows, not just bubble shows. I also like his designations of "A Sure Thing," "A Safe Bet," "Could Go Either Way," and "A Long Shot."
Now Monday is here and our friends at the New York Post join the fray with Which TV shows are on the brink of getting axed? (Chuck and Fringe fans, prepare to wring your hands!)
Here's the crazy thing, the author of that article, Maxine Shen, called me last week to discuss an article she was doing on, of all things, Nickelodeon's Big Time Rush. Programming on the cable kids networks is not exactly my forte, but I helped as much as I could. But then on a story about which shows are on the brink of extinction, right in our wheelhouse, no love at all!
In case you missed the posts from the first day of National Bubble Week: Josef Adalian at The Wrap, James Hibberd at The The Hollywood Reporter and Michael Schneider at Variety all weighed in on the fate of marginal and low-rated shows on Thursday.
why does everyone and their mother have LUX listed as “could go either way” while your index says it’s moderately safe for renewal?
The index won’t be updated until 2/23 and currently only includes the first two episodes of Life Unexpected. The ratings for the second two episodes were not as good, with last Monday’s dropping below a 1.0 (to a .9) with adults 18-49 and not being particularly strong even with the CW’s target of W18-34.
LUX’s ratings are roughly on par with most of their other shows (hovering around the 1.0 value) for 18-49, but worse with CW’s usual metric of W18-34.
Simply put, if CW aims for W18-34, it is not particularly strong, and if they aim for 18-34 (both sexes), it’s no better. If CW suddenly switches to 18-49 like most other networks, then the show is fine… but no one expects such a sudden switch.
I could quibble with Ausiello’s logic on some of those shows, but it’s largely the same special cases that keep popping up: Lie to Me, with their episodes currently abandoned in Summer, is “A safe bet”? Gary Unmarried, having a barely announced episode cut is “A safe bet”? Etc.
Yeah, there were some things designated safe bets that should be in the could go either way pile based on the numbers, but he does wind up updating it. As I recall there were some shenanigans last year with TSCC in his scorecard.
I dunno if someone posted this but,
http://features.metacritic.com/features/2010/tv-cancellation-watch-february-2010/?tag=topslot;title;1
This is pretty much the comparison of all of the first 3 website’s articles put together, and includes this site.
Everyone missed having a retrospective on shows that normally would have been ‘on the bubble’ but their networks were/are in trouble – ‘what used to constitute a bubble show’ (just for fun).
I get so annoyed with Ausiello when he uses the word “Exclusive.” He used it back when he was with TV Guide as well. Don’t these website know what the word exclusive means?
As far as the bubble thing goes. It’s nice to see that people feel Fringe has a good shot at coming back. I have a feeling it will get picked up for 13 episode midseason order.
LOL @ Ausiello.
Gary a safe bet? C’mon! Christine is safer, objectively: if you have a show in its 5th season pulling similar ratings as a show in its 2nd season, which one will you renew? It’s a no-brainer!
But I do think it will ultimately come down to AoP or GU, Christine’s fate will be determined upon seeing how many comedies they have for next season (and maybe RoE could have some bearing in it).
On ABC it’ll come down to FF vs. V and CBS’s freaky Friday will be Numb3rs vs. Medium…
And ‘Til Death could go either way? It’s not even in primetime anymore!!! It airs at 7PM for god sake!
I think Fox should just admit they don’t do well with sitcoms and cancel both TD and Brothers, leaving it without comedies (much like the CW).
Spoiler TV has a prediction table, too, with color coding, no less.
http://www.spoilertv.com/2010/02/spoilertv-tv-renewal-predictions-table.html
The fact that “Til Death” is still on the air should qualify as a lead story for a revival of “Thats Incredible”.
Somebody on that show must really have something on Rupert Murdoch!!
I’ve updated my bubble list to add a few more series that I think are still in play.
Based on the numbers and trends evidenced to date, barring some sort of sudden change or unlikely development (i.e. ‘Accidentally on Purpose’ dying on Wednesday night), I predict the following renewal/cancel decisions to take shape by the time of the May upfronts:
Bubbles That Will Float
+++++++++++++++++++++++
+ ‘Accidentally on Purpose’ CBS (renewed to pair up with ‘Old Christine’)
+ ‘Castle’ ABC
+ ‘Chuck’ NBC
+ ‘Community’ NBC
+ ‘Durham County’ ION
+ ‘Flashpoint’ CBS
+ ‘Fringe’ FOX
+ ‘Ghost Whisperer’ CBS
+ ‘Gossip Girl’ CW
+ ‘Human Target’ FOX
+ ‘Kitchen Nightmares’ FOX
+ ‘Law & Order’ NBC
+ ‘Lie to Me’ FOX
+ ‘Life Unexpected’ CW
+ ‘Medium’ CBS
+ ‘The New Adventures of Old Christine’ CBS (renewed just so ABC can’t take it for Wednesdays at 8 pm)
+ ‘One Tree Hill’ CW
+ ‘Parks & Recreation’ NBC
+ ‘Rules of Engagement’ CBS (will get yet another 13-episode season)
+ ‘Smallville’ CW
+ ‘Supernanny’ ABC
+ ‘Supernatural’ CW
+ ‘Undercover Boss’ CBS
+ ‘V’ ABC
+ ‘Wife Swap’ ABC
Bubbles That Will Burst:
————————
- ‘Better Off Ted’ ABC (sad ending for a great comedy; FX pickup?)
- ‘Brothers’ FOX
- ‘Cold Case’ CBS
- ‘The Deep End’ ABC
- ‘Flash Forward’ ABC
- ‘The Forgotten’ ABC
- ‘Gary Unmarried’ CBS
- ‘Heroes’ NBC
- ‘Melrose Place’ CW
- ‘Mercy’ NBC
- ‘My Thursday Night Movie’ MyNetworkTV
- ‘90210? CW (too costly for such scanty viewership)
- ‘Numbers’ CBS
- ‘Past Life’ FOX
- ‘Scrubs’ ABC
- ‘Til Death’ FOX
- ‘Trauma’ NBC
- ‘24? FOX
Bubbles Yet to Be Inflated (Third Season Premieres):
————————
? ‘The Emeril Legasse Show’ ION
? ‘Fly Girls’ CW
? ‘Happy Town’ ABC
? ‘High Society’ CW
? ‘Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution’ ABC
? ‘The Marriage Ref’ NBC
? ‘Miami Medical’ CBS
? ‘Minute to Win It’ NBC
? ‘Parenthood’ NBC
? ‘Romantically Challenged’ ABC
? ‘Sons of Tuscon’ FOX
? ‘Who Do You Think You Are?’ NBC
I would like to see Cold Case get a shot on another night because I think it has some legs left. The problem is that it’s on CBS and where would you put it?
A scan of the CBS 9:00 and 10:00 hours Monday – Thursday have no obvious openings on CBS and its way too expensive for Friday.
It could most likely thrive again in the “good Wife” time slot on Tuesday at 10:00 (with no Olympics that seems to me to be the softest spot for any scripted show during the week.) But then what would they do with GW?
I’m confused. There are now two sources suggesting Supernatural is a lock for renewal. I don’t follow the show, but it’s been my understanding that the creator and both stars have made it abundantly clear that the show is over and they won’t be back. Did something change or are the writers just unaware of this?
most of the bubble watch reports seem to believe Chuck and Fringe are safe
Chris,
There was an unfortunate Entertainment Weekly article last year which is pretty much at the root of all the ‘Supernatural season five is the last season.’ It overstated and sensationalized some comments made.
While it is true that the creator Eric Kripke has made frequent references to his ‘five year plan’, he has also clarified that he never thought the show would make it to season five, and while the current story arc would most likely wrap up, he could continue the show into season six with a new arc.
Kripke’s contract I believe is up for renewal, but Padalecki and Ackles are contracted through season six. In recent interviews, Dawn Ostroff has been complimentary about EK and the creative direction of the show and the show’s growth in the 18-34 demographic. The show performs well for the network out of Vampire Diaries and they really have more pressing issues to address.
I think Supernatural will be back for season six – I’m sure everyone prefers that it be with EK at the helm, but showrunners have been replaced before and shows continue. Its basically no different this year than any other year – if the CW wants it to continue, it will.
Diane, initially, as they typically are prone to do, SpoilerTV simply stole our content, took all five separate network posts and made it into one huge graphic then cited us with a tiny link. We asked them not to steal our stuff so they came up with the current version. What’s funny to me is they will copy and paste a 3,000 word article from Variety or THR (or reprint Ausiello’s entire scorecard) but then on some of their stuff they have the nerve to request “please don’t repost”. Slimy!
@DuMont:
Christine will be renewed not because ABC wants it but because (at least according to Wikipedia) CBS doesn’t have as much comedies coming up, while ABC has at least 3.
So ABC wouldn’t need Christine anymore, but CBS still does.
Actually Robert, lets get some facts straight here before you go around bad-mouthing us.
We took your excellent idea of a renew/cancel chart and we applied our own data and forum.
It is a weekly update of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers and some other factors such as Network, Day of Week, DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales, Syndication and Torrents etc to make our own SpoilerTV Cancellation Index.
Does your table take into consideration all those factors?
Huh.. Lie To Me is considered a safe bet, a little too early to tell right now, depends on how it does when it comes back. I’m a fan of the show but have to be realistic. Glad to see most seem to agree that Fringe will be back, a solid series, and Fox seems to really be behind it. As for Numb3rs the writing seems to be on the wall now, baring a miracle or Friday nights collapsing without it, doubt I’ll see Numbers get a season 7 which sucks. It is an enjoyable show, just seems to have lost it’s legs.
It will be interesting to see if any of NBC’s new shows get off the ground. The Seinfeld show “Marriage Ref” sounds cheesy, but than again ALL reality TV is cheesy to me.
Will also be interesting to see if the much hyped Parenthood gets a Thursday slot and bumps Community or Parks to another night.