Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.65 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.77 |
| Community | 0.83 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.88 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.94 |
| Chuck | 0.94 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.05 |
| The Office (P) | 1.46 |
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It's old news by now, but Chuck managed only a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating on February 8. Fans better hope that was just a one time hiccup and not a sign of real ratings sickness. We'll soon see.
With Parks & Recreation renewed for a third season, I think it's likely that NBC will renew Community as well. It's got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings. There are issues with bringing it back and new half hour comedy timeslots, but I think those will be overcome.
Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they've been all down. Since the new year it's had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0. Even for NBC, a drama with those ratings is likely getting canceled.
As horrible as the situation is, I've got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Chuck will be fine as long as it doesn’t tank under 2.0
All Chuck needs to do is hang on to Mariska Hartigay’s waist, like on a conga line, and keep on keepin’ on – if they keep the same index as SVU, unless it crashes, or unless Dick Wolf becomes the next Mr. Kopeckny, Chuck is safe…
…does anybody have any idea how much residual payments would be for some of NBCU’s library programs, to air on Flashback Saturdays? Emergency!, Quincy, and Colombo would likely be far cheaper than Dateline, and better to watch than Notre Dame football
AC Nielsen, you owe me! I want to be a Nielsen family before Chuck comes on next week (actually, it’s L&O that I want to see!)
As for Heroes, maybe Quiznos could sponsor them, or Jimmy Johns?
If for some reason NBC chucks “Chuck,” I can imagine a Friday night on USA with “Chuck” followed by “Psych”. That works for me.
Chuck will be renewed.
Chuck will make it.
BTW what will it take to finally take Law & Order off the air?
From this list, only Mercy and Trauma will be canceled!
Chuck’s Monday ratings this season: 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2
I personally wouldn’t view the 2.2 as an outlier from a 2.5 average, but rather the continuation of a trend…
That said, who knows how low the show could go before NBC demands a price WB won’t accept. More accurately, who knows what WB estimates the show can get in the syndication market.
Don’t forget, Heroes is NBC’s most expensive show. That matters. It costs 3.5/4 million an episode, well above average.
@ Stefan:
I hope Law & Order (or as I like to call it, Special Beards Unit) stays around for awhile. I think they’ve currently got the best cast they’ve had in years. And the writing is still very competent, which is something I can’t say for SVU. I can’t even put into words how bad the writing on SVU has become.
I think Chuck will be fine.
It’s Community that I’m worried about. Parks has been already renewed despite having poorer ratings, but I fear that it’s just because NBC is grooming that show to be their next The Office. Plus they have 9 new comedy pilots in development. Not all of those will be picked up, but still.
Toast.
Bill,
Just curious if you’re using any of the Olympics in the Index. My guess would be no since the numbers aren’t that much different from a few weeks ago, but I was hoping you could confirm.
“If for some reason NBC chucks “Chuck,” I can imagine a Friday night on USA with “Chuck” followed by “Psych”. That works for me”
*raises hand* I’ll second that!
I’d give Chuck a 75% chance at being renewed at this point. If it starts to nosedive below a 2.0 it will be in trouble. But I don’t think (and I may be wrong) it’s ever seen that low of a number before. NBC is in the position of having bigger fish to fry (Heroes, Mercy, Trauma, plus the extra 10PM slots) so Chuck may very well get a 4th season. And if that happens I can see WB lowering the license fee to a point were it will make sense for NBC to keep it on the air for a 5th Season so WB can profit on syndication and NBC can profit on a cheap show.
I hope Chuck gets an early renewal. I don’t know how much longer I can go on eating these Subway sandwiches every Monday.
Goodluck with that Lester’s Fan, I think the news on Chuck won’t come until NBC announces it’s schedule in May.
“Hiccup or Pneumonia?”
Which is good? or bad?
Wow, not many people like SVU………….why??? Anyways, I still kinda like SVU, only because of Mariska Hargitay and Chris Meloni, but Chris needs to be in fewer scenes and Mariska in more. Good to see that it is green (likely to be renewed for 2010-2011 season) and hope it gets renewed.
PLEASE ANSWER THIS FOR ME, PLEASE: what does the “renewal/cancel index” numbers means for the shows? and what or how much are good numbers????? Thanks in advance if someone answers it, I will check back to see if it has been answered.
Do you think Law & Order moving back to regular primetime (ie – not Friday) will affect its chances for renewal?
Will you guys start an entirely new index for the show based on its ratings on Mondays? Usually the criteria for renewing a Friday night show are very different than a Monday-Thursday show.
It’ll be especially interesting to see how it fares against two other procedurals, Castle and CSI: Miami. I have a feeling its renewal may not be as guaranteed anymore, unless it gets shifted back to Fridays when new original programs are picked up.
MERCY WILL BE BACK
@ r0ckmypants:
Castle is not a procedural.