Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Better Off Ted | 0.42 |
| Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) | 0.46 |
| Scrubs (P) | 0.56 |
| The Deep End | 0.56 |
| Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) | 0.58 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| the forgotten | 0.62 |
| Eastwick | 0.62 |
| The Middle | 0.76 |
| Castle (P) | 0.82 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.02 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.02 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.14 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.16 |
| Modern Family | 1.19 |
| V | 1.41 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.65 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.69 |
| Lost (final season) | 1.85 |
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I continue to like Castle's renewal chances, its relative ratings improved enough from the beginning of the year to put it in a good position to return for next season.
There are just two shows on ABC's "bubble" at this point.
FlashForward ratings need to bounce back from its fall lows (2.1 adults 18-49 rating) when it returns in March or it will be canceled.
V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because its fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I've colored the show orange in the table to indicate that its future is uncertain, based only on its spring ratings.
The Deep End will certainly be canceled.
Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.
Ugly Betty has been officially canceled. Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.
I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
ahh the sweet smell of the updated R/CI! will it continue to be weekly?
V will do well out of LOST. They have actors in common, and both interest the same type of audience. I go with renewal for V. There’s no hope for FlashForward.
John i`m with you!!!
Well, The Unusuals had Harold Perrineau and it aired after Lost and it bombed.
If the ratings for V are similar to what they finished with in episode 4, it should be all set to return in the fall. People have been jumping all over V and placing it on the bubble with FlashForward when V went into the hiatus with 3.0+ rating and over 9 million viewers. FlashForward limped into its hiatus with numbers that were much worse, not to mention the lingering taste of disappointment after all that hype.
Nobody watches anything immediately after LOST because they’re simply too busy discussing the episode they just saw. Post-LOST slot is bad news.
@Bruce … V plummeted in the ratings, losing 2 full rating points in only 3 weeks, followed by a hiatus for several months. The concerns that this show will self-destruct (especially in the post-LOST timeslot) this spring are valid.
Oh wow. I watch both Flashforward and V so i hope they both return for the fall..but if I had to choose between them…at this point i don’t really know. Probably V..only because of Elizabeth Mitchell and her greatness…but I think Flashforward could return also..but I don’t know what the show could be about in the future.
Lost,V and FlashForward are the only shows on ABC that I watch..so hopefully they’ll bring those two shows back or they’ll be losing a at least one viewer next season..short of a good new show.
@Big Boss
No one expected V’s ratings to stay at the herculean level they were at. The ratings for the show leveled out from week 3 to week 4 also. Nostalgia/novelty drove those initial ratings. V is a niche scifi show and those programs don’t get big ratings, with the exception of Lost.
The hiatus is absolutely a reason for concern, but not on the level that FlashForward fans should be, who also had to endure a similar hiatus without as large of an audience backing the show.
Love V, honestly hope it gets it’s 4 season run, amazing series with potential, I honestly think FF is done, so many changes, and the story seems like it could only go on for one season anyways. Have they even officially canceled Deep End ?
I’m just glad Castle is coming back.
I kinda like Flash Forward, but I can live without it. I don’t like V at all. There’s no subtlety there, it’s like 24 with aliens (which sounds kind of cool, but it isn’t).
Oh and Bill wasn’t Eastwick officially canceled ? Pretty sure I saw it on this site.
FF is dead – I’ll be shocked if it does better than 2.5 for this batch of episodes.
V will, in a shock to all of our predictions from six months ago, return for another season. Unless Justified is a hit from the get go, Good Wife and Parenthood will skew female/old, allowing V to survive until next season.
Yep, Castle, a show I adore, has definitely persevered through this season. Unless the other spring premieres do very well, it looks like it can punch its’ ticket to another season.
As for V (which I also love and can’t wait for its’ return), remember that even though ratings had declined a little, it was still in the safe zone, so with Lost & the forgotten (likely) going away, and barring a big collapse and viewers forgetting what happened before, it’s got a fighting chance. For FlashForward, it could still make a comeback but it will need to hit the ground running if it wants to get a chance. Personally, I’ve not watching it again because I’m now hooked on Community & Parks/Recreation.
Oh, if Eastwick’s already done, why isn’t it frozen?
@Empire:
Oh yeah, I think The Deep End’s cancellation has already been announced:
http://www.southcoasttoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100218/ENTERTAIN/100219916
To get the history clear: V did drop dramatically from the first week to the third week, going from a 5.2 to a 3.1. But the ratings for the third and fourth week were identical, both in 18-49 and total viewers. That third week audience seemed to be their “regular” audience.
Now, you could say V was up vs. “soft” competition, like older-skewing shows NCIS and Biggest Loser. But I have a hard time thinking the older, more female audiences of Parenthood & Good Wife will be tougher competition.
Actually, the real wild card is the behind the scenes changes. V swapped out showrunners and who knows what else in that hiatus. “New new V” may not appeal to audiences anymore – but it won’t be Lost’s fault. Hell, 0.6 or so of them were willing to give Forgotten’s first half hour after Lost a shot, despite having no similarities to the lead-in.
V could bomb, yes, but remember – it aired at 8pm in the fall, and a 3.1 in that hour is pretty great. Post-Lost, it has the Elizabeth Mitchell connection. the same could be said for last year’s the Unusuals, but Harold Perrineau’s Michael was never that popular of a character on Lost, whereas EM has a big fanbase and many people were upset when Juliet died. Also, I read in an interview that EM is filming additional episodes for Lost, so the synergy there is just about as perfect as you can get.
Right, V’s target audience is definitely different from The Good Wife, which skews old, and Parenthood, which looks like it could go more young and/or female. It’s three different audiences we’re talking about here.
One personal note, I will have to record V if I do like Parenthood enough. I still hope it comes back, but if not, oh well.
FlashForward has more of Lost’s actors and references to Lost than V
Penny from Lost is the main female on FF
Charlie from Lost is one of the nefarious types on FF
V has Juliet.
Yay, the index is back
It’s nice to see B&S are still in the green area.
@ Tom:
Parenthood will air Wednesdays so it won’t be a competitor for the (I presume predominantly male) viewership of V.
I think that FF is definitely going to be canceled, and V will continue.
@ Empire:
4-season run? Has it already been established that they had a 4-year-long plan for the show or are you just speculating?
And yes, Deep End has been officially canceled.