Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL (P)||0.49*|
|Melrose Place (P)||0.58|
|Gossip Girl (P)||0.85|
|Smallville (F), (P)||1.04|
|One Tree Hill (P)||1.05|
|Life Unexpected (P)||1.13|
|Supernatural (S), (P)||1.14|
|Vampire Diaries (P)||1.52|
News that Supernatural, Gossip Girl, 90210 and Vampire Diaries all received early renewals (not surprisingly) leaves only Smallville, One Tree Hill and Life Unexpected among the only real unknowns on the current CW schedule, since Melrose Place will certainly be canceled.
Life Unexpected's adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I'd be confident of its renewal, but I'm still leaning that way. Robert noted that the show has done relatively well in repeat airings on Wednesday (which the Index doesn't take into account). That could lead to a ratings boost when it shifts to one airing per week. Note that Life Unexpected's ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it's difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers.
One Tree Hill is on more solid ratings ground. If it comes down to OTH vs. LUX (although I'm not saying that will be the case), I'd be pretty sure OTH gets the renewal.
Smallville's return will be determined by the wishes of the producers and cast. It certainly has the ratings.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.