Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) | 0.49* |
| Melrose Place (P) | 0.58 |
| 90210 (P) | 0.79 |
| Gossip Girl (P) | 0.85 |
| Smallville (F), (P) | 1.04 |
| One Tree Hill (P) | 1.05 |
| Life Unexpected (P) | 1.13 |
| Supernatural (S), (P) | 1.14 |
| Vampire Diaries (P) | 1.52 |
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News that Supernatural, Gossip Girl, 90210 and Vampire Diaries all received early renewals (not surprisingly) leaves only Smallville, One Tree Hill and Life Unexpected among the only real unknowns on the current CW schedule, since Melrose Place will certainly be canceled.
Life Unexpected's adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I'd be confident of its renewal, but I'm still leaning that way. Robert noted that the show has done relatively well in repeat airings on Wednesday (which the Index doesn't take into account). That could lead to a ratings boost when it shifts to one airing per week. Note that Life Unexpected's ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it's difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers.
One Tree Hill is on more solid ratings ground. If it comes down to OTH vs. LUX (although I'm not saying that will be the case), I'd be pretty sure OTH gets the renewal.
Smallville's return will be determined by the wishes of the producers and cast. It certainly has the ratings.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
yay first post.
The CW needs to become the WB again Pronto.
Go OTH!
If it comes down to Life Unexpected & One Tree Hill. Life Unexpected gets the renewal. OTH has one more season in it at most, and the show is in it’s 7th season it’s not going to gain new viewership. Life Unexpected still has that potential, and it getting praise from the critics . Plus Life Unexpected is the cheapest show on The CW. The CW could still make money off of OTH’s syndication and bring Lux bad instead if it came to that.
Sadie that’s not true. the ratings speak, OTH wins.
But LUX gets two airings a week lets see when CW is back to a full schedule how LUX does.
Bug, when it comes to live audiences sure. But Life Unexpected retains almost all of it’s ratings on Wednesday nights.Hopefully the show can bring some of that to Mondays at 8:00 p.m. when it moves.
OTH reapets have always been good.
i see 90210 bombing when it comes back, not sure why it got early renewal
I just checked Life Unexpected is number 4 one Itunes, and One Tree Hill is number 8. Last night’s episode was so awesome. Everyone keep watching and spreading the word!
But it’s fun to see shows like 90210 and GG who are in the bottom of this “ranking” have already been renewd and shows like OTH, Smallville that have better ratings than 90210 and GG have not been renewed yet.
i think the CW should can OTH… the two main charactors are gone…. its going the same way 7th heaven got…. keep adding new cast members….sucking the life out of the show…..
@yipee: Of course 90210 will bomb. That’s exactly why it got an early renewal. It seems to be the tactic across the board (see also the ABC comedies) that the networks are early renewing the shows opposite AI and tossing out their vs.-AI-numbers from their calculations.
For CW, the real question should again be this year: What is the network aiming for next season? W18-34 only, or A18-34?
With 5 of their 8 M-R slots locked already, if they are aiming for A18-34 (and most of their pilots seem more male appealing than CW’s current lineup) some shows will have to go, thus both OTH & LUX seem likely to end (LUX possibly getting a second chance as a midseason replacement).
Bug
First you need to remember that this tracks adults 18-49 original and reruns (which 90210 and GG have more reruns then any other currently so their base number is going to be lower, and why LUX without any reruns is going to appear high). But the CW is more concerned with adults 18-34 and women 18-34 then adults 18-49.
If the CW wants to save some money, they should renew both One Tree Hill and LUX and give both 13 episode seasons.
LUX should premiere in the Fall as the show is still too new. See how the ratings are 1st and then maybe you can order a back 9.
I would premiere One Tree Hill in January and give it a final 13 episode send off. They premiered season 5 in January and fans of the show still found it.
I will be genuinely pissed off if Lux gets canceled. The decision is effectively in CBS’ hands.
I could see both being renewed, but ANYTHING could happen. I’ve learned that – like sitcoms – it’s impossible to predict what will happen with some CW shows.
@ Cody
I Agree the CW should be the WB.
As for the Network I hope LUX is renewed, it’s a unique and enjoyable show, different in today’s broadcast television. As for everything else honestly only see Melrose gone, maybe just maybe Smallville on the chance that Tom Welling decides he’s done. I think it’s time the CW takes a new direction.
Oh yeah also, great to have you back Bill missed seeing the index every Tuesday.
seeing how the CW doesnt have enough shows to fill next season, they’d be stupid to cancel either of them, as there both decent ratings, and with there luck they will order a couple more bombs next season like MP and TBL
Bug
OTH does not repeat well. Last year (during the regular season, not summer), OTH’s repeat numbers were in viewers the lowest of any show renewed by the CW, its adults 18-49 were 2nd lowest (just .006 higher then 90210).