Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.55 |
| Three Rivers (P) | .55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.61 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.64 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.65 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.66 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.86 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.90 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 1.01 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.04 |
| CSI (P) | 1.06 |
| The Mentalist | 1.07 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.12 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.14 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.14 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.30 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.46 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.56 |
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Unlike ABC, which has only two scripted shows with reasonably unknown futures, CBS has 5 shows on its bubble: Numbers, Medium, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally on Purpose. In fact, Cold Case is the only current CBS show that I'm confident will be canceled. Some of those other 5 will be, but its hard to tell which at this point can squeeze into next season. And the success of Undercover Boss has likely reduced the number of survivors on that list by one from what it was likely to be just a few weeks ago.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I like Accidentally. The acting is better than Garys, as is the humor. I think it will preform better than Gary, as it is straight off Monday where it got 3.0′s. Go AoP!
Also, love the picture!
Yeah, I’m one of those hyperventilating Medium fans, I really hope it gets renewed. It helps CBS win almost every Friday night, I don’t see why CBS would cancel it, so I hope they don’t!
The correct grammar is “try TO squeeze”.
To “try and squeeze” is to be trying and squeezing at the same time. To “try to squeeze” is to be attempting to squeeze.
That is all.
As much as I love Numb3rs and would love to see it get one more season, to further Don’s character, seems like it’s done. Medium is more likely to stay on Fridays or might switch to Sundays to try and build a Sunday line up, who knows it’s CBS, with so many strong shows even the ones that get canned seem to do better then most networks. As for the rest of the bubble shows who knows which return, get a mid-season pick up etc.
I don’t follow any of the shows that are on the bubble. Personally, I would…
renew:
Medium
Old Christine
cancel:
Numb3rs
Gary
Accidentally
It has a lot of comedy pilots, two comedies will be axed.
Accidentally got much better in the latter half of this season. There’s actually a couple of smile worthy jokes now.
I watch Old Christine, Gary Unmarried and Accidentally on Purpose and of the three I find Gary unmarried the least funny. I don’t like the formatting changes they made between seasons one and two. Accidentally on Purpose has potential to me and Christine just keeps me laughing.
Hehe, I love that picture too!
For Cold Case, a 48% drop in lead-in from Undercover Boss, it’s rising costs, and the fact that higher-rated shows in similar timeslots are on the bubble should say it all. My best advice would be to do what ABC has done with Ugly Betty and just cancel it now, so the writers have some time to do a proper finale.
Numb3rs I’m almost sure is a goner as well; it’s red in my book. Older show, rising costs, reduced episode order, and the lead cast member signed for a pilot are the writing on the wall for me. Of course Miami Medical could shake things up some, but who knows?
I’m leaning towards renewal for Medium as far as I’m concerned. It’s got some future in it, it’s done very well for Fridays, and like you said I doubt 2 Friday shows would fall in one swoop.
I like both Cold Case and Numb3rs, but it’s time for something to new. I’m hoping the John Wells drama somehow makes it onto next year’s sked.
I think it’s time for Christine to end the “adventures.” As much as I like Julia and the rest, the show has been in a rut for several years, and I’m tired of the same jokes, no character growth, etc.
Gary was/is not funny, not well written, nor well acted, and Jay Mohr is a major tool, professionally and personally. Let it go.
I think Accidentally has some potential, and like many sitcoms, it needs a little time to settle in and hit its comedic stride, so I hope CBS gives it another year to see if it can build a foundation and grow an audience, though most networks don’t so that anymore, sadly.
Just my two pennies…
I one of those Medium Fans and i really Doubt will cancell the greatest show right now!!! So keep doin the good work and we hope for the best
Gary definitely deserves to see a third season. This show hasn’t had the right boost its needed to get 2 and 1/2 Men ratings like I know it can.
Medium and Ghost Whisperer basically have the same rating
why do people always talking about “Medium ” getting cancelled?
I really don;t understand it …….
Antonio, GW’s ratings average is about 10% better than Medium’s, and its 8pm timeslot is somewhat more difficult (in terms of available viewers) than Medium’s at 9.
@JPtheTVguy:
I completely agree with everything you said about Gary. I couldn’t have put it better myself.
As for Christine, even though I’m a big fan, I’ll be the first to admit that continuity is a big problem on that show (how long were Christine and Richard married, how long was Barb with Pete, Richie went from 9 to 13 in two and a half years, Barb got proposed to 3 months ago and we still don’t know how that turned out…) but still I’d like to see it get another season. I promise I won’t be lobbying for another after that this time next year
I only watch AoP and TAAHM to fill in the gap between HIMYM and TBBT so I did see that AoP has gotten better but I think there’s just no ROOM for it. I just hope Rules tanks. It has like the worst cast ever.
But if Miami Medical bombs (which it probably will) and CBS pulls both them and Numbers off the air, along with Cold Case and two comedies, they can still squeeze in only two new dramas (CM2 and Hawaii). I’m afraid something else will be getting the axe, I just can’t imagine what.
I think Numb3rs will be the only Friday show cancelled this year.
I hope all the comedies get renewed. I would be happy with one of the 3 having a short season and doing what Rules of Engagement already does.
Accidentally fits on CBS, while Christine would be perfect with Cougar Town. I wonder if ABC still has interest in them?
ok am i the only who thinks “csi: ny” and “ghost whisperer” are somehow in danger, also?
“medium” is performing almost like “ghost whisperer”
my prospect:
*cancel
COLD CASE – even a strong new lead in cant provide a boost to this aging show
NUMB3RS – definitely over especially one of the main cast is attached to a new tv pilot
not safe but also not in danger:
“Medium”- performing almost like ghost whisperer, sometimes .1 less than ghost whisperer, but ratings are not quite a.ok for cbs standards
“Ghost Whisperer”- as far as i remember, on several occasions the show is sometimes #3 in viewers.
“CSI: NY”- the weakest of one of the CBS show spinoff, criminal minds spinoff is on the way so cbs might canceled an aging spinoff franchise
“Gary Unmarried” and “Old Christine” – fates are according on how many new cbs comedy shows will be pick up