Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.55|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.61|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.64|
|Cold Case (P)||0.65|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.66|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.86|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.90|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.04|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.12|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.14|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.14|
|Two And A Half Men||1.46|
|Big Bang Theory||1.56|
Unlike ABC, which has only two scripted shows with reasonably unknown futures, CBS has 5 shows on its bubble: Numbers, Medium, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally on Purpose. In fact, Cold Case is the only current CBS show that I'm confident will be canceled. Some of those other 5 will be, but its hard to tell which at this point can squeeze into next season. And the success of Undercover Boss has likely reduced the number of survivors on that list by one from what it was likely to be just a few weeks ago.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
For all the hyperventilating Medium fans, I still doubt CBS will cancel two of its Friday shows in one season, but Tassler herself seemed to keep that potential open with her recent TCA remarks, so there is at least some danger to the show.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.