Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 28, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.54|
|Law & Order: (P)||0.94|
Last week I wondered whether Chuck's 2.2 adults 18-49 rating on February 8 was a hiccup or the start of a really bad ratings trend. The good news is a preliminary 2.4 last night indicates it was a hiccup. The bad news is that I think a 2.4 is right on the border between cancellation and renewal, and it came against a repeat last night.
Note that except for the preliminary results from last night there haven't been any scripted shows on NBC for more than 2 weeks, so there's no other changes until next week. The table above is identical to last week's since I am removing the weeks including the Winter Olympics from NBC's season average for my Index calculations.
With Parks & Recreation renewed for a third season, I think it's likely that NBC will renew as well. It's got the more difficult 8pm timeslot, and its doing about 10% better in the ratings. There are issues with bringing it back and new half hour comedy timeslots, but I think those will be overcome.
Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they've been all down. Since the new year it's had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0. Even for NBC, a drama with those ratings is likely getting canceled.
As horrible as the situation is, I've got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.