Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 28, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.54|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.59|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.62|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.64|
|Cold Case (P)||0.66|
|Accidentally On Purpose (P)||0.89|
|: Los Angeles (P)||1.10|
|: Miami (P)||1.12|
There's nobody outside of CBS that can say with a straight face they thought would be the big ratings hit it has been (maybe not even inside CBS). Certainly not me. I assumed the hour of the schedule it occupied this spring would be temporary, leaving another free hour for a scripted show next season.
Not so. It's done so well, a return next season is certain. That removes one more hour from CBS's schedule (for all or part of a season) that would otherwise have gone to a scripted show (sinceand The will also certainly return).
Which of these shows (or two) would have been the last renewed, but will now be the last canceled?
- New Adventures Of Old Christine
- Gary Unmarried
- Accidentally on Purpose
Perhapswill send its fans a sympathy card.
Cold Case is the only current CBS show that I'm confident will be canceled.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS's case I have removed the season effect of the week including thefor the calculation). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.