The Academy Awards (now The Oscars) expanded the number of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 this year in hopes of reviving the show's declining TV ratings. That still may have an effect in future years, but I'd attribute any increase in this year's ratings to the force of nature that has been Avatar.
The Academy Awards is still one of the biggest ratings events in television, and its ratings held up far better than most long running events until the turn of the 21st century. But a variety of changes in the last 10 years seem to have taken their toll, including shifting the broadcast from Monday at 9pm to Sunday at 8:30pm in 1999. 2008's show during the TV writers strike, at just over 32 million viewers, was the least viewed ever. Viewership did pick up a bit last year, but was still very low on an historical basis.
Considering the Academy Awards viewership peak was the last time James Cameron made a movie (Titanic, also the top grossing of all time, at the time), I'd be stunned if we didn't see an increase in the ratings this year. Forty million average viewers would not surprise me at all, but above 45 million would.
Academy Awards TV Ratings Data, 1953-2009:
| Year | Net | HH Rating | HH Share | Homes (million) | Viewers (million) | Best Picture | $/ 30 sec. ad | |
| 2009 | ABC | 20.6 | 31.0 | 23.567 | 36.310 | Slumdog Millionaire | $993,400 | |
| 2008 | ABC | 18.7 | 29.0 | 21.073 | 32.006 | No Country For Old Men | $1,820,000 | |
| 2007 | ABC | 23.6 | 37.0 | 26.317 | 40.172 | The Departed | $1,665,800 | |
| 2006 | ABC | 23.1 | 35.0 | 25.405 | 38.939 | Crash | $1,646,800 | |
| 2005 | ABC | 25.4 | 38.0 | 27.876 | 42.139 | Million Dollar Baby | $1,503,000 | |
| 2004 | ABC | 26.0 | 40.0 | 28.212 | 43.531 | Lord of the Rings: Return of the King | $1,503,100 | |
| 2003 | ABC | 20.4 | 32.0 | 21.769 | 33.043 | Chicago | $1,345,800 | |
| 2002 | ABC | 25.4 | 42.0 | 26.832 | 41.782 | A Beautiful Mind | $1,290,000 | |
| 2001 | ABC | 26.2 | 40.0 | 26.800 | 42.944 | Gladiator | $1,450,000 | |
| 2000 | ABC | 29.2 | 48.0 | 29.437 | 46.333 | American Beauty | $1,305,000 | |
| 1999 | ABC | 28.6 | 46.0 | 28.466 | 45.615 | Shakespeare in Love | $1,000,000 | |
| 1998 | ABC | 34.9 | 55.0 | 34.160 | 55.249 | Titanic | $950,000 | |
| 1997 | ABC | 27.4 | 46.0 | 26.531 | 40.075 | The English Patient | $850,000 | |
| 1996 | ABC | 30.3 | 50.0 | 29.016 | 44.867 | Braveheart | $795,000 | |
| 1995 | ABC | 32.5 | 53.0 | 31.005 | 48.279 | Forrest Gump | $700,000 | |
| 1994 | ABC | 31.1 | 49.0 | 29.296 | 45.083 | Schindler's List | $643,500 | |
| 1993 | ABC | 31.2 | 51.0 | 29.047 | 45.735 | Unforgiven | $607,800 | |
| 1992 | ABC | 29.8 | 50.0 | 27.446 | 44.406 | The Silence ofthe Lambs | ||
| 1991 | ABC | 28.4 | 48.0 | 26.440 | 42.727 | Dances With Wolves | ||
| 1990 | ABC | 27.9 | 48.0 | 25.700 | 40.375 | Driving Ms. Daisy | $450,000 | |
| 1989 | ABC | 29.8 | 50.0 | 26.940 | 42.619 | Rain Main | $375,000 | |
| 1988 | ABC | 29.4 | 49.0 | 26.050 | 42.227 | Last Emperor | $360,000 | |
| 1987 | ABC | 27.5 | 43.0 | 24.040 | 37.190 | Platoon | $335,000 | |
| 1986 | ABC | 27.3 | 43.0 | 23.450 | 37.757 | Out of Africa | $320,000 | |
| 1985 | ABC | 27.7 | 45.0 | 23.520 | 38.855 | Amadeus | $315,000 | |
| 1984 | ABC | 30.3 | 50.0 | 25.390 | 42.051 | Terms of Endearment | $275,000 | |
| 1983 | ABC | 38.0 | 59.0 | 31.654 | 53.235 | Gandhi | $245,000 | |
| 1982 | ABC | 33.6 | 53.0 | 27.384 | 46.245 | Chariots of Fire | ||
| 1981 | ABC | 31.0 | 58.0 | 24.120 | 39.919 | Ordinary People | ||
| 1980 | ABC | 33.7 | 55.0 | 25.713 | 48.978 | Kramer vs. Kramer | ||
| 1979 | ABC | 34.6 | 63.0 | 25.770 | 46.301 | Deer Hunter | ||
| 1978 | ABC | 36.3 | 68.0 | 26.460 | 48.501 | Annie Hall | ||
| 1977 | ABC | 31.1 | 63.0 | 22.140 | 39.719 | Rocky | ||
| 1976 | ABC | 35.5 | 64.0 | 24.710 | 46.751 | One... Coockoo's Nest | ||
| 1975 | NBC | 35.0 | 62.0 | 23.980 | 48.127 | GodfatherPart II | ||
| 1974 | NBC | 36.7 | 68.0 | 24.300 | 44.712 | The Sting | ||
| 1973 | NBC | 37.8 | 68.0 | 24.490 | The Godfather | |||
| 1972 | NBC | 38.7 | 70.0 | 24.030 | The French Connection | |||
| 1971 | NBC | 38.2 | 70.0 | 22.960 | Patton | |||
| 1970 | ABC | 43.4 | 78.0 | 25.390 | Midnight Cowboy | |||
| 1969 | ABC | 31.8 | 56.0 | 18.130 | Oliver! | |||
| 1968 | ABC | 34.4 | 67.3 | 19.260 | In the Heat of the Night | |||
| 1967 | ABC | 41.2 | 74.9 | 22.620 | A Man for All Seasons | |||
| 1966 | ABC | The Sound of Music | ||||||
| 1965 | ABC | 37.4 | 69.3 | 19.670 | My Fair Lady | |||
| 1964 | ABC | 37.0 | 71.3 | 18.980 | Tom Jones | |||
| 1963 | ABC | 37.2 | 71.0 | 18.526 | Lawrence of Arabia | |||
| 1962 | ABC | 37.1 | 75.4 | 18.179 | West Side Story | |||
| 1961 | ABC | The Apartment | ||||||
| 1960 | NBC | 45.8 | 82.4 | 20.430 | Ben-Hur | |||
| 1959 | NBC | 46.7 | 82.0 | 20.284 | Gigi | |||
| 1958 | NBC | 46.3 | 78.2 | 19.210 | The Bridge on The River Kwai | |||
| 1957 | NBC | 37.3 | 69.2 | 14.187 | Around The World In 80 Days | |||
| 1956 | NBC | 48.0 | 70.0 | 16.251 | Marty | |||
| 1955 | NBC | 45.0 | 57.0 | 18.785 | On the Waterfront | |||
| 1954 | NBC | 55.0 | 82.0 | 14.953 | From Here To Eternity | |||
| 1953 | NBC | 49.7 | 82.0 | 10.912 | The Greatest Show On Earth |
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*2006-2009 results are Live+SD, all previous years are Live viewing.
Nielsen Ratings Data: ©2010 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Edit: nielsenwire is out with a pre-Oscar post today. It included this nice chart (and Robert knows I'm a sucker for nice charts) with some comparisons of other recent awards shows. It also had some analysis on minority viewing compared with the nominated movies that you might want to check out.
If Avatar wins I will be so mad…Inglorious Basterds all the way!
If Avatar wins I will be so mad…Inglorious Basterds all the way!
I think your estimate is way too low.
Expect at least 50 million. There is a lot of hype for this one.
I think your estimate is way too low.
Expect at least 50 million. There is a lot of hype for this one.
Hurt Locker should win Best Picture and Best Director, it was a much better film than Avatar which had to be one of the most predictable storylines I’ve ever seen! It was visually spectacular but wouldnt watch it again! The other films in the catagory dont stand a chance!
Hurt Locker should win Best Picture and Best Director, it was a much better film than Avatar which had to be one of the most predictable storylines I’ve ever seen! It was visually spectacular but wouldnt watch it again! The other films in the catagory dont stand a chance!
I think it’s a close race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, but my money’s on Avatar winning Best Picture and The Hurt Locker winning Best Director but it would be good to see Hurt Locker win best picture just to see James Cameron’s face.
It’s not going to be a landslide for Avatar as it won the Golden Globes for best Film and Director but lost to The Hurt Locker at the BAFTAs so it’s not as easy to predict.
I think it’s a close race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, but my money’s on Avatar winning Best Picture and The Hurt Locker winning Best Director but it would be good to see Hurt Locker win best picture just to see James Cameron’s face.
It’s not going to be a landslide for Avatar as it won the Golden Globes for best Film and Director but lost to The Hurt Locker at the BAFTAs so it’s not as easy to predict.
I hope Avatar doesn’t win simply because it will upset the masses that turn in, thus driving the ratings down for future years
“Why watch? They just screw over the movies that I have seen”
Now, if only there were a way to turn this anger against reality shows in general and not just award shows….
I hope Avatar doesn’t win simply because it will upset the masses that turn in, thus driving the ratings down for future years
“Why watch? They just screw over the movies that I have seen”
Now, if only there were a way to turn this anger against reality shows in general and not just award shows….
I can’t, for the life of me, understand how anyone can enjoy the type of films that typically win like Slumdog Millionare and likely The Hurt Locker. So incredibly boring and not the least bit entertaining like movies are supposed to be…
I can’t, for the life of me, understand how anyone can enjoy the type of films that typically win like Slumdog Millionare and likely The Hurt Locker. So incredibly boring and not the least bit entertaining like movies are supposed to be…
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I’d also prefer to see it go to Inglorious Basterds. Anything but Avatar will make me happy though.
I’d also prefer to see it go to Inglorious Basterds. Anything but Avatar will make me happy though.
Avatar almost has to win Best Picture this year regardless of whether its the best movie or not. Just how much trouble will the Oscars be in next year if people tune in and The Hurt Locker (a film they’ve never seen) wins over Avatar? This is the downside to the mainstream pull of the big movies, if they don’t win then people are going to be less inclined to tune in the following year.
Avatar almost has to win Best Picture this year regardless of whether its the best movie or not. Just how much trouble will the Oscars be in next year if people tune in and The Hurt Locker (a film they’ve never seen) wins over Avatar? This is the downside to the mainstream pull of the big movies, if they don’t win then people are going to be less inclined to tune in the following year.
I just hope ABC pulls up ~50 million viewers and advertise their other shows, mostly the Sunday ones.
I just hope ABC pulls up ~50 million viewers and advertise their other shows, mostly the Sunday ones.