Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 7, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | .55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.59 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.64 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.65 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.65 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.84 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.89 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.99 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.04 |
| The Mentalist | 1.09 |
| CSI (P) | 1.10 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.10 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.11 |
| Rules of Engagement | 1.13 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.13 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.28 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.47 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.55 |
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Again, CBS has the most shows on its "bubble", and again there's the most uncertainty about which will get the first bullet in the head, and which might escape one entirely.
If I had to pick today, this would be my firing squad order, beginning with the most likely to go. Towards the bottom of the list, the likelihood of escaping a bullet entirely grows significantly.
Last minute update: Undercover Boss has been renewed. Add an extra bullet to your weapon.
- Cold Case (certainly condemned)
- Numbers
- New Adventures Of Old Christine
- Accidentally on Purpose
- Gary Unmarried
- Medium (CBS may well be out of bullets by now)
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Numb3rs and Medium.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on 4 week averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS's case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
GU’s barely announced (if it ever was) episode reduction has to rank it in the front of the firing line for comedies, imo. And while Numbers & CC are both certain to be canned, I don’t recall anyone on CC being cast in pilots.
GU’s barely announced (if it ever was) episode reduction has to rank it in the front of the firing line for comedies, imo. And while Numbers & CC are both certain to be canned, I don’t recall anyone on CC being cast in pilots.
Great pictures for these last few R/C I’s, Bill.
I hope AoP survives, it’s an entertaining show. It’s a lot funnier and has better acting than Gary Unmarried. Can’t wait ’til April 1st (I get to see the next episode, plus there’s the added bonus of finding out the ratings.)
With the whole CSI thing, I think New York will come out a top performer among the three next season. It holds on to a good amount of Criminal Minds, and has been growing recently.
Great pictures for these last few R/C I’s, Bill.
I hope AoP survives, it’s an entertaining show. It’s a lot funnier and has better acting than Gary Unmarried. Can’t wait ’til April 1st (I get to see the next episode, plus there’s the added bonus of finding out the ratings.)
With the whole CSI thing, I think New York will come out a top performer among the three next season. It holds on to a good amount of Criminal Minds, and has been growing recently.
CBS should cancel Medium. Since they put it on the Friday lune up, GW and Numb3rs have started to fall.
CBS should cancel Medium. Since they put it on the Friday lune up, GW and Numb3rs have started to fall.
Every show on this list is GONE. CBS will need new programs in these slots: Sunday, 10-11; Wednesday, 8-9; Friday 9-10; Friday, 10-11. Total: 4 hours of new shows.
I see HAWAII FIVE-O 2.0 getting the Sunday slot (or Tuesdays at 10 if THE GOOD WIFE moves to Sunday); RULES OF ENGAGEMENT moves to Wednesday at 8, followed by a new sitcom; Friday gets 2 new dramas, one being the CRIMINAL MINDS spin-off (unless that show gets Wednesdays at 10, moving CSI: NY to Fridays at 9). THE MENTALIST and the original CSI will be trading time slots.
Monday will see yet another new underperforming, bland sitcom at 8:30.
Every show on this list is GONE. CBS will need new programs in these slots: Sunday, 10-11; Wednesday, 8-9; Friday 9-10; Friday, 10-11. Total: 4 hours of new shows.
I see HAWAII FIVE-O 2.0 getting the Sunday slot (or Tuesdays at 10 if THE GOOD WIFE moves to Sunday); RULES OF ENGAGEMENT moves to Wednesday at 8, followed by a new sitcom; Friday gets 2 new dramas, one being the CRIMINAL MINDS spin-off (unless that show gets Wednesdays at 10, moving CSI: NY to Fridays at 9). THE MENTALIST and the original CSI will be trading time slots.
Monday will see yet another new underperforming, bland sitcom at 8:30.
ADD TO THE ABOVE POST:
GHOST WHISPERER will be renewed – a “mercy” renewal for a show that did well for the network for a number of years. Next season will be its last.
ADD TO THE ABOVE POST:
GHOST WHISPERER will be renewed – a “mercy” renewal for a show that did well for the network for a number of years. Next season will be its last.
I am happy Medium is on the bottom of the totem pole. Medium has been doing consistantly well(at least for a Friday night) especially this past week.
I don’t really see Undercover Boss doing well, after this season.
How many hours does the network have to free up so new pilots can air?
Medium isn’t getting dumped.
I am happy Medium is on the bottom of the totem pole. Medium has been doing consistantly well(at least for a Friday night) especially this past week.
I don’t really see Undercover Boss doing well, after this season.
How many hours does the network have to free up so new pilots can air?
Medium isn’t getting dumped.
I cannot understand why GW is labeled as safer than Medium. I mean, both shows have the EXACTLY ratings on numbers and demo. Plus, Medium seems cheaper to produce.
And I’m not ever talking about quality. GW sucks, the fact it have found an audience is impressive.
I cannot understand why GW is labeled as safer than Medium. I mean, both shows have the EXACTLY ratings on numbers and demo. Plus, Medium seems cheaper to produce.
And I’m not ever talking about quality. GW sucks, the fact it have found an audience is impressive.
@Shimbo,
According to Nina Tassler, CBS intends to premiere 2-3 dramas and 1-2 comedies.
For the dramas, canceling Cold Case and Numb3rs gives them 2 slots. The third is a bit more difficult.
For the comedies, they need to cancel at least one, probably 2, and/or move 2 to midseason
@Shimbo,
According to Nina Tassler, CBS intends to premiere 2-3 dramas and 1-2 comedies.
For the dramas, canceling Cold Case and Numb3rs gives them 2 slots. The third is a bit more difficult.
For the comedies, they need to cancel at least one, probably 2, and/or move 2 to midseason
It doesn’t help Numb3rs at all that two of their leads have other shows lined up already.
It doesn’t help Numb3rs at all that two of their leads have other shows lined up already.