Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 7, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Beautiful Life: TBL (P)||0.49*|
|Melrose Place (P)||0.57|
|Gossip Girl (P)||0.85|
|Smallville (F), (P)||1.02|
|One Tree Hill (P)||1.06|
|Life Unexpected (P)||1.08|
|Supernatural (S), (P)||1.09|
|Vampire Diaries (P)||1.45|
At least for the Renew / Cancel Index, show uncertainty is fun, and Life Unexpected serves up the first real (ratings driven) uncertainty for a CW show in two seasons. Now that it's no longer scheduled to repeat each week, there will be even more interest in its once a week ratings. Will the lack of repeats boost its single episode ratings? Last night's numbers suggest no, but next week may be the real test.
Life Unexpected's adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I'd be confident of its renewal. Note that Life Unexpected's ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it's difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That's why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.08.
One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground. Conventional wisdom is that One Tree Hill renewal is dependent on contractual issues. It has the ratings for renewal.
Melrose Place has no uncertainty behind it. It will be canceled.
*I have frozen The Beautiful Life's Index at its value the week of cancellation.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.