Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 7, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.57 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.67 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.73 |
| Law & Order (Monday), (P) | 0.80 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.81 |
| Community | 0.87 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.91 |
| Chuck | 0.97 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.98 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.10 |
| Parenthood (P) | 1.24 |
| The Office (P) | 1.54 |
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This post is not only dedicated to, but also mostly written by, our longtime commenter Holly:
NBC does NOT need to renew any of their low-rated shows just to fill space. Out of 19 hours (not including Saturday), they have 4 covered by football, 2 by Biggest Loser, 2 by the Thursday comedies, 2 by the L&Os (which are very likely renewals), and at least 1 by Dateline. That’s 11 hours, so that leaves NBC with only 8 hours to fill (less if Chuck and/or Parenthood does well enough for renewal).
ABC launched 7 hours of new programming this fall, so 6-8 doesn’t seem extreme for a network looking to “rebuild”.
Couldn't have said it better myself. As woeful a situation as NBC is in, it doesn't need to keep any ratings losers just to fill the schedule space. Fans should base their hopes on something else, like tea leaf readings.
News that Community, 30 Rock and The Office have all been renewed, only Chuck is reasonably left on NBC's "bubble". Ratings indicate that Chuck is still leaning on the good side of renewal, but last night's (preliminary) 2.3 rating didn't help things.
Edit: Oops! Of course Parenthood is still on NBC's bubble. I simply forgot to mention it. Impending Alzheimer's I tell you!
Some would put Heroes on NBC's bubble too. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Aww, I feel special :blush:
But…could you close the parenthesis at the end of the first paragraph (my fault, not yours).
Aww, I feel special :blush:
But…could you close the parenthesis at the end of the first paragraph (my fault, not yours).
Trauma’s as good as dead after last night’s showing.
Trauma’s as good as dead after last night’s showing.
I understand your point about Heroes but i feel there is a quite a good chance of Nbc giving Heroes a 13 episode order for a “close up all story lines” event that might give out some decent ratings.
Those episode would give them a chance to somewhat anchor a night where they will launch 1-2 new High Profile shows.
I understand your point about Heroes but i feel there is a quite a good chance of Nbc giving Heroes a 13 episode order for a “close up all story lines” event that might give out some decent ratings.
Those episode would give them a chance to somewhat anchor a night where they will launch 1-2 new High Profile shows.
Holly – You deserve the mention. You are always a breath of fresh air in a place usually full of people being defensive and using words like “Haters, international sales, petitions, DVD revenue” to defend their shows.
But yea, I would expect that Chuck will get renewed, and Heroes SHOULD be cancelled; however, NBC would see this as failure, and sometimes they like to live in denial. They MAY give the show a 13 episode conclusion, though for the life of me, I don’t know why they would do that. Does the show’s creator have blackmail photos? Seriously, with those ratings, how could it even be considered for a renewal?!
I think if Who You Do Think You Are maintains viewers from its debut it will get another 6 episode pick up.
Yay Holly!
Holly – You deserve the mention. You are always a breath of fresh air in a place usually full of people being defensive and using words like “Haters, international sales, petitions, DVD revenue” to defend their shows.
But yea, I would expect that Chuck will get renewed, and Heroes SHOULD be cancelled; however, NBC would see this as failure, and sometimes they like to live in denial. They MAY give the show a 13 episode conclusion, though for the life of me, I don’t know why they would do that. Does the show’s creator have blackmail photos? Seriously, with those ratings, how could it even be considered for a renewal?!
I think if Who You Do Think You Are maintains viewers from its debut it will get another 6 episode pick up.
Yay Holly!
You also have to factor in possible returns for unscripted shows like Who Do You Think You Are (which debuted well enough for a Friday) and The Marriage Ref (which has enough star power to get a second season with a mid-2 I’d guess), which would take away another two hours if they both land in the fall.
Right now for fall I’d guess NBC has two hours to play with on Monday, two hours to play with on Wednesday and one (or maybe two) hours to play with on Friday. Possibly an hour on Thursday depending on how The Marriage Ref does. So I’ve got 5-7 hours of slots to fill for the fall, which is even less than Holly is predicting.
Having said that I think that’s a lot less than NBC should be playing with. As much as I like Community renewing it (and Parks for that matter) feels like a mistake and the sentimental renewal of Law & Order is a mistake.
You also have to factor in possible returns for unscripted shows like Who Do You Think You Are (which debuted well enough for a Friday) and The Marriage Ref (which has enough star power to get a second season with a mid-2 I’d guess), which would take away another two hours if they both land in the fall.
Right now for fall I’d guess NBC has two hours to play with on Monday, two hours to play with on Wednesday and one (or maybe two) hours to play with on Friday. Possibly an hour on Thursday depending on how The Marriage Ref does. So I’ve got 5-7 hours of slots to fill for the fall, which is even less than Holly is predicting.
Having said that I think that’s a lot less than NBC should be playing with. As much as I like Community renewing it (and Parks for that matter) feels like a mistake and the sentimental renewal of Law & Order is a mistake.
I don’t think a 2.0 rating is a very good anchor, unless you mean “oh no the anchor fell and now there’s a big-ass hole in the boat.”
Trauma was as good as dead long before it was canceled the first time.
Although it does raise the question of whether it was uncanceled because of Day One, or if NBC knew Comcast was going to take the hit to get the affiliates in line even back then…
I don’t think a 2.0 rating is a very good anchor, unless you mean “oh no the anchor fell and now there’s a big-ass hole in the boat.”
Trauma was as good as dead long before it was canceled the first time.
Although it does raise the question of whether it was uncanceled because of Day One, or if NBC knew Comcast was going to take the hit to get the affiliates in line even back then…
NBC can do a lot better next season, they’ve got some big names behind and in front of the camera for a couple of pilots so their line-up is fine for the rest of the season, but come Fall, NBC should have no reason not to do better than it is now.
NBC’S “NEED-TO-FILL” FALL TIMESLOTS: Mondays at 9; Mondays at 10; Wednesdays at 9; Thursdays at 10; Fridays at 8 (unless DATELINE goes to 2 hours). TOTAL = 5 hours (maximum).
The only show moving to a new time slot will be LAW & ORDER, which heads to Fridays at 10. Thus, Fridays could see DATELINE 8 – 10, followed by L&O.