Season To Date Ratings
When NBC overtook ABC for third place in the all important adults 18-49 ratings, I wondered whether they could get caught by ABC before the end of the season.
After just one post-Olympic week, the race looks to be tilting toward ABC more than I initially guessed. NBC pulled out all the stops last week and scored just a 2.1 18-49 rating. There is no way they can maintain that weekly average going forward considering all the special programming last week. ABC now needs to beat NBC on a weekly basis by only 0.5 ratings points in the final 11 weeks of the season. If ABC can maintain a weekly 2.7 rating (same as a typical week last fall), I think they push NBC back to fourth, even with the Winter Olympics.
In the gold and silver medals, Fox is certain to retain the adults 18-49 season ratings title for yet another broadcast season. Their 0.4 ratings point lead is insurmountable by CBS (who is just as certain to keep second place).
In other races, CBS-Fox are going to stay 1-2 in average viewership. Fox is a lock for #1 in adults 18-34, although perhaps NBC can lose its grip on #2. Fox could challenge CBS for #1 for adults 25-54.
I include numbers in the Season To Date chart that show the season to date ratings minus a few non-annual events for CBS and NBC.
- The xCBS number is the CBS season to date ratings average minus the entire Super Bowl 2010 week.
- The xNBC number is the NBC season to date ratings average minus the 3 weeks with any Winter Olympics telecasts.
Unfortunately, with the data I get, I can do no better than exclude entire weeks. Those numbers should not be considered "official", and there are always errors possible. They're meant to help answer the question "How would CBS (or NBC) be doing without those non-annual events".
Ratings Increase / Decrease: 2009-10 Season vs. 2008-9 Season
- CBS is up across the board vs. last season, due to boost they received during Super Bowl week. Without it, they'd be down across the board in the demo ratings.
- Even with the Winter Olympics boost, NBC is down 3% vs. last year in adults 18-49.
- ABC is down vs. last season by 7% in adults 18-49. Makes life tough on their PR team!
- Fox continues up vs. last season across the board due to lots of factors.
- CW looks up nicely in some demos vs. last season, but that's deceptive, see below.
I've included some new numbers in the Season To Season change chart that show the season to date ratings minus a few non-annual events for CBS and NBC.
- The xCBS number is the CBS season to season ratings change minus the entire Super Bowl 2010 week.
- The xNBC number is the NBC season to season ratings change minus all 3 weeks that included any Winter Olympics this year, and the week that included the Super Bowl 2009 last year.
Unfortunately, with the data I get, I can do no better than exclude entire weeks. Those numbers should not be considered "official", and there are always errors possible. They're meant to help answer the question "How would CBS (or NBC) be doing without those non-annual events". Note that I lack the data to do those adjusted comparisons for average viewership.
In looking at the CW's ratings averages note that they would be about 20% ahead of last season across the board if they'd just kept their Monday-Friday numbers steady because of the automatic boost to their ratings averages just by dumping Sunday nights. Compared to last season, the CW's Monday-Friday ratings averages are down, but don't be surprised if the CW's crack PR troops can pull one over on the credulous TV media.
You can see past week's broadcast network primetime season to date average TV ratings results here.
Each rating point is a percentage of the US TV population in that demographic group and equals: 2.90 million viewers, 1.32 million adults 18-49, 0.68 million adults 18-34 and 1.24 million adults 25-54.
Note that the chart includes RATINGS not VIEWERSHIP as was typical in our weekly network ratings posts prior to July, 2009.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
Bill – did the Oscars tip ABC significantly at all or is it all just the trend.
Bill – did the Oscars tip ABC significantly at all or is it all just the trend.
Katie, the Oscars, as expected, gave ABC a big margin last week over NBC, but what was more telling to me in the 3rd place race was how relatively badly (2.1 rating) NBC did last week with all their special programming (2xLaw & Order, 2xSVU, 1 hour Office, Parenthood premiere, Marriage Ref timeslot premiere).
I guessed NBC might be able to do a 2.0 rating on “regular” weeks for the rest of the spring. That seems highly unlikely now.
Katie, the Oscars, as expected, gave ABC a big margin last week over NBC, but what was more telling to me in the 3rd place race was how relatively badly (2.1 rating) NBC did last week with all their special programming (2xLaw & Order, 2xSVU, 1 hour Office, Parenthood premiere, Marriage Ref timeslot premiere).
I guessed NBC might be able to do a 2.0 rating on “regular” weeks for the rest of the spring. That seems highly unlikely now.
Right on! ABC is going back into the game! NBC will come in 4th where it deserves to be after such poor decision making this season.
(Again, it’s not that I particularly love the network, it’s just that most of the shows I watch air on ABC.)
Right on! ABC is going back into the game! NBC will come in 4th where it deserves to be after such poor decision making this season.
(Again, it’s not that I particularly love the network, it’s just that most of the shows I watch air on ABC.)
What does NBC have that can compete? Pretty much “The Office” and “Biggest Loser”.
NBC needs to start churning out hits. “The Office” will be in it’s seventh season (which could possibly be it’s final) and “30 Rock” isn’t the ratings “hit” it was last season. And I don’t think “Parks and Recreation” will grow, although it is an awesome show.
“Community,” I think could be a hit, if given the time to grow.
What does NBC have that can compete? Pretty much “The Office” and “Biggest Loser”.
NBC needs to start churning out hits. “The Office” will be in it’s seventh season (which could possibly be it’s final) and “30 Rock” isn’t the ratings “hit” it was last season. And I don’t think “Parks and Recreation” will grow, although it is an awesome show.
“Community,” I think could be a hit, if given the time to grow.
Bill, keep in mind that NBC had a horrific Sunday last week (which accounts for 4 of their 22 primetime hours, or over 18% of their ratings average). With Celebrity Apprentice, and to a lesser degree A Minute To Win It, that portion of their week should be notably stronger. I don’t think they will drop by a huge amount from that 2.1, and depending on the stregnth of this season’s Celebrity Apprentice, they may be able to improve slightly.
Bill, keep in mind that NBC had a horrific Sunday last week (which accounts for 4 of their 22 primetime hours, or over 18% of their ratings average). With Celebrity Apprentice, and to a lesser degree A Minute To Win It, that portion of their week should be notably stronger. I don’t think they will drop by a huge amount from that 2.1, and depending on the stregnth of this season’s Celebrity Apprentice, they may be able to improve slightly.
the128boy, very good points. It will be interesting to see how the gains from those 4 hours balance against the losses from the “special” hours from last week.
the128boy, very good points. It will be interesting to see how the gains from those 4 hours balance against the losses from the “special” hours from last week.
NBC needs to start churning out hits.
Ahh yes, if only it were that simple.
NBC needs to start churning out hits.
Ahh yes, if only it were that simple.
Bill… how come Fox can claim victory over CBS when CBS and the other networks program so many more hours. Do you think there may come a time when the 10pm slot on network TV is gone completely?
Bill… how come Fox can claim victory over CBS when CBS and the other networks program so many more hours. Do you think there may come a time when the 10pm slot on network TV is gone completely?
jim, you are correct that comparing Fox’s averages in 15 primetime hours to ABC, NBC, CBS’s 22 primetime hours is apples to oranges (even more so for the CW which programs only 10 primetime hours), but that’s the industry practice, so that’s what we do. I don’t actually calculate these averages myself, they are supplied by Nielsen.
I’m not sure how you’d compare them otherwise even if I could make the numbers appear magically myself. Just compare averages across the hours that Fox programs? There would be folks claiming that CBS’ averages would be higher if you included its 10pm hour (that’s just a guess, I haven’t actually run the numbers).
Average 18-49 ratings pretty directly determine the average price per spot each network can get for their primetime advertising. So while Fox’s average ad price is higher, the other 3 get to sell ads across another 7 hours of primetime (of course, they have costs associated with producing those 7 hours too).
jim, you are correct that comparing Fox’s averages in 15 primetime hours to ABC, NBC, CBS’s 22 primetime hours is apples to oranges (even more so for the CW which programs only 10 primetime hours), but that’s the industry practice, so that’s what we do. I don’t actually calculate these averages myself, they are supplied by Nielsen.
I’m not sure how you’d compare them otherwise even if I could make the numbers appear magically myself. Just compare averages across the hours that Fox programs? There would be folks claiming that CBS’ averages would be higher if you included its 10pm hour (that’s just a guess, I haven’t actually run the numbers).
Average 18-49 ratings pretty directly determine the average price per spot each network can get for their primetime advertising. So while Fox’s average ad price is higher, the other 3 get to sell ads across another 7 hours of primetime (of course, they have costs associated with producing those 7 hours too).
i know it would involve even more number crunching than you already do…
but how does the boost NBC got from SB XLIII last year compare to the 17 day Winter Olympics boost this year?
i know it would involve even more number crunching than you already do…
but how does the boost NBC got from SB XLIII last year compare to the 17 day Winter Olympics boost this year?