Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 14, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Better Off Ted | 0.42 |
| Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) | 0.46 |
| The Deep End | 0.53 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| Scrubs (P) | 0.56 |
| Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) | 0.57 |
| the forgotten | 0.61 |
| Eastwick | 0.62 |
| The Middle | 0.76 |
| Castle (P) | 0.81 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 1.01 |
| FlashForward (P) | 1.02 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.11 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.11 |
| Modern Family | 1.18 |
| V | 1.41 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.57 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.65 |
| Lost (final season) | 1.72 |
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FlashForward fans have been waiting since mid-December for a new episode of the show, and we've been waiting to see what the ratings will be. That wait will be over on Friday morning, when we get the ratings for two hours of new FlashForward on Thursday. It's got to increase from the 2.1 adults 18-49 rating it ended with in the fall or it will certainly be canceled. While fans may care about the ratings of the one hour clip show tonight, I don't attach any significance to them since its a non-standard show in a non-standard time slot.
I continue to like Castle's renewal chances.
V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because its fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I've colored the show orange in the table to indicate that its future is in doubt.
Of course Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives will be renewed.
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The ABC boneyard:
The Deep End has ended its season and will certainly not be coming back.
There was a bit of hubbub over the weekend when ABC.com had a graphic noting this week's Scrubs was the series finale. It said that as late as Monday night still says that now, my guess is that's not a mistake if it's been up there so long. Mo Ryan of the Chicago Tribune gave the Better Off Ted "save our show" campaign some press last week, but she's just raising false hopes. It is certain to be canceled.
Ugly Betty, Hank and Eastwick are already officially canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.
I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I predict a 1.8 when Flashforward returns, V i predict a 2.9
I have a feeling come Friday we will be making fun of FF's ratings. I really don't see it re-premiering very well. ABC has done a lot of on Network promoting for it, but with it being the only new thing on ABC Thursday night in primetime, they aren't helping it any. Also I'm betting that tonight's FF recap show after Lost will bomb.
My guess for spring premiere for FlashFoward:
7 million viewers and 1.9(18-49)
V
I agree. If it wasn't great at first, I don't really see many, if any, people coming back. It may get a slight bump or then again it could (although its unlikely) pull The Deep End-like ratings.
I agree tonight's clip show is meaningless. Will pull similar numbers to the forgotten.
Thursday is the opening night of the NCAA basketball tournament. March Madness is going to crush everything else.
Next Thursday is the start of the NCAA regional semifinals, aka the Sweet Sixteen. So FF's first two weeks are opposite prime-time sports. FF is doomed.
ABC's [scrubs] site DOESN'T say anymore that this week's episode is the series finale. good sign for scrubs renewal?!? i sure hope so;)
It doesn't matter if the site say's it is or is not the series finale, Scrubs fate is pretty much guaranteed that it's gone.
Well, this is the same network that kept According to Jim on the air several seasons after it stopped getting reasonable numbers…
Out of the renewed and likely to be renewed; Brothers and Sisters is the only one I have more than the slightest interest in; but since it comes on Saturdays, I still wont be watching it that often.
Did According to Jim ever get reasonable numbers?
On a FlashForward and V note, I don't hold out much hope for either of them to be honest. The question for ABC now becomes does the success of Modern Family allow them to once again scrap almost everything they've debuted for the season and start all over again next season?
Very true, but when ABC was doing that with According to Jim they were really scraping the bottom of the barrel comedy wise. I would think that now that they have a decent performing block of comedies on Wednesday that they won't keep making those poor choices.
I think melbye's predictions are about spot on. I'll be generous and say a 2.0 for FF and a 3.0 for V when they first return, but a steady drop for both shows until their season (and for FF, at least, SERIES) finales. I think FF will flirt with 1.4 before they pull out the “quiet success” tag or something and privately start looking for how to fill its slot next year.
But we shall see. Friday's news should be very interesting.
Why did ABC renew Brothers & Sisters its ratings aren't really that great. I mean a 2.8 isn't going to help ABC grow. It needs a new drama on sunday, one that strong and compelling to take the place of B&S which isn't going to grow next year (I bet!) due to its falling ratings. Though I think Desperate Housewives might average a 4.0 next fall, surely it would be better to launch a potential hit after DH than a 2.8-3.0 from B&S. I mean its ABC's last chace to cash in on Desperate Housewives's ratings because they become too low to create potential 10/9c hits. Unless ABC moves DH to 8/7c and uses it to boost a new drama at 9/8c which I highly doubt.
Regarding FF and V, being both new shows, these long hiatuses do a lot more harm than good. They weren't quite a success before, and freezing them for months took a lot of the chances they had. As much as I like both shows, I think they're doomed.
I think that the long hiatus will hurt FF much more than V. ABC at least had the chance to advertise V as a 4 episode “preview” but FF was just put into a hiatus with little warning. I don't think it's going to make a lot of difference, but at least viewers knew it was coming from the beginning.
I see no reason why FF would post a sudden turnaround. I'll go with a 2.0 average.
V is tough to estimate. It kept all of the 3.0 going from week 3 to week 4, but it has been off the air for months and at a later timeslot. On the other hand, the Lost audience will give it a try – even the utter mismatch Forgotten picked up .6 or .7 for the first half hour airing after Lost. So I will say 3.2.
I suppose ABC pretty much has most series settled either canceled or renewed. :Looks like ABC will have a bunch of new series in the Fall again. As for V and Flashforward both series renewals depends on what happens when they return, I'm a big fan of V and hope for renweal but the drop from the first episode to 4th was pretty big and being in the post Lost death-slot isn't going to help. Also anyone else notice how much more competitive the Tuesday 10 p.m slot is ?
I'm a big fan of V and hope for renweal but the drop from the first episode to 4th was pretty big and being in the post Lost death-slot isn't going to help.
V is the first show that truly meshes with Lost. Life on Mars sort of did, but I don't think Lost killed it, it just wasn't a great show. Also it helps that the star of V, was a very popular member of the cast of Lost.
I predict a 2.6 for FlashForward's return and a 2.9 for V!
I very much agree with the conventional wisdom regarding FlashForward and V. Perhaps FlashForward will be helped by the show tonight, the commercials devoted to it, the recent DVD collection of the episodes so far, or even the fact that the long lay-off could cause viewers to forget why they stopped watching in the Fall.
But even if any of those prove to be the case, the show's quality needs to rebound quickly to remain above 2.0. I think that V has similar challenges, but it left off at a higher point ratings wise, and imo it's a better show, which will hopefully result in better ratings.