FlashForward: Now, Or Never

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows

Written By

March 16th, 2010

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 14, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Better Off Ted 0.42
Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) 0.46
The Deep End 0.53
Hank 0.54*
Scrubs (P) 0.56
Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) 0.57
the forgotten 0.61
Eastwick 0.62
The Middle 0.76
Castle (P) 0.81
Cougar Town (P) 1.01
FlashForward (P) 1.02
Private Practice (P) 1.11
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.11
Modern Family 1.18
V 1.41
Grey's Anatomy (P) 1.57
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.65
Lost (final season) 1.72

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FlashForward fans have been waiting since mid-December for a new episode of the show, and we've been waiting to see what the ratings will be. That wait will be over on Friday morning, when we get the ratings for two hours of new FlashForward on Thursday. It's got to increase from the 2.1 adults 18-49 rating it ended with in the fall or it will certainly be canceled. While fans may care about the ratings of the one hour clip show tonight, I don't attach any significance to them since its a non-standard show in a non-standard time slot.

I continue to like Castle's renewal chances.

V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because its fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I've colored the show orange in the table to indicate that its future is in doubt.

Of course Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives will be renewed.

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The ABC boneyard:

The Deep End has ended its season and will certainly not be coming back.

There was a bit of hubbub over the weekend when ABC.com had a graphic noting this week's Scrubs was the series finale.  It said that as late as Monday night still says that now, my guess is that's not a mistake if it's been up there so long. Mo Ryan of the Chicago Tribune gave the Better Off Ted "save our show" campaign some press last week, but she's just raising false hopes. It is certain to be canceled.

Ugly Betty, Hank and Eastwick are already officially canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for  shows either with either improving :mrgreen: or deteriorating :oops: Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.

I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.

What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

 
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