Comments on: In Preliminary Monday Numbers Leno Topped Letterman Again

By: chaos amoeba

chaos amoeba — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:29:31 +0000

I would say it's highly unlikely that people are being paid to turn on their Nielsen sets, switch to a channel, and come back periodically to make sure it's still registering.

You're earlier point that it is beneficial to be skeptical about any information we're presented, but the belief that the source of these errors are motivated by negative character traits of humanity is a bit of a stretch. The switch from diaries to recording devices was likely not motivated by people lying as much as it was motivated by people forgetting or misremembering as well as being unwilling to be bothered by the hassle required to write and submit a diary. Moreover, data collection in that manner is much cheaper.

Yes, systematic error is likely present in a number of things, but the source of that error is generally far less Machiavellian than you seem to suggest.

By: chaos amoeba

chaos amoeba — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:29:31 +0000

By: iconklee

iconklee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:21:18 +0000

Like everything else in these hard economic times, people's opinions (and viewing habits) can be bought. All any Nielsen viewer has to do is: enter his code and turn the channel to the network he/she is being INCENTIVIZED to watch. And then. not watch.
Anybody think the American people are not larcenous enough to be induced to go “this way” or “that”?
All ratings can really show is a trend — whether shows are doing better (or worse) based on past performance.
To be truly accurate, Nielsen should demand all its paid viewers answer “content questions” about each show they claimed to be watching.
Before people meters, networks always considered the weeks between Christmas and New Year's to be “the dead zone.” There were no numbers back then (1980's) to document viewers, so the agencies smart enough to realize how much an audience there really was bought a ton of time time at greatly reduced rates — and cleaned up. You didn't need ratings to tell one that people watched TV those two weeks of the year. Clients advertising during those two weeks literally “cleaned up” sales-wise. In my opinion, it was the last great gift TV networks and affiliates gave to advertisers.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:05:22 +0000

NO, JOSHUA. LENO MERELY BLACKMAILED NBC THREATENING TO “GO TO ANOTHER NETWORK” UNLESS THEY FOUND SOME SLOT FOR HIM.
FIVE YEARS AGO, WHEN NBC APPROACHED JAY ABOUT HIS “RETIREMENT” SO THEY COULD INSURE CONAN DIDN'T WALK BACK THEN (as he should have it's now apparent): back THEN, JAY AGREED TO RETIRE his mantle at the Tonight Show. THAT WAS AN AGREEMENT (to anybody ELSE but Leno).
Carson was unceremoniously “dumped” and then treated INEXCUSABLY AND HEINOUSLY BY LENO & HIS HANDLER (Kushner). NEITHER HAD THE GRACE to even mention Johnny (or God forbid, THANK JOHNNY for giving Jay THE CHANCE to succeed him). Helen got cancer and died a few years AFTER Jay DUMPED HER. Leaving her son with NOTHING.
Johnny had the CLASS to walk away when HIS Tonight Show ended. Leno will NEVER leave of his own accord. WHY is that? WHY is he so desperate to spew out the SAME OLD GARBAGE night after night? WHY is neither HE — or anyone on his writing staff CLEVER ENOUGH TO RE-INVENT Leno AND/OR his stale show?
The sheer AFFRONT-ERY of Leno agreeing to “RETIRE” from the Tonight Show FIVE YEARS AGO … and then HANG ON by blackmailing NBC with the prospect of his “moving to another network” IF NBC didn't find him another SLOT …
Instead, Jay's MASSIVE EGO (matches his chin) let him THINK he could replace all the beloved 10PM DRAMAS. And he had his CHANCE — but BLEW IT BIG TIME … because he COULDN'T DO ANYTHING NEW OR EXCITING, which was a dismal RE- HASH of The Tonight Show. Which ruined any chance Conan had to BUILD AN AUDIENCE because of his LOUSY lead-in.
If Leno had any sense (or humility) … he should have told NBC he'd do a ONE HOUR A WEEK show that would knock their socks off! And focused ALL HIS ENERGIES (and his staff's) doing the BEST 1-HOUR TV show since Ed Sullivan and Jackie Gleason and Milton Berle, or Diana Shore. BUT NO: HE just regurgitated his old stuff FIVE TIMES A WEEK.
And instead of telling NBC “NO” to a half hour IN THE TONIGHT'S SHOW SLOT — he left it TO CONAN (the only one aside from Letterman) WHO ACTUALLY CARED about Johnny's legacy … to keep the Tonight Show WHERE IT BELONGED.
NBC not only royally screwed its pooch — they slaughtered their own sacred cow. On the ALTAR of Leno. Both Leno and NBC deserve every bad thing that will (eventually) come out of all of this. Both tried to shove something down their (former viewers') throats — that viewers JUST DIDN'T WANT. To make more money for a network AND a sad old comic WHO REALLY DON'T NEED any more MONEY — at the expense of viewers.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:52:39 +0000

The Nielsen people meters require that the people watching identify via a personal identifier. There is some amount of time where if nothing happens, nothing is counted. if you fall asleep with your TV on, you might count for the next 30 minutes as watching whatever is on, but you won't count as having watched whatever is on for 8 hours.

The data in this post was certainly not opinion. Whether the preliminary data -- or even the final data is accurate is subject to interpretation, but as long as it is the basis for buying and selling advertising, it's the data that is important.

That's not opinion, it's a fact.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:46:11 +0000

Dear Rba13: It goes without saying, everything any blogger writes IS HIS/HER OWN OPINION. Whose opinion (other than their own) could it be? NOBODY is an expert — even the ratings services and the vaunted “opinion polls” are just THAT: OPINIONS.
The Nielsen service had to switch from DIARIES their viewing raters filled out — TO AUTOMATIC receiver recording devices … because everybody knows people don't ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH *(to surveyors or in diary books). Even when they're PAID to record what they really watched — the meters are more accurate. Even then, meters can only record WHAT TV CHANNEL WAS “on” – not how many (IF ANY) people were actually watching.
Nobody takes ratings *(or surveys) as gospel. It's ALL OPINION. Just as Rasmussen polls are deliberately slanted toward FAUX NEWS (far right wingers') OPINIONS than liberal thoughts.
NOBODY gauged accurately how wide the margin would be between Obama-McCain.

In conclusion: whatever ANYBODY writes (up to and including Moses and God's writing on the 10 Commandments): everything written is just somebody's OPINION. And facts can be quoted and configured HOWEVER anybody writing wants.

By: joshua82

joshua82 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:07:23 +0000

Leno never “supposedly retired.” He never said he was going to quit television just because he was forced out of “The Tonight Show” in favor of Conan.

By: joshua82

joshua82 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:04:40 +0000

iconklee: Of the 14.5 million households which do not have either cable or satellite service, how many of them live in areas with no access to a CBS affiliate? My guess would be very, very few. And I doubt that the number is significantly higher than the number of people living in areas with no access to an NBC affiliate, which would also be very, very few.

By: rba13

rba13 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:22:46 +0000

Like certain posters are posting about American TV talk show hosts from Europe. Possible, but not likely. And I do know that they do show American TV in Europe. Afterall, I lived in Europe for 10 years.

By: RiffRafferty

RiffRafferty — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:47:01 +0000

Is a certain poster in this thread really such a chowderhead as to not know how words are spelled in Europe, Australasia and Canada? And then does a spelling lame because of it? Sad. But typical of the “I'm with CooCoo” Brigade.

I thank Jay Leno for making “The Tonight Show” not just #1 but watchable again. Not being a socially-awkward reject myself, I have no desire to watch socially-awkward rejects on television.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 05:31:08 +0000

Holly, Joshua et al: Per Consumer Affairs: 27% of U.S. households have satellite service; 60% have cable.
Of 111,612,000 households (2009 US Census) … 14,510,000 DO NOT HAVE EITHER CABLE or SATELLITE … using antennas with varying rates of reception for NBC or CBS, etc.
Meaning: 15 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS (30-plus million people) are served by the vagaries of the airwaves.
Out of 300-MILLION Americans, LESS THAN FIVE MILLION watch Leno.
As for like-ability, that means: LESS THAN 1% OF AMERICA “likes” Leno enough to actually WATCH him.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 05:20:12 +0000

Dear Holly: your rationale lacks basis in fact. Nothing in life is “fair.” But you have to OWN your own behavior. Fact remains: a year ago *(before Jay supposedly RETIRED) … HIS Ratings were MUCH HIGHER than they are today.
And just what INDICATORS do you have that “Leno is more like-able?”
A YEAR AGO: Letterman and Nightline's numbers WERE FAR LOWER than they are today. BOTH Letterman AND Nightline are doing patently HIGHER numbers than a year ago (before the NBC leno-10PM debacle).
Since Leno's audience IS SHRINKING (in comparison to his own LAST YEAR'S NUMBERS) …. people obviously DO NOT FIND LENO AS “LIKE-ABLE” AS THEY USED TO (think) he was.
For the first time, people are seeing “the real Leno” … and his supposed “good guy” IMAGE is just that — an image (fantasy, illusion). The emperor (leno) has NO CLOTHES. He has been revealed for the WHINING, OPRAH-APPROVAL seeker, brown-noser THAT HE IS. WHO ELSE runs to Oprah for “absolution” in a vain attempt to restore “their image” ???
Time will tell who falls from great heights — and who remains in play. Leno will never achieve the popularity he once had. There is only downhill for the old, Big Chin faker.
Conan has an entire career AHEAD OF HIM — and countless die-hard FANS who love him == as evidenced by his sell-out of theater dates in record time. Think anybody's gonna LINE-UP to pay to see Leno?

By: rba13

rba13 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:25:45 +0000

Did you forget the words, “In my opinion”. Why do some people think that their opinion is fact? I respect your opinion, but I cannot respect the way you choose to state it.

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:50:54 +0000

No way "icon", Leno is clearly the most likable of all the late night hosts and it's even more clear he's the funniest.

So what if Leno hid in the closet and used creative techniques to get the Tonight Show. You act like he killed someone or did something illegal!!

TV and show business aren't fair and people do what it takes to get ahead as long as it's not illegal and Leno did just that and now he's the king of late night again!

By: rba13

rba13 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:01:28 +0000

“So not only do CoCo fans have a horrid sense of humour, they also have a quite a bit of egg on their face.”

So it's the “truth” that Conan fans have a “horrid” sense of “humour” (spelled wrong by the way, not an obvious typo) and they have “egg on their face”? And then you managed to call me “dense”. I'll say again you are one rude person.

By: curtisfiles

curtisfiles — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:38:53 +0000

Leno is like Fox News?
Jay Leno has been ratings winner since he has been back, despite Jennifer Aniston; Letterman's humour is stale old same old crap night after night. Leno is in Hollywood where the stars live Letterman has to fly People like Aniston out to NY. Dave is about the age Johnny Carson was when he retired. David, time to go home to Mom in Indiana.
Just got news that Conan O'Brien People are working on a deal with Fox Network TV.

By: joshua82

joshua82 — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:31:44 +0000

When Letterman debuted on CBS in 1993, there were two affiliates that at first did not want to replace their syndicated late-night programming with "Late Show." One was in Fargo, and the last holdout was the station in Sioux City, which prompted Dave to announce for several months that the Top Ten list came "from the home office in Sioux City, Iowa." But even the Sioux City affiliate started carrying Letterman by the summer of 1994.

So as far as I know, Letterman has had 100% clearance on the CBS network for many years. (Similarly, I'm sure Leno has 100% clearance on the NBC network.)

If there are any parts of the U.S. which lack either a CBS or NBC affiliate and can't watch either Dave or Jay, their population must be so small that their effect on the national ratings would have to be undetectible.

By: stella2010

stella2010 — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:09:28 +0000

Leno is like Fox news. He wins the ratings but he is stil sucks.

By: gabrielS

gabrielS — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:49:37 +0000

The anti-Leno vitriol will only end when (IF?) O'Brien returns and falls flat on his face using measurements that truly count: Ratings. Not stupid #ImWithCoco tags.

By: Gary_Middleton

Gary_Middleton — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 20:24:09 +0000

"LENO'S audience numbers are an affront to the real Tonight Show tradition of Johnny Carson."

Respectfully, disagree, iconk. Jay won for 14 straight years against way tougher competition than Johnny Carson every dreamed of. In fact, Johnny was beginning to struggle against Arsenio at the end.

As far as all the vitriol against Jay personally, it reads very childishly. Conan forced Jay out. Jay forced Conan out. Welcome to adulthood.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 19:05:40 +0000

dear holly: like him or not, Bill O'Reilly is hardly known for his lack of bias. And whoever said “leno was beating letterman because Leno is more likeable and funnier than Letterman” is hardly stating factual research.
Conan was “crushed” as it were because of his lousy lead-in (LENO at 10PM). Diehard 10PM drama fans were CRUSHED at losing some pretty beloved shows. NBC threw everybody under the bus because their bean counters have been “running” that network for far too long.
Goldberg (or whomever his guest was) is hardly an “arbiter of taste” or purveyor of factual wisdom. Point of fact: Leno's conduct in originally GETTING the Tonight Show (hiding in closets, lying and brown-nosing) — let alone how abominably he treated the great Johnny Carson and virtually trampling his legacy as he and Helen Kushner literally pushed Johnny out the door … NONE OF THAT CONDUCT WAS IN ANY WAY “like-able.” Nor was the way he eagerly JUMPED into a rehash of his abysmally boring Tonight Show at 10PM — instead of retiring GRACEFULLY (while he was still “on top”). Nor the way he trampled Conan's 11:35pm start time by agreeing to do an “abbreviated” abomination of his 10PM debacle at 11:3rpm.
NONE OF LENO'S CONDUCT has been like-able. It has instead been REPREHENSIBLE, selfish, self-aggrandizing, brown-nosing, desperate, obsequious … (or, should I tell you how i really feel) …
LENO'S audience numbers are an affront to the real Tonight Show tradition of Johnny Carson. The only late night comic NOT in awe of Carson's legacy is/was: the insufferable Jay Leno. Both Letterman and Conan revered Johnny Carson and his inimitable class, grace and wit.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:59:41 +0000

Iconkee? When was that, 1964? You're the original Don Draper!?

Our stats show both CBS and NBC at around 98% coverage of the USA (for all practical purposes, 100% for both). I'm not aware of any reason that more CBS affiliates would opt out of Late Show, but there are no differences in viewership potential. Your data is either bad or very outdated.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:49:18 +0000

Dear Mr Gorman: Until quite recently, I ran an ad agency that bought millions of dollars in TV commercial time over the last thirty years. And it was always understood that NBC had a larger viewership potential than CBS due to the way the TV markets were allocated and distributed. I imagine the ratings services could provide accurate stats. Every NBC sales rep for decades has boasted their Tonight Show audiences were naturally larger because of their reach.

By: Holly

Holly — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:48:03 +0000

Why would the Tonight Show be in more markets than the Late Show anyway?? Anywhere in America you have a TV you can get your NBC and CBS affiliates so how could there be a difference?

I know someone could be in an isolated area where they can't get their CBS or NBC affiliates but how would that favor one over the other??

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:37:09 +0000

@iconklee, “NBC TONIGHT SHOW has always had an “edge” over Letterman in that NBC's Tonight Show appears in more markets. “

My understanding is that any differences in the two shows distribution is tiny. Feel free to provide a link to source information to prove otherwise.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:33:40 +0000

NBC TONIGHT SHOW has always had an “edge” over Letterman in that NBC's Tonight Show appears in more markets. That aside, the “difference” between audience numbers (right now) is barely noticeable. I believe analysis shows that Leno's second-coming Tonight Show is doing FAR WORSE than before Conan took over. BOTH NIGHTLINE and LETTERMAN are doing SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER these days THAN BEFORE.
Ergo: it would seem some viewers have turned away from LENO

By: Holly

Holly — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:33:01 +0000

JBRK, LMAO!!

Conan makes weird faces and noises! Actually Conan is just plain WEIRD which is why he's gone and Leno is back in his THRONE where he belongs!!

By: JBRK

JBRK — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:23:38 +0000

I think a lot of people like myself aren't even tuning into Jay for laugh out loud comedy. We just want someone who can recap the day's news in an easy to follow, humorous way. Jay is a good storyteller who can deliver the facts and punchlines quickly whereas Conan drags the monologue by interrupting himself by making weird faces and noises.

By: Holly

Holly — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:20:00 +0000

That was hilarious on Leno last night when Leno and Bradshaw started play fighting and then they almost threw water on each other!

Craigperk is totally right!! Letterman is NEVER than funny! Not even close!

By: Holly

Holly — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:01:26 +0000

You may not like Bill O'Reilly and I don't really like him either but last night he had that media guy on he always has. Goldberg or whatever? He is also one of the correspondents on HBO RealSports or whatever that sports show is called.

Anyways he said Leno is beating Letterman quickly again because Leno is more likeable and FUNNIER than Letterman!!

O'Reilly led the segment by saying Leno immediately started beating Letterman again once he returned eventhough Letterman crushed Conan. I don't think Letterman quite crushed Conan but he did beat him until Conan's hype built up that he was leaving.

By: chaos amoeba

chaos amoeba — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 17:23:09 +0000

Bill, would this revised version have the Conan, Letterman, and Leno trends? Do we have data to do a year over year ratings as well (Conan, Letterman, Leno, Letterman last year, Leno last year)?

Just curious. Thanks for the graphics!

By: curtisfiles

curtisfiles — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 17:01:01 +0000

Wow even with Jennifer Aniston as a guest David could not beat Leno, did not see that coming.
I think it has to be the content and class in the person like Jay Leno that people like to watch good fresh comedy at night.
Conan and his peeps are talking about a show for the fall. I will post the link next time.

By: iconklee

iconklee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 16:24:17 +0000

BEFORE LENO SANK THE CONAN TONIGHT SHOW BY AGREEING TO DO A RIDICULOUS 10PM “prime” SHOW EVERY NIGHT (that sank like a stone) … *(in the mid to late 2000's) LENO'S TONIGHT SHOW BEAT LETTERMAN'S BY A FAIRLY WIDE MARGIN!
SINCE LENO STOLE THE TONIGHT SHOW FROM CONAN, HIS MARGINS AGAINST LETTERMAN HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE — at best. LENO no longer holds the dominance HE USED TO against Letterman (and Nightline). Because BOTH Letterman and Nightline have had SIGNIFICANT increases in audience since Leno's “return.”
ALL IN ALL, Leno's iron-fisted (*weak-kneed, lily livered) desperate GRASP on airtime for his BIG CHIN — at ANY COST — is costing him ratings-wise. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE turned off by Leno's PATHETIC need to see his BIG UGLY OLD CHIN (still) on TV.
Instead of retiring GRACEFULLY … he will hold on until the INEVITABLE bitter end. Until AFFILIATES or COMCAST force him OFF THE AIR … for the good of the viewing audience.

By: poirot

poirot — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:48:20 +0000

On paper, last night appeared to be a close match-up, yet Leno still won with ease. So it looks like things are starting to settle down and return to normal. Letterman will probably remain competitive in the 18-49 demo for a while longer- at least until younger viewers begin to lose interest in the late night battle.

By: ShmaCantLogin

ShmaCantLogin — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:03:38 +0000

Thanks. Much Appreciated.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:47:57 +0000

I will post it again, once I have another week of Leno v. Letterman ratings, but I have added the “final” Conan v. Letterman 18-49 chart to this post just because it was easy.

Note it doesn't include the last week of Conan repeats that ran prior to the Olympics

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:39:57 +0000

LOL @ rba13

I'm not being a jerk....but you're seriously dense.

Think carefully how my comment got through.

(and sorry if you think pointing out the "truth" is being rude - and I sure hope you berated all the Leno haters last month on this site, although I highly doubt it)

By: rba13

rba13 — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:31:21 +0000

“We are not currently accepting anonymous comments. You must comment with a registered and verified Disqus account or your Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo or OpenID account.”

It seems you cannot post without being condensending and rude. And I have no idea why your comment gets poste while posting under Anonymous.

By: ShmaCantLogin

ShmaCantLogin — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:23:48 +0000

Have you posted the Conan v Letterman ratings charts you made?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:22:04 +0000

These items will probably remain as separate posts as long as the interest level stays high enough. After that the information will go back to being part of our overnight posts on Tuesday-Friday as they were before all the hubbub.

By: alpha_chekhov

alpha_chekhov — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:17:08 +0000

At what point will this story become just another ratings item? Is it still necessary to give it its own splashy headline every day? All it does is draw out the extreme commenters on either 'side' of this foolishness to throw spitballs at each other. When and if Conan announces his own late night show (and at this point, does he still even want one?), this will become A BIG THING again. Until then, it's really just business as usual until a long-term trend can be determined.

By: craigperk

craigperk — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:15:25 +0000

I know I'm going to get it but Leno is more likable and watchable then Letterman; Terry Bradshaw was a blast reminds me of the old days of Johny were gust just come on and talk not to promote there crap.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:09:19 +0000

Three weeks later, and Leno is STILL pulling out regular demo wins – and that's DESPITE the fact the 10pm precious lead-in was practically the same as TJLS (1.8), and CBS had a stronger 10pm lead-in of 2.3.

So not only do CoCo fans have a horrid sense of humour, they also have a quite a bit of egg on their face.