Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 14, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.20|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.23|
|Til Death (Sunday)||0.26|
|Sons Of Tucson||0.57|
|Human Target (Wed only)||0.63|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.68|
|American Dad (P)||0.75|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||0.83|
|The Simpsons (P)||0.93|
|Family Guy (P)||0.97|
I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Sometimes it's hard to divine the future of a show from the ratings, sometimes, like with Sons Of Tucson, it's easy. Premiering with a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating after the #2 rated scripted show on Fox = cancelled. Next!
Lie To Me is off Fox's schedule until June 7, so no more ratings data for it before renewal or cancellation time (in May). I think it could go either way. A lot depends on whether Fox puts a three hour/week reality show (like SYTYCD) into its fall schedule. A 3 hour reality block on the schedule next fall would almost certainly spell doom for Lie To Me.
Human Target’s first 4 weeks in its “regular” Wednesday 8pm timeslot produced adults 18-49 ratings of 2.4, 2.5, 2.1, 2.4. I think that makes its renewal unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.
There was lots of hubbub about the presumed cancellation of 24 this week. Even down from its recent levels, it still has the ratings for renewal on Fox. However, and this is a limitation we aren't likely to overcome easily if at all, if the cost of the show is now so great as to overwhelm still reasonably good ratings, then the show could be a goner.
Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. 'Til Death is currently airing Sundays at 7pm and doing dreadfully, no surprise. Might Sony give the episodes away again to create more for syndication? Might Fox take them? Your guess is as good as mine. Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.