Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 14, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Til Death (S), (F) | 0.20 |
| Dollhouse (F), (P) | 0.23 |
| Brothers (F) | 0.24 |
| Til Death (Sunday) | 0.26 |
| Past Life | 0.35 |
| Sons Of Tucson | 0.57 |
| Fringe | 0.58 |
| Human Target (Wed only) | 0.63 |
| Lie To Me (P) | 0.68 |
| Bones (P) | 0.72 |
| Glee (P) | 0.74 |
| American Dad (P) | 0.75 |
| The Cleveland Show (P) | 0.83 |
| 24 | 0.85 |
| The Simpsons (P) | 0.93 |
| Family Guy (P) | 0.97 |
| House | 1.11 |
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I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox's list to the other networks' lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox's case, and the "magic" 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Sometimes it's hard to divine the future of a show from the ratings, sometimes, like with Sons Of Tucson, it's easy. Premiering with a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating after the #2 rated scripted show on Fox = cancelled. Next!
Lie To Me is off Fox's schedule until June 7, so no more ratings data for it before renewal or cancellation time (in May). I think it could go either way. A lot depends on whether Fox puts a three hour/week reality show (like SYTYCD) into its fall schedule. A 3 hour reality block on the schedule next fall would almost certainly spell doom for Lie To Me.
Human Target’s first 4 weeks in its “regular” Wednesday 8pm timeslot produced adults 18-49 ratings of 2.4, 2.5, 2.1, 2.4. I think that makes its renewal unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.
There was lots of hubbub about the presumed cancellation of 24 this week. Even down from its recent levels, it still has the ratings for renewal on Fox. However, and this is a limitation we aren't likely to overcome easily if at all, if the cost of the show is now so great as to overwhelm still reasonably good ratings, then the show could be a goner.
Dollhouse is officially canceled. Brothers seems to be canceled in practice, but Fox is silent. 'Til Death is currently airing Sundays at 7pm and doing dreadfully, no surprise. Might Sony give the episodes away again to create more for syndication? Might Fox take them? Your guess is as good as mine. Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving 
or deteriorating 
Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I kind of think the writing was on the wall for Sons before it even debuted just because Fox are already talking about making good on comedy development for next season…
Elsewhere I still (oddly) like Human Target for a short 12/13 episode order for fall if nothing else, especially if So You Think You Can Dance (and possibly Glee) aren't on the fall schedule.
Did you realize that you don't have Sons on the list?
I think Human Target is great mindless entertainment and i think it should be renewed, and if we have to sacrifice 24 then so be it.
Oddly enough, FOX seemed pretty enthusiastic about greenlighting Sons of Tucson during Pilot season last year. It was by some of the same crew who made Malcolm In The Middle (even had 3 brothers who match up with Reese, Malcolm and Dewey).
Then they saw the first episodes and realized they had a problem, I guess. But they did put the show behind Family Guy. So they wanted it to work (and didn't have another half hour show to pair with it after American Idol).
Same thing will probably happen next year too. FOX just can't put on any good comedy shows these days.
Sometimes it’s hard to divine the future of a show from the ratings, sometimes, like with Sons Of Tucson, it’s easy. Premiering with a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating after the #2 rated scripted show on Fox = cancelled. Next!
That's what I was responding to. Like I said I think the writing was on the wall when Fox started talking up their comedy development for next year and doing it right before Sons had even debuted.
Alex, I think you are right about Human Target, I think the biggest unknown for it is how expensive it is. FOX needs some filler for next season as a placeholder for X-Factor, I still think FOX will try everything they can to convince the SYTYCD people to agree to doing one more fall season because it's a decent performer and it's really cheap to make as apposed to using more expensive scripted shows.
Alex, FOX has a longstanding desire to develop a live action comedy BLOCK.
Til Death is a zombie. And Brothers is canceled in all but name. So the only other Live Action Comedy show they have right now is Sons of Tucson and Glee. PERIOD.
Which means even had Sons been a success, they'd still need a lot of pilots in development to build this comedy block. On average, a good development slate has 1 in 3 pilots being greenlit. Suppose they have a bad one? It makes sense for them to produce a lot of comedy pilots if they want to move heavily into non-animated comedy. 1 show doesn't cut it (even Glee is difficult to produce because of the Musical numbers, Sons of Tucson is a lot easier)
I'm not talking about them piloting a lot of new comedies for next season I'm talking about them actively talking up the comedy development slate over the existing comedy that was waiting to debut. When the network head is talking about how they're going to get live action comedy development and scheduling right next season opposed to talking up the live action comedy that's still to debut (and out of one of their biggest hits) signs aren't good for the show that's waiting in the wings.
FOX has 9 live action comedies ordered to pilot, with a few sketch comedies on top of that. So I think they are going to try to launch their own comedy block next year. My biggest question is what night will they try it on?
After last night's episode of 24, I do not know how anyone (if you watched it) could not see how this series does indeed still have life. It is hard to not want a renewal when the episodes are getting better and better. It is frustrating that the ratings will probably not reflect this for awhile, if ever.
Oops!
I'd go with Tuesday.
However I'm more interested in how they intend to schedule everything around Idol for midseason. And then X Factor fall 2011. If they have a two-hour comedy block its going to be almost impossible. And it'll be pretty damn difficult with just an hour of comedy.
Whenever I see the word Tucson I feel like pronouncing it Tukson. Prior to this show I never knew that Tucson was spelled that way. And no, I never really questioned what a Tukson was when I read stuff about the show. But, I never questioned what an Eastwick or a Breaking Bad was either.
Sons was a disappointment, I may have smiled once or twice. Bring back Reaper!!
If Son's of Tucson is the best of 1 of 3 pilots presented to the Fox suits, then I'd hate to see the ones that didn't make the cut.
It is surprising though, that the Fox network which is so successful in so many aspects of programming can be such a dud with regard to live sitcoms. The only one that was half way good that I can remember was “The War at Home”. They may have given up on that one too soon, but the problem they have is that the try to place live sitcoms within the bounderies of the animation domination shows.
Tuesdays and/or Wednesdays. Probably an hour of shows paired with Glee in the Fall. Assuming, of course, that So You Think You Can Dance doesn't return in the Fall, anyway…
I don't think the Bones/Fringe block is going anywhere, and House will be used as lead in for a drama on Mondays.
@thegodfathersjp: Glee is not a comedy. It's 45 minutes long and is for all intents and purposes a drama/musical (dramedy). Fox should cancel all its zombies and order either 2 or 4 new sitcoms for the fall. I don't watch a lot of Fox, but I think Tuesdays could be an option (before Idol strikes midseason).
As for dramas, one or two new ones will suffice (depending on whether they order 2 or 4 sitcoms). 24 should be canceled, and LTM and HT should share a timeslot (Thursdays at 9). It's been mentioned that Fox will probably give LTM a September-January 13-episode season, HT could replace it in late January, also with 13 episodes.
@mastermoron: I never understood the spelling of Tucson either. I usually misspell it.
I See SOT not returning next season, barring a miracle I suppose. With Fringe and House renewed or basically entitled to renewal, now just patiently waiting to here about Lie to Me, huge fan of the series,don't believe it will be the next House, but I do believe it could become a hit like Bones. HT is probably the biggest bubble show, it's still brand new and fresh and with 24 most likely not coming back, a lot of up in the air. As I've stated before most series renewal chances depend on 24 and SYTYCD, and I suppose Fox's new pilots as well.
SoT still has time to improve… Lets hope it will
Wow that's fast! Curious if Fox will cancel it faster than the CW cancelled…the model show… can't remember the name!