There are a lot of shows that have already been renewed. They range from The Good Wife and Community to Fringe and The Middle. Then there are shows that will certainly be renewed even if no announcement has been made yet -- shows like House, NCIS and Grey's Anatomy.
Then there are shows that seem certain to be canceled. Show's like ABC's The Deep End and The Forgotten and NBC's Trauma and Mercy. While all four of those shows are likely to be canceled, The Deep End is obviously in the worst shape of the four.
But sometimes there are shows where the ratings by themselves don't seem to merit renewal, but they get renewed anyway. Last year Dollhouse and Scrubs were predicted to likely be canceled. Yet both were renewed! They were not (to us) on the bubble at the time we made those predictions, but in retrospect they were obviously on the bubble.
Which begs the question of how to define the bubble. Going with the route of "any show that hasn't been officially renewed or canceled" yet seems kinda dumb. I mean then we would have to list NCIS and House, which are obviously coming back.
Currently, Mercy does not at all seem on the bubble based on any data we have access too -- it seems surely to be canceled. But so did Dollhouse last year.
For me a true bubble show is a show that really could go either way based on the information we have available. This year, those shows to me are:
NBC: Parenthood, Chuck. I'd also include Heroes, but not because of its ratings. And though Law & Order seems likely to be renewed, a case can be made for it to be on the bubble.
FOX: Human Target, Lie To Me, 24. Technically, 'Till Death is permanently on the bubble until it is canceled
CBS: Medium, Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally On Purpose, Numb3rs (tea leaves say canceled, numbers say bubble) and Miami Medical which hasn't aired yet
ABC: Castle, V. You could argue Scrubs deserves a permanent perch on the bubble until officially canceled. Some would argue FlashForward, but I don't see that as legitimately going either way based on the ratings trend.
CW: Life Unexpected
I think with the exception of the CW where any reasonable person would agree, Melrose Place is not on the bubble, there are situations on the other networks where reasonable people can disagree.
How do you define the bubble, and what shows would you place on it?
I've always agreed with your definition – shows that can go either way, based on the current info. If a show needs The Hand Of God to reach in and stop it from being cancelled (Dollhouse and Scrubs from last year), that doesn't mean it was on the bubble. It needed a miracle, and lucky for it, a miracle arrived.
my definition of a bubble show is…pretty much any show I like.
I pretty much agree with your definition of the bubble.
I wouldn't call Parenthood a bubble show just yet, even though its ratings do seem to be deteriorating. I think the fact that the show is produced by NBC studios will help save it, plus I think NBC would be too proud to admit that a show with so much buzz and so many stars failed to attract a major audience.
Numb3rs would be on the bubble on any other network but on CBS it's a goner, simply because they have to cancel *something*. Same with Cold Case.
While L&O should be canceled according to the numbers, it's likely to go on for another season or maybe even more because it's *supposed to*…
Scrubs also has a possibility of returning, or should I say, resurrecting. Everything for that nice round looking number.
Trauma, Mercy, Heroes, Melrose Place, The Forgotten, FF, Better Off Ted, Brothers, Til Death – they're not on the bubble, they need a miracle to keep chugging along.
“Then there are shows that seem certain to be canceled. Show’s like ABC’s The Deep End and The Forgotten and NBC’s Trauma and Mercy. While all three of those shows are likely to be canceled, The Deep End is obviously in the worst shape of the three.”
Which three of those four did you mean?
Stefan, with Parenthood for me that I don't have more data is what has it on the bubble for me. It's on the same sort of trajectory as Southland where it seems like it could dive below a 2.0 within a few episodes. If that happens, that it's NBC produced could help, or NBC could cut its losses.
Just an editing error. originally I did not have “The Forgotten” in that sentence and when I added it I didn't change “three” to “four”
Yeah I would say that being a NBC produced show would only help Parenthood if it were in it's 3rd or 4th season. But considering it's brand new there really wouldn't be an incentive to keep it around since it's nowhere near syndication, and I'd doubt that potential DVD sales would play a major role for a show that's potentially failing in it's first season.
I hate when my shows are on a bubble, the not knowing is almost killing me
I pretty much agree with your definition of the bubble. (2)
i hope that Old christine, Accidentally on purpose, Chuck and Human target come back next season.
The CBS sitcoms are the perfect example of a bubble show. They really could either go way. We really could not be certain on how CBS will handle the sitcoms' fate. With 3 sitcoms on the bubble, CBS could either pick one or two or cancel all 3 but I guess it is safe to say that it is a long shot that CBS will renew all three at this point.
I'm starting to believe that what the bubble is alters dramatically based on which network you are on. I'm a big believer in the Renew or Cancel Index, but in just the last two years we have seen radical departures from it based on a myriad of factors that vary from network to network. And it's more than just, “Oh, NBC's overall ratings suck, so they are going to be more patient.” Everything from cost factors that we do not see to the incestuous nature of the modern day conglomerate now make each decision exponentially more complicated.
In the main, however, I still think the Renew or Cancel Index is the best objective way to look at what is or is not on the bubble. Trying to dig deeper than that would require inside sources and information that we just have no way to access.
It does appear, however, that the smarter nets are having more patience with potential bubble shows (a la CBS and The Good Wife, and with ABC and Castle) than the dopier broadcasters (a la NBC with 10PM). Maybe being on top makes it easier to give these bubble shows more leeway, but I think it's more a change back to the old school philosophy of letting marginal show have the opportunity to build on what they already have achieved, rather than making the large investment on a new show that probability says will do no better than the show it is replacing.
Trauma, Mercy, Melrose Place, The Forgotten, FF, Better Off Ted, Brothers, Til Death I think will be cut for sure.
I think Heroes might stick around one more season just so they have enough for syndication.
I think Heroes will be cancelled, the numbers speak for themselves. Parenthood will be back, NBC can't cancel that without losing pride.
I really hope Chuck comes back, it's my personal favorite show on television right now!! It will definitely grow tomorrow and I hope it will settle at about a 2.3 (is that enough for renewal?)
As for other networks, Castle will be back, V is too soon to call. Lie to Me probably won't be renewed in May because the back 9 will not have aired, it might be back midseason. I think unless there's a dramatic upswing in ratings 24 is dead (production costs, not ratings). I have no idea what CBS will do yet with any of those shows but if i had to guess, 1 comedy is save, Medium is safe, and numb3rs is dead.
While I have high hopes for parenthood, I must agree with your analysis of all the bubble shows. This season has been good to me in terms of renewals so i won't complain too much about parenthood's predicament.
I've wondered about the term “bubble” as it refers to programming since it seems to be in the news prefaced by “housing,” “stock market,” etc. I thought a program on the bubble must be one with inflated perceived value not supported by actual substance. Hmmm… gotta go back and rethink how I think about some of these shows. I do think Numb3rs, Lie to me, L&O and 24 should be renewed based on the quality of the scripts, acting, etc., but I think that Schmoker hit the nail on the head with the comments on how factors vary from one network to another.
Would be curious to know how others define a “bubble” show.
Castle is ABC Studios. Scrubs I believe is Touchstone which is really ABC. Shows developed in house are cheaper and have bigger profit margins for the Network. In the case of Dollhouse, you have a big name EP with a track record. It's a trophy show, and also a show you don't want to cancel right away or you piss off big name EP and hurt future projects. That's why I wouldn't be shocked if Parenthood came back – NBC wants to keep relationship with Howard/Grazer strong. Then again, it's an expensive show. NBC will wait until they see their pilots come in. So basically, it's hard to say what's on the bubble because it's not just about ratings — it can be a lot of diff. things.
If a show isn't officially by the network renewed prior to the of pilot screenings, the show is a bubble show. If it's danger of being replaced by a new show, it's a bubble show.
That's the best definition I'v heard.
Those are two different definitions and the first one makes no sense. Are House, Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy bubble shows? They've yet to be renewed officially.
Those are two different definitions and the first one makes no sense. Are House, Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy bubble shows? They've yet to be renewed officially.