Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 21, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.57 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.66 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Law & Order (Monday), (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.81 |
| Community | 0.86 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.91 |
| Chuck | 0.94 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 0.99 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.11 |
| Parenthood (P) | 1.14 |
| The Office (P) | 1.53 |
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Last week it was the shift to Daylight Savings Time, this week it was the premiere of Dancing with the Stars, but after two weeks of 1.9 ratings, excuses aside, it's time for Chuck fans to hit the panic button.
Chuck's below the ratings level that would indicate likely renewal now. Some think NBC is so devastated that Chuck has to come back. NBC is certainly devastated, but that doesn't guarantee anything for Chuck.
At this point, if Parenthood goes no lower than a 2.3 rating (which it had last week), I think it will survive another season. If it goes much lower, even Ron Howard may not be able to save it.
Some would put Heroes on NBC's bubble too. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
For all the people jumping ship due to the Chuck/Sarah rockiness, it has been pretty well covered by people who've read the scripts, as well as by the writers themselves, that everything works out for those two.
Which is why I haven't left yet
I couldn't care less who Sarah is dating, but what makes me like the show less is that it seems to have lost the light-hearted feel that made the first season enjoyable.
Chuck is my favorite show (shocker, right?) and I hope the ratings go up. This has been one heck of a ride but I”m not giving up yet. I don't want it to end. But these numbers have got to go up.
And Chuck is now very nearly at the same index score as Heroes and this weeks 1.9 will push it even closer in next weeks index. Is it wrong of me to now wish that it drops below Heroes on the index just to see the reaction of Chuck fans?
Elsewhere I still think Parenthood is likely for renewal despite last weeks worrying drop. We'll see how things go this week but another drop may force me to change my mind. As things stand though everything outside Parenthood now looks pretty cut and dry for NBC at least on the scripted front. The Marriage Ref and Parenthood are now really the only bubble shows they have left. Unless Chuck actually rebounds next week but even then its dropped so low at this point it may be too little too late.
Wow. I've heard people talking about the barren NBC lineup, but I didn't realize how bad it was until now. Yikes.
I've thought about maybe checking out Parenthood due to the cast, but I'd like to see it stabilize before I invest anything in it. My heart suffered enough trauma already watching Castle slowly rise up from the pack on ABC.
I certainly enjoy The Office, so it does my heart good to see it leading the pack. If not for that and Law and Order…wow, the cupboard is very bare, isn't it?
I attribute that mostly to Shaw. Everything else is mostly the same, if you subtract him from the equation.
I attribute it to the writers trying to avoid a case-of-the-week format and not failing to keep the light feel when creating the drama/crisis for the season long arc.
You did not go dark enough. It is going to be canceled.
Ahhh
Save Chuck!
Chuck is played out, i think people are just bored of a wussy manboy spy, Chuck pulling Scooby-doo antics on missions is pathetic, i hope NBC picks up 24, and J Bauer guest stars and opens a can of whip-ass on Chuck
Then they shouldn't bother making a fourth season.
When a “will they-won't they” situation between main characters is resolved there really isn't any reason to keep tuning in.
When that sort of situation happens between supporting characters they should resolve it somewhere in the middle of the series, hopefully positively, i.e. “they will and they are” and that could even help the series.
Everybody knows that
Since Chuck is produced by WB and they co-own The CW, you think they would move it there if NBC decides to cancel it? Chuck's numbers on NBC make it a bubble show, but those same numbers on CW would make it a hit. I think WB would have to look at that possibility since Chuck does have a very loyal fanbase.
Kill it with fire, NBC…. kill it with fire.
Not going to happen.
You're not the first person to suggest that. Verdict: highly unlikely.
Given the teenage drama angle they've play this year, with tongue firmly planted in cheek, HoosierDaddy may be right. Holly nailed it. The show used to be fun. It's just not that fun anymore. Again, maybe a reason it belongs on CW (tongue bursting through cheek).
” Is it wrong of me to now wish that it drops below Heroes on the index just to see the reaction of Chuck fans?”
No! It is NOT wrong. It would be perfect and very funny! Chuck's fans are wetting their pants!
Ha ha ha!! Bye, bye Chuck!
The unfortunate thing is the ratings dropped to this level AFTER they wrapped taping of the season. So they wrote and taped the finalie thinking it would more than likely get a season 4..and with good reason because before the Winter Olympics it looked like Chuck would get another season. It's a shame it looks like the series will end on a cliffhanger. Maybe NBC would do Chuck fans a final favor and let Chuck have a 2 hour “movie/series end” sometime next season. But I wouldn't count on it. It was fun while it lasted. Maybe WB might try to move the show to another network or cable but I wouldn't hold my breath on it.
3 episodes were the best episodes of Chuck ever! It didn't deserve this ratings! Heroes and Chuck both had 19 episodes this season. Heroes season finale 2.0, and if it keeps like this Chuck could go more down…Law & Order had last night 1.8 and Chuck 1.9 that proves that Chuck is in not good position now…
the show needs more Nerd Herd fun and action and less romantic crap, It's Chuck not Grey's Anatomy.