Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through March 28, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Numb3rs (F), (P) | 0.54 |
| Three Rivers (P) | .55* |
| Medium (F), (P) | 0.59 |
| New Adventures of Old Christine (S) | 0.62 |
| Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) | 0.64 |
| Gary Unmarried | 0.65 |
| Cold Case (P) | 0.68 |
| The Good Wife (P) | 0.83 |
| Accidentally On Purpose (P) | 0.89 |
| CSI:NY (P) | 0.97 |
| How I Met Your Mother (S) | 1.03 |
| Rules of Engagement | 1.08 |
| NCIS: Los Angeles (P) | 1.08 |
| Criminal Minds (P) | 1.08 |
| The Mentalist | 1.10 |
| CSI (P) | 1.10 |
| CSI: Miami (P) | 1.11 |
| NCIS (P) | 1.26 |
| Two and a Half Men | 1.49 |
| Big Bang Theory | 1.57 |
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CBS' record of few total failures means that shows with mediocre ratings are in danger because the network will want to premiere several hours of new shows next fall. The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally On Purpose, and Medium could all go either way depending on how CBS feels about its pilots, its interest in continuing to be battered on Wednesday for a new comedy block, and perhaps the sunspot forecast (just kidding!).
While the numbers for Numb3rs have placed it in danger of cancellation from the beginning of the season, all the press surrounding its season finale leads me to believe that CBS will be canceling the show.
The next interesting data points will come when:
- Accidentally On Purpose moves to Wednesday (March 31). That will give a relative read on both its and Gary Unmarried's prospects. If it drops well below Gary's average (2.2 rating for new episodes), it's a goner. If it does lots better, goodbye Gary. Christine's prospects are likely to be influenced as well.
- Miami Medical starts at 10pm on Fridays (April 2). Its results *might* provide some additional clarity on the prospects for Medium.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS's case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
C'mon Accidentally On Purpose! You can do it!
Warning – This comment is a bit of a novel and deals only with sitcoms so if that doesn't interest you, feel free to move on to the next one.
I can't even make a prediction for what Accidentally on Purpose will do on Wednesday nights. I absolutely hated the show when it first debuted as I didn't find it very funny at all and it was also keeping Rules of Engagement (a show I enjoy) off the schedule. I really hated it even though in general I'm a fan of Jenna Elfman.
Still, knowing it can take awhile for a show to find itself I stuck with it (being on between HIMYM and Men/TBBT didn't hurt as I didn't want to change the channel) eventually it grew on me.
I don't know if it has grown on me to the point where I'll be checking it out now that it is on Wednesday. I guess I'll find out starting tomorrow. I'm also not sure that the premise of AOP lends itself to a long running sitcom. Seems like it could tell the story it needs to tell in a season or two.
I also discovered Gary Unmarried this season and really enjoyed it. The season (series?) ended on a cliffhanger and I'm hoping that gets resolved. Old Christine does nothing for me and so I have no strong feelings either way on whether it should stay or go.
It really isn't mentioned like the others listed but I still consider RoE to be a bubble show and will until it is picked up for season 5. The treatment of the show has been…interesting. I think it deserves a full season 5 but recent history suggests that 13 episodes might be the best I can hope for.
If CBS decides to debut 2 new comedies next year I figure at least one of Gary/Cristine/RoE/AOP will get an order for 13 episodes as insurance against a bomb. If they decide to debut two new sitcoms next season I see one on Monday and one on Wednesday. The Wednesday thing hasn't worked well for them thus far but debuting two shows in that hour next season just doesn't seem ideal to me.
I don't see the point of breaking up the Two and a Half Men/Big Bang Theory hour (but it certainly is possible) so either CBS moves a Monday show to Wednesday or they keep one of either Gary or Christine to anchor the night.
I think if I had it my way, Monday would lead off with RoE, followed by a new comedy (Sh*t my dad says?) and then the Chuck Lorre hour. Wednesday would be How I Met Your Mother and a second new comedy. My own preference would be for Gary Unmarried to be on the bench for midseason, I'd be interested to see that on Monday night just to see what would happen.
We'll know more next week…
I agree about “Gary Unmarried,” I hope to see it at least on the bench for midseason. I think “Sh*it My Dad Says” will start strong and fizzle quick, assuming it is picked up at all. “Rules of Engagement” deserves a full season, not sure it will get it. “Gary” has been a fun show to watch, stuck on a weaker night. I'd love to see how a new episode would fair paired with “Two and a Half Men,” just to see how the show would do with the benefit of a strong, compatible lead-in.
The CBS situation is basically stagnant until we get some ratings for Miami Medical.
Bill, we may not good a good idea of how Accidentally on Purpose will do until April 7th. The episode that is airing on 3/31 is a repeat.
My prediction for next year's schedule:
Monday
8 – TBBT
8:30 – HIMYM
9 – RoE
9:30 – 2.5 Men
10 – CSI: Miami
Tuesday
8 – NCIS
9 – NCIS: LA
10 – Hawaii 5-0
Wednesday
8 – Old Christine (full season running through March, then replaced by a new sitcom)
8:30 – New sitcom
9 – Criminal Minds
10 – Minds 2.0
Thursday
8 – Survivor
9 – The Mentalist
10 – CSI
Friday
8 – Ghost Whisperer
9 – Medium
10 – The Good Wife
Saturday (whatever they have now, unscripted)
Sunday
7 – 60 Minutes
8 – The Amazing Race
9 – Undercover Boss
10 – CSI: NY
That makes two new dramas and two new sitcoms, a satisfactory ending to Old Christine and CBS moving their weak link (CSI: NY) to a timeslot that isn't all that good for them – Sundays at 10PM.
Your nuts if you think CBS will move TBBT to 8PM, it's doing fantastic where it is. Not to mention, I think CBS will launch Criminal Minds 2.0 on a different night the same way they launched the CSI spinoffs. Two serial killer shows on 1 night is a bit much. I wouldn't be shocked if NCIS LA gets moved to another night and they launch Criminal Minds 2.0 out of NCIS.
Also I think if AoP fails on Wednesday CBS may decide to axe the Wednesday comedy block and use the timeslot for a procedural. They tried it and stuck with it for a while, but it's just not working for them.
My prediction about TBBT was a little premature but we'll see how it does next week at 8PM. They only got that slot this year to boost the ratings, but TBBT is not a 9:30 PM show nor is it compatible with 2.5 Men. RoE and 2.5 men are much more compatible.
Since CBS launched NCIS LA out of NCIS, I can see them doing the same thing with Minds.
And if the Wednesday comedy block really fails CBS should jump at the opportunity to launch a serialized drama (that's not on a Friday) for once. All procedurals start looking the same after a while.
They only got that slot this year to boost the ratings, but TBBT is not a 9:30 PM show nor is it compatible with 2.5 Men. RoE and 2.5 men are much more compatible.
But what I am saying is that the show is doing fantastically where it is. The 9PM hour is the most watched hour in primetime, why would they move one of their highest rated shows to an hour that gets less viewers? Compatible or not, it does extremely well out of 2.5 Men. And that 8PM episode next week is a repeat, probably meant to try and boost ROE with TBBT as opposed to HIMYM since TBBT gets better ratings.
CBS has the luxury of being able to axe shows that other networks would kill for, what bubble shows go are anyone's guess. Sad that Numb3rs has ended, and being that I only watch Numb3rs and Big Bang, my viewing fate has already been decided. ROE seems to have decent ratings maybe it's time CBS gives the series a full season and see how it works out.
What I would love to see would be RoE come with a full season. I have loved it since season 1. If AoP does well on Weds than it could anchor the Wed comedy block and half Christine and Gary both get half seasons.
I don't think that will happen because they will try to launch at least one new comedy show which will probably take that 8:30 half hour on Mondays.
And that 8PM episode next week is a repeat
Oh! I didn't know that. OK then, Monday stays how it is. (I'd amend my original post but I won't since it would render our conversation unnecessary.)
I think Medium is fine. The syndication deal subsidizes their Friday ratings, a luxury a replacement wouldn't have.
The real x-factor is whether the Wednesday comedy block continues. IIRC, CBS said they are only looking for one new comedy this year, which means Mondays are unchanged aside from the AoP replacement. GU is canceled; CBS doesn't cut orders unless the show is dead. Thus I think AoP's ratings will determine whether CBS will bother with the block next year – the same piddling low 2s as the existing comedies get, and the block is gone.
Not to mention CBS is running out of room. Hawaii 5-0 & Criminal Minds 2 are thought to be locks, which already means Good Wife is banished to Sundays/Fridays, even if the comedy block is gone. If the block stays, then GW goes to Friday, with one of the two new shows or CSI-NY banished to Sundays. Simply put, OC's ratings do not warrant sending one of these other shows to die on Sunday/Friday.
I would love to see Medium run for another season. As with regards to several CBS sitcoms, I am not really a fan of Gary Unmarried, though I have seen a few episodes that are quite funny, it is not something that I will follow on a weekly basis.
I am a huge fan of medium and would be thrilled if is renewed for another season.
Yeah…. I'd call Minds a lock, seeing as the pilot airs in 8 days. Unless someone can show me a show that had a backdoor pilot in the spring and failed to make the fall sked.
The Good Wife shouldn't be renewed. The 18-49 viewership is really really low.
Gossip Girl had a backdoor spinoff pilot last year, that wasn't picked up.
It was set in the 80's and that's generally the reason it wasn't picked up.
Minds 2.0 is a lock, unless it completely bombs.
They had a similar pilot last year, that wasn't picked up.
But this time, it's getting the spinoff treatment.
CBS has never really made huge drastic changes, especially when TV shows work in a timeslot. IMO
- Cold Case is gone, Minds 2 will take that slot.
- Wednesday block is gone, Hawaii Five-0 will take that spot
- Miami Medical to take numb3rs' spot.
The Monday comedy block will probably remain the same, they might keep either Gary or Christine in case Rules of Engagement flops next season, but RoE and 'Mother' are nearly identitical, 5 people, 3 males 2 females, who hang out at a public dining venue and talk endlessly about getting laid and making websites. Big Bang Theory will probably stay at 9:30 until Two and a Half Men finishes its run, I think that's what CBS does, they groom a TV show for a certain slot, they groomed “Men” for Raymond's slot, and look how that worked out for them.
Uh The Good Wife's ratings came in at #6 in total viewers with its last new episode. kinda dumb to say it shouldnt be renewed.