Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 28, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Law & Order (F), (P) | 0.57 |
| Mercy (P) | 0.65 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.69 |
| Law & Order (Monday), (P) | 0.71 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.81 |
| Community | 0.86 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.91 |
| Chuck | 0.92 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 1.01 |
| Parenthood (P) | 1.07 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.11 |
| The Office (P) | 1.52 |
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Chuck managed a preliminary 2.1 adults 18-49 rating last night, against repeat competition on both CBS and Fox. That's up from last week's 1.9 rating, but have the show's ratings taken a mortal hit? Is it now just a matter of time before Chuck slips beneath the TV waves?
Last week's uptick to a 2.7 adults 18-49 rating for Parenthood is a level that would certainly get the show renewed. Question is, can it hold on to something near that level until NBC makes up its mind for next fall? It could get the benefit of a Southland "squeeze", where renewal is announced prior to subsequent ratings declines.
Note that Chuck and Parenthood's ratings averages contain only new episodes, most of NBC's fall shows have many repeat episodes factored into their ratings averages.
Some would put Heroes on NBC's bubble. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings hulks Trauma and Mercy.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I could have sworn NBC made an announcement awhile ago that Trauma was canceled for good.
please dont cancel chuck by far my favorite show on tv. What does NBC have to lose by renewing it
When NBC failed to order new episodes of Trauma in the fall, we assumed it was canceled, but there was no announcement. But after the Leno debacle, NBC ordered more episodes of Trauma, and so calling it officially canceled based on no extra episodes ordered isn't valid.
I've been going back and forth on what I think Chuck's future is but I think I just got a moment of clarity with the Castle renewal. In the end how a show's doing isn't as important as what direction (ratings and creatively) it seems to be heading in. I've actually enjoyed this season of Chuck but there's no question it's a less enjoyable and (minor bump this week not withstanding) the ratings are clearly trending down. Plus shows trending down almost always lose a chunk of audience at season breaks.
It all depends on what NBC has to work with on it's creative slate but if there's anything worthwhile I can't see Chuck surviving. NBC just can't afford to take a chance on Chuck coming back at a 1.2 or lower.
I'm think they uncanceled it to make up for the Leno disaster.
I don't think Chuck is safe for renewal but I think it has a fighting chance, there are still 6 weeks of episodes (2 hr. finale) and next week will show if yesterday's 2.1 was a unusual high or the start of a new upwards trend.
Parenthood should be safe unless there's a major drop against full competition (V and Good Wife). The episode 2 weeks (that's when Good Wife returns right?) will tell weather the show can hold viewers.
I'm going to call Heroes dead, it's ratings don't justify a fifth season (even with high DVD sales and international markets, there's no syndication possibility and it's ratings aren't good)
chuck deserves better move it to another night or let a nother newtwork or cable station pick it up PLEASE
I give Chuck 40% chance of renewal
I'm gonna miss Mercy:(
money
This is what I'm talking about: Earlier this month, it was reported that Trauma was canceled. That was March 16th.
http://tvspoilers-odi.blogspot.com/2010/03/nbc-…
“What does NBC have to lose by renewing it”
Money.
Doh' Jared you beat me to it!
y so many chuck haters
I hadn't seen that. the post was pretty vague though, I mean everyone expects it to be canceled except perhaps for a few delusional fans. Has there been anything more formal/official since then?
They could get renewed with a 2.3 to 2.4. The writers and producers really over did this angsty WT/WT arc which was bound to bomb in the primetime hour. Perhaps they can pull it up. I think the last 6 will be really amazing if they can get the story straight and give the protagonist an actual antagonist that isn't also a competition for Sarah. It doesn't always have to be about their dysfunctional relationship, gezzz. Too bad though. Really great show during the closing episodes last year and they totally screwed the pooch on it this season. Here we are past the halfway point and going into episode 13 and I still don't know who their fighting. Some ringy thingy ma jig?
Will Parenthood's chances of renew start to become a problem when Glee comes back in two weeks and it has to compete against the last half hour of that show/
I wouldn't be too quick in proclaiming Parenthood as safe, or any better than Chuck. It had a more severe die-off over its first few episodes than Chuck did.
Parenthood was up against no competition last week, so its 2.7 may have been a fluke. Tonight's rating will be a big indicator of whether its drop off from the premiere episode til 2 weeks ago and that episode's horrendous 30-minute cliffdive were an omen, or if last week's uptick was legit.
This is the first night Parenthood will be up against two live scripted opposition, now that V is back.
Parenthood again has the good fortune of facing a CBS repeat tonight, though V's return will surely do better than the clip show did last week so somewhere in the low 2's is likely.
y so many chuck haters
I don't have a pony in this race, but THIS one I have to call out.
List one post above yours, ufc, that is a “Chuck hater” comment. There is nothing but support for Chuck in every post above yours (and at the time of this writing, every post below yours as well). Nobody is trashing the show here. Nobody is “hating”. I'm sorry your show is struggling, I really am. But the numbers are what they are, and stating them impartially and bluntly (as Bill did) is what the good folks here at TVbytheNumbers do for every show. It's not “hating”. So let's be fair about this, huh? I don't see any wolves, so stop howling about them being around.