From the mailbag:
Miami Medical had the best CBS ratings of the night. But was it a good premiere? Does this spell bad news for Numb3rs?
Dean L, Kansas City
I received a couple of other e-mails along similar lines. Let me deal with the Numb3rs piece first.
What's it mean for Numb3rs?
My guess: nothing.
I never thought Miami Medical's ratings were going to mean much of anything for Numb3rs. Miami Medical would've had to have premiered to excellent numbers or horrible numbers for CBS to even think about it in the context of Numb3rs.
The biggest issue for Numb3rs is probably that it is an older series and that older series are more expensive to produce. On a Friday, when 18-49 eyeballs are increasingly harder to come by anyway, with Numb3rs' 18-49 ratings diminishing, more expensive just isn't isn't a good ingredient to add to the recipe.
Was it a good premiere for Miami Medical?
That's a harder call and depends on the context. In the context of a new series premiere, the 7.54 million viewers and 1.6 adults 18-49 don't strike me as particularly good. Remember that at least in recent history the premiere numbers are usually a show's best numbers.
But in the context of last night, it's a bit different. Viewing was down in general and the number of adults 18-49 watching TV were down from the previous week, too. That makes any analysis a little trickier. With its lead-ins Ghost Whisperer and Medium down to the levels of season (series?) lows for original episodes, for Miami Medical to score a 1.6 and 7.5 million viewers was at least a victory versus anything else on Friday night (though it tied w/Dateline in the 10pm hour with adults 18-49).
Bottom line: I'd predict Ghost Whisperer and Medium to bounce back next week and for Miami Medical to fall. Even if that happens, I don't think it will make a difference either way for Numb3rs.
So you get the sane mail, too! Though, considering Bill runs the Renew/Cancel Index, I would think this question would go to him.
Most of the mail I receive is sane, but the insane ones are sometimes more interesting for publication.
Agree, Numbers is done, i have no doubt but miami medical next fall season.. this i`m not sure, all dependes what happens next week.
Can't judge anything from a holiday weekend pilot. Can't judge anything from a pilot in general, unless you're NBC's Parenthood considering the promotion.
Can't judge anything from a pilot in general
That's not true. You can judge that typically there is no where for the ratings to go but down. Agree that with the holiday weekend nothing much can be made from last night's numbers in general.
I never though Numb3rs had a chance, once they reduced there number of episodes. Miami did fairly “well” considering it was an awful night all around.
I do think next week will shed some more light on the matter. In my opinion GW and Medium will go up and MM will go down.
Right. So I guess what I meant to say was next week's retention numbers will be more important for CBS.
Retentionista! My guess is next week's retention numbers will be as meaningless to CBS as they are to us, unless Medium pops to like a 2.3 (which I don't see happening). If Medium is a 1.5 and MM is 1.4, it's not like CBS is going to be thrilled just because there was 93% retention.
Oops let me rephrase that, I meant retention of last night's MM audience versus next week's.
Miami Med. does not hold a candle to Numbers, the acting was poor, who wants to listen to people talking through surgical masks for an hour, what kind of doctor stands by a terminal patient from burns and says why perform this procedure, it will only give him another half hour, he wasn't dead yet, would not a real doctor realize he can hear what they are saying?
How can a vehicle hit another vehicle and cause someone to end up lying behind their vehicle when the man in the back vehicle went forward through the windshield. Give me back Numbers, I will not watch this anymore!
Numb3rs is essentially finished, so no point in looking at the ratings and comparing to see if there is a chance of renewal, the sign came when the episode order was cut, I think MM ratings will decide on and own fate and the rest of the Friday night line up. However if MM does return for another season, it should stay at the 10 P.M hour, no matter which day.
Miami Medical was actually not that bad, i will be tunning in next week, to watch the next episode.
But i have to agree, the fact that Miami Medical got good numbers on Friday was pure luck.
Ghost Whisperer and Medium will definitely go up next week, and unfortunately 'Miami Medical' will got down – my guess no more than 4 million viewers.
It means nothing. Both are getting canceled. I can't imagine a different scenario at all.
Why did I think the season of Numbers was already cut short and announced as being over? I'm sure that came out months ago? If that's not correct, I still don't think MM will have any effect on Numbers.
“who wants to listen to people talking through surgical masks for an hour”
ER, which ran for 15 seasons, says hello!
I've been following the site for awhile now after having move from pifeedback because of getting tired of the commentary focusing on total viewers and “winning” a time slot even if the show still had pathetic ratings. But here I'm wondering why there is so much criticism of the importance of a lead in, even having the term “retentionista” for it? Obviously it depends on the situation, but does that term suggest that lead ins have no importance? Do you all think a show airing after American Idol has the same ratings expectations as something that airs after Til Death (or any other low rated show)?
Gob09, I cannot speak for anyone by myself, but I cry Retentionista! when someone points to the % audience retention as a mark of a show's success or failure, when it's *infinitely* less important than simply the adults 18-49 rating received by the show.
Here's a real life example from last season: (didn't go back to get the numbers exact, but they're close)
9pm Lie to Me following American Idol, gets a 3.6 adults 18-49 rating, after Idol's ~8 rating.
Retentionista's scream failure! less than 50% retention!
Anyone with a brain sees that 3.6 rating and knows it was better than any non-Sunday non-House drama on Fox.
Lie to Me switches to 8pm, before Idol, gets a 3.4 rating. Retentionistas are either silent or now claim the show a success. Huh? A show goes from a 3.6 (failure) to a 3.4 (success)?
Therein lies the crux of the Retentionista dilemma.
You are correct. The season order for Numb3rs was reduced, and it is done for the year (and likely for good).
It was within the realm of possibility that a *really* bad showing for Miami Medical, might cause CBS to rethink cancelling Numb3rs, but I agree with Robert now that the chance for that is practically nil.
last two weeks of Numb3rs were 1.7 & 1.8
Miami Medical premiered at just a 1.6, and that will only go down
It might not help Numb3rs but it sure did not hurt them
retentionista does not mean much, look at Psych it loses viewers from a rerun of NCIS which has aired 1000 times but it is still considered a hit for USA