Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 4, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.20|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.23|
|Til Death (Sunday)||0.26|
|Sons Of Tucson||0.54|
|Human Target (Wed only)||0.62|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.68|
|American Dad (P)||0.75|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||0.82|
|The Simpsons (P)||0.89|
|Family Guy (P)||0.97|
I give up trying to figure out how to adjust the Fox overall season average ratings for sports and American Idol. Folks will just have to refrain from comparing Fox’s list to the other networks’ lists. The order of the shows is far more important than the Index values in Fox’s case, and the “magic” 0.90 Index for renewal will not be appropriate.
Human Target popped up to a 2.3 adults 18-49 rating last week, an improvement on its recent airings. The Executive Producer gave the obligatory interview stating that he’s optimistic for renewal. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the predictive capability of such interviews. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were negatively correllated with renewal! I’m not calling the show certain to be canceled, but it’s still a longshot for renewal.
Note that Human Target’s Wednesday average contains only new episodes, so it’s not comparable to shows with many repeats.
Lie To Me is off Fox’s schedule until June 7, so no more ratings data for it before renewal or cancellation time (potentially as late as May 17). I think it could go either way. A lot depends on whether Fox puts a three hour/week reality show (like SYTYCD or something else) into its fall schedule. A 3 hour reality block on the schedule next fall would almost certainly spell doom for Lie To Me.
Dollhouse, Brothers and ‘Til Death are officially canceled, and 24 is officially in its last season. ‘Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.