Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 11, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Mercy (P) | 0.67 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Law & Order (Monday), (P) | 0.73 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.83 |
| Community | 0.88 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.93 |
| Chuck | 0.93 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 1.04 |
| Parenthood (P) | 1.08 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.14 |
| The Office (P) | 1.52 |
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Parenthood has a new episode average of a 2.63 rating for adults 18-49. It may not look like much, but on NBC it's the biggest scripted fish they've caught all season. NBC has only 3 scripted shows with better new episode averages (Office, 30 Rock and Law & Order: SVU). By comparison, CBS has thirteen scripted shows with a better ratings average.
On CBS, Parenthood would get thrown back in the lake. On NBC, it looks like a trophy.
Chuck's chances were certainly not helped by its 1.9, 1.9, 2.1 and 2.1 adults 18-49 ratings it drew in its last four new episodes (before taking a 2 week repeat break). Last season its ratings moved up a good 20% in its final few episodes. That might have saved the show last season. That might happen again this season. And it might not.
Note that Chuck and Parenthood's ratings averages contain only new episodes, most of NBC's fall shows have many repeat episodes factored into their ratings averages.
Some would put Heroes on NBC's bubble. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings hulks Trauma and Mercy.
I continue to believe that Law & Order will be renewed based on earlier statements by NBC's Angela Bromstad that she wasn't going to be the one to cancel the show short of the broadcast drama longevity record.
Fans will know the future of all the NBC shows no later than the NBC upfront presentation on May 17.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season. Note: In past years I used the Live+Same Day ratings averages for both shows and networks, I can no longer get both of those numbers from Nielsen, only Most Current ratings averages which are Live+7 ratings when available and Live+Same Day ratings within the past 2 weeks.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
I agree. PARENTHOOD will be renewed. CHUCK will be up in the air until the end.
“NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings hulks Trauma and Mercy.”
Flawless victory, Bill. Simply flawless.
I really Don't like Parenthood. Chuck won the Eonline save our show campaign. Many of us are Chuck Fans but don't have a Nielson Box. Did you see the drive going on to save Chuck? Take note. Chuck fans are fighting hard to save our favorite show!
Chuck should be cancelled. It is a cute show, and that is all it will ever be. Mercy is a fantastic show that deserves the chance to grow over one more season. Heroes had a fantastic ending to its last season, and set itself up for a fantastic final season.
awesome for parenthood; it deserves it.. very entertainting show
hope chuck gets renewed & some miracle occurs and heroes gets some sort of 13-episode season or something to wrap everything up
Parenthood is mediocre. A lot of things that work, and a lot of story lines that don't work. While they have assembled a wonderful cast the scripts need improvement and adjusting. It doesn't shock me that Chuck won the SOS poll. I mean, was there ever any doubt? But does the SOS poll really hold any actual value?
Cindy, Sadly, polls like that are useless nonsense.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/04/05/ridiculous…
Parenthood is Shakespeare compared to Chuck. The quality is definitely uneven at times, but it is certainly one of the best shows on broadcast.
I did this for Fox, ABC and CBS already; after familiarizing myself with NBC's schedule a bit, here's how I think next season could look like:
Monday:
8p – New sitcom (single cam)
8:30p – New sitcom (single cam)
9p – New drama
10p – Law & Order (final season)
Tuesday:
8p – 10p – The Biggest Loser
10p – Law & Order: LA (new drama)
Wednesday:
8p – New drama
9p – New drama
10p – Law & Order: SVU
Thursday:
8p – 30 Rock
8:30p – Parks & Recreation
9p – The Office
9:30p – Community
10p – Parenthood
Friday:
8p – Minute to win it / Midseason: Who do you think you are
9p – 11p – Dateline
Saturday:
8p – 11p – Drama reruns
Sunday:
7p – Dateline
8p – NFL / Midseason: Marriage Ref
9p – 11p – NFL / Midseason: Celebrity Apprentice
One of the three remaining drama spots should go to that law-themed show NBC has been procrastinating on for a while now (Rex is not your lawyer, I believe it's called).
30 Rock and Parks – match made in heaven. A, Tina Fey & Amy Poehler; B, I can see both shows going on for two more seasons and that's it – I like Parks, I started watching it recently, but given the ratings, I don't see much growth potential. They're likely to get two more seasons with 25 episodes each; those 50 with the 30 that will have aired by the end of this season are enough for syndication (although 80 is the utter minimum). It's been hinted many times that 30 Rock will end in 2012 as well.
On CBS, Parenthood would get thrown back in the lake. On NBC, it looks like a trophy.
And it would have been even better on ABC, but this works too.
Speaking of shows airing on the wrong network, it just hit me that Better Off Ted would have been a hit on NBC; maybe a quiet one but still – by now it would have had 44 episodes and marching on to season 3.
Love the pic, you always know how to pick 'em!
TV execs do not care that CHUCK won a poll. NBC cares about ratings.
PARENTHOOD is Shakespeare and MERCY is a great show? What other insanity will you share with us tonight?
Gads, I was trying to forgot those foiled candy Valentine fish existed! Shesh. Gaudy gift aside, Parenthood does appear to be a renewal, barring a dramatic flame-out, going by those numbers (and remembering which network this show is on and its low bar for renewals).
Has Chuck EVER fallen below a 1 on the demo before? I know it was a repeat, but still… that's simply bad.
As to the Eonline poll, well, I wish the Chuck fans the best of good luck in the quest to save the show from the cancellation heap. However, that particular poll had Terminator: The Sarah Conner Chronicles as its winner last year and it didn't come back. So, while it's nice to win that (and some other polls that I've seen), it is going to ultimately come down to show ratings between now and either NBC's up-fronts in May (if they stick with that deadline, the last 3 episodes won't be a factor in the decision) or a delayed decision until after the last 3 episodes air. Truth be told, this may have been a bad time for Chuck to put reruns on the air because there was room to run then between now and then.
I disagree with everything that 0megapart1cle has said.
Especially in regards to Heroes, the entire Season felt so formulaic and predictable that it became a parody of itself. The show has been awful for at least 3 years, what would it wrap up if given yet more Episodes?
I thought Parenthood's pilot episode was extremely mediocre, until the last 10 minutes. That's when something clicked for me, and since then I have been enjoying it immensely. It's probably one of my favorite new shows of the season. Well, behind Justified, anyway.
I say: good for Parenthood!
I hold my tongue on Chuck.
I couldn't make it past the pilot for Parenthood; does it get better? Just for comparison, I managed to endure 2 seasons of Brothers & Sisters before quitting. I'd like some opinions on whether I should bother giving Parenthood another try. Thanks.
I've really grown to love Parenthood. It's a little uneven at times, but it's a lot better than what NBC has put out the past few years.
I like Parenthood! Yay I think itll be renewed too.
I'm done with Heroes.
I think if new episodes of Chuck can average a 2.3 or better from here on out it will be back.