Will International Audiences Save Flash Forward?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows

Written By

April 13th, 2010

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through April 11, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Better Off Ted 0.42
Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) 0.46
The Deep End 0.53
Hank 0.54*
Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) 0.54
Scrubs (P) 0.56
the forgotten 0.61
Eastwick 0.62
The Middle 0.75
Castle (P) 0.85
FlashForward (P) 0.92
Cougar Town (P) 0.96
Private Practice (P) 1.04
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.10
Modern Family 1.16
V 1.16
Grey's Anatomy (P) 1.51
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.57
Lost (final season) 1.62

-
Besides the fact that it's a sweet fan excuse bingo square, there are other advantages to whipping up desperate fans with the false hope that (undocumented) international sales will somehow save their show. It can't easily be disputed! It has the air of mystery! It's a foreign stranger riding in to save the day!

That's exactly the false hope that E! Online's throwing out to desperate fans this week (note, other show spoilers at that link):

I'm hearing there is most definitely a chance FlashForward will be renewed, because it actually does fairly well overseas and doesn't hemorrhage as much money as you'd think. A source tells me, "This is a rare case where a low domestic performer could get a surprise pickup."

That's 100% desperate fan pandering nonsense. (likely spun by someone with a vested interest in the show) Fans should not be bamboozled by notions of foreign salvation.

FlashForward ticked up to a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday (vs. a 1.5 rating the previous week).  ABC isn't going to be renewing a freshman drama with ratings that bad. C'est la vie.

Note that FlashForward's ratings average includes only a single repeat, most other ABC shows have many, and its recent ratings are far below its average rating.

V's fell to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating in its second spring outing last week. It may very well be on that slippery slope to doom I wrote about last week. But considering that every single other new drama this season on ABC has gone up in flames, I think ABC will keep it if it can hold that 2.4 rating going forward. But lower than that and ABC's pride will have to take a hit.

Note that V's ratings average contains no repeats, unlike most other ABC scripted shows.

-

The ABC boneyard:

The Deep End has ended its season and will not be coming back. Better Off Ted will be canceled. Zach Braff says Scrubs is canceled, but no official word from ABC yet.

Ugly Betty, Hank and Eastwick are already officially canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.

I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

-

Notes:

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.

What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

 
© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures