Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through April 11, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Better Off Ted | 0.42 |
| Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) | 0.46 |
| The Deep End | 0.53 |
| Hank | 0.54* |
| Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) | 0.54 |
| Scrubs (P) | 0.56 |
| the forgotten | 0.61 |
| Eastwick | 0.62 |
| The Middle | 0.75 |
| Castle (P) | 0.85 |
| FlashForward (P) | 0.92 |
| Cougar Town (P) | 0.96 |
| Private Practice (P) | 1.04 |
| Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) | 1.10 |
| Modern Family | 1.16 |
| V | 1.16 |
| Grey's Anatomy (P) | 1.51 |
| Desperate Housewives (P) | 1.57 |
| Lost (final season) | 1.62 |
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Besides the fact that it's a sweet fan excuse bingo square, there are other advantages to whipping up desperate fans with the false hope that (undocumented) international sales will somehow save their show. It can't easily be disputed! It has the air of mystery! It's a foreign stranger riding in to save the day!
That's exactly the false hope that E! Online's throwing out to desperate fans this week (note, other show spoilers at that link):
I'm hearing there is most definitely a chance FlashForward will be renewed, because it actually does fairly well overseas and doesn't hemorrhage as much money as you'd think. A source tells me, "This is a rare case where a low domestic performer could get a surprise pickup."
That's 100% desperate fan pandering nonsense. (likely spun by someone with a vested interest in the show) Fans should not be bamboozled by notions of foreign salvation.
FlashForward ticked up to a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday (vs. a 1.5 rating the previous week). ABC isn't going to be renewing a freshman drama with ratings that bad. C'est la vie.
Note that FlashForward's ratings average includes only a single repeat, most other ABC shows have many, and its recent ratings are far below its average rating.
V's fell to a 2.4 adults 18-49 rating in its second spring outing last week. It may very well be on that slippery slope to doom I wrote about last week. But considering that every single other new drama this season on ABC has gone up in flames, I think ABC will keep it if it can hold that 2.4 rating going forward. But lower than that and ABC's pride will have to take a hit.
Note that V's ratings average contains no repeats, unlike most other ABC scripted shows.
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The ABC boneyard:
The Deep End has ended its season and will not be coming back. Better Off Ted will be canceled. Zach Braff says Scrubs is canceled, but no official word from ABC yet.
Ugly Betty, Hank and Eastwick are already officially canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.
I've added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who's renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
Some interesting numbers I calculated over the weekend.
For the three shows that are still of greatest discussion on ABC (Castle, FF, and V), here are the 18-49 demos for the entire season so far. Numbers in parenthesis are repeat episodes and numbers in brackets are a clip show (only including such episodes that appear in the show's regular timeslot). These are the numbers that determine Bill's index up above, so I've included all of them…for now.
CASTLE:
2009: 2.3, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.4, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, (1.9), 2.1, (1.1), (1.0)
2010: 2.6, 2.8, 3.1, (2.2), 2.5, (1.5), (1.3) 2.4, (1.8), 3.3, 3.5, 2.9
FlashForward:
2009: 4.0, 3.7, 3.0, 3.1, 3.0, 2.7, 2.6, 2.6, 2.4, 2.1
2010: [1.5], 1.9, 1.8, 1.5, 1.6
V:
2009: 5.2, 3.8, 3.1, 3.1
2010: [1.6], 2.8, 2.4
So, nothing new there. Just giving us our starting points.
Now here's where things get interesting. I won't repost all those numbers for now, but if you strip out the repeats and clip shows, their indexes come in as follows:
Castle: 0.96
FlashForward: 0.95
V: 1.25
Unsurprisingly, all better than the regular index above.
Now for something completely different. Let's look at more recent trends. To make things simple, let's look at numbers from 2010 only (still minus repeats/clip shows, to be as fair as possible). This might better explain why a show like Castle, who initially appears to have an index much lower than FF or V, has been renewed for weeks while FF and V, which seem like shoo-ins using the initial index above, are very much in doubt.
Just as a reminder:
CASTLE:
2010: 2.6, 2.8, 3.1, 2.5, 2.4, 3.3, 3.5, 2.9
FlashForward:
2010: 1.9, 1.8, 1.5, 1.6
V:
2010: 2.8, 2.4
Their 2010 indexes thus come out as:
Castle: 1.07
FlashForward: 0.63
V: 0.96
So in conclusion:
- Castle makes for an easy renewal (which is why it got one early).
- V is still okay, but looking much shakier the longer it's going.
- FF is toast. Very crispy, burnt toast.
Whew! Okay, I'm going to go ice my fingers down now. Hope that information is useful to somebody. I know I found it interesting.
I assume that Scrubs is canceled (I hope so!) but after the whole thing last year were basically everyone involved said it was canceled and then it wasn't – I say wait for the formal press release.
Yay, the index is here! I have to admit I've been constantly checking for the past few hours… Shame on you, Bill, for spoiling me.
Anyway…
There's no hope for FF and V's future is also beginning to look bleak. Could ABC break some sort of lame record with their cancellations this year? 9 shows are most definitely gone, confirmed or not: Betty, Hank, Forgotten, FF, Lost, Scrubs, Ted, Eastwick and Deep End. The jury's still out on V and Romantically Challenged and Happy Town won't have any chance of surviving the season, as they're starting pretty late (plus, RC seems totally dated and the problem with HT is that horror shows don't really do well on broadcast TV).
ABC needs to do some reshuffling next year (move Funniest Videos to Saturday, EMHE to Friday, move at least one of the “cozy” 10PM dramas out of their slots) or this trend will continue. Also, choose pilots wisely – dated multi-cams, leftovers from other networks and subtle copies of former shows (Eastwick – Charmed, hello!) shouldn't be on their repertoire next year.
I assume NBC could kick ABC's butt in any kind of competition like that. Of course, I am counting the Jay Leno show as five failed shows, so that shows my bias
…move 20/20 there and send Funniest Videos off to Saturday.
For some reason I couldn't edit it again.
Flashforward is not returning a series with a great concept that flopped. Now while I enjoy V looks to be in trouble and looks more and more every week that V will only have one season. ABC doesn't have many bubble show everything has either already been renewed or canceled, so I suppose its going to be V – Flashforward watch until, ABC announces next falls schedule.
I can only imagine how low V will go with tonight's Glee going past 10 PM. Maybe it will pick next week, but who knows.
It'll take ABC's pride for RC to get beyond 6 episodes in an attempt to find a better timeslot this fall. Hopefully it won't be too low(even considering the circumstances – being after DWTS and againist TBBT), otherwise it's this year's Surviving Suburbia.
My jury isn't out yet on Happy Town. The only thing I'll say atm is I'll be watching the first few eps at least.
poor V
it's a good show
I'd like to see V get a second Season, but I think that it's going to fall at least a bit more before leveling off. If it's renewed then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
I don't think Flash Forward can be saved. It's unfortunate, too, because it's finally starting to get good.
Thanks for this!! I've been thinking about this stuff a lot and I'm glad somebody did it for us all.
This is pretty much how the index will work next season and I'm very much looking forward to that. Poor FF is toast – and that's a shame, because it's been quite good this side of the season – and V isn't looking very strong either. If it dips further, it's done.
Yeah I don't think V is in trouble. I think its dead. I mean seriously the show is dropping harder and faster then Flashforward and we all know that show is dead, with a capital d.
Glad it's appreciated! I actually e-mailed Bill and Robert about the idea, but they understandably are rather busy with all the other stuff they do for us on this site, so I decided to take matters into my own hands.
I was expecting FF to be bad at the end of it, but even I was surprised by the 0.63 I ended up with. Yeah, it's doner than done. I don't think it even has time to turn that kind of fall around. ABC has probably already quietly decided to scrap it. I've noticed advertising for it has gone way down, while V's is still going steady.
Speaking of which, you're exactly right when you say “if it dips further, it's done”. If ABC is considering recent trends more than the overall season numbers (which Castle's early renewal would seem to imply, and the LONG layover for FF and V would almost demand, as Bill and Robert have pointed out many times), V is already below the typical renewal line for ABC. It cannot afford to drop, and if it does, it drifts further and further into the danger zone.
Darnit, now I'm thinking about the Top Gun soundtrack. “Right into the danger zone!” Ba-dow, ba-dow!
Yeah, after 6 episodes, FF was still managing a 2.7. V premiered 1.2 higher than FF…and after 6 episodes, is down to a 2.4. For all its faults, FF didn't get that low until episode 9.
So yes, I'd be shocked if V doesn't continue to follow a similar pattern. It still has some more dropping to do. Probably not at its current extreme, nosedive-like levels, but that kind of drop doesn't just suddenly reverse course, you know?
Thanks for explaining that Ryan47 (:
“Trouble with a capital T and that rhymes with P and that stands for pool” – The Music Man.
And no, I didn't google it or anything, I watched the 2003 TV version with Kristin Chenoweth and Matthew Broderick… and I've since rewatched it quite a few times.
Whoa, it's getting late… time for bed.
(Goodnight, my someone, goodnight!)
If FlashForward had phenomenal international numbers and it was getting borderline ratings in the US, I could see the international numbers tipping it into renewal. But FF's numbers are not borderline, they're just plain awful.
I work for Nielsen and would be more than happy to explain the process and how it works. Then give you the dirt on the backroom stuff that goes on. Each and every program that you see on TV has an inaudible audio signature embedded in that only a Nielsen box can pick-up. If you’re a diary family…that unfortunately doesn’t really count against the national numbers. Diaries are used more for the local stations to help determine local ad rates. Now here’s the kicker…the Nielsen sample is not a true statistical representation of American viewing habits despite that being Nielsen’s position. What do I mean? Nielsen will target a specific demographic area and canvas that with a target family and multiple alternates in the event their target family decides not to participate. Nielsen will offer a financial incentive for families to participate (often in the form of a 20.00 cash payment). Most families decline, and you’re left with a very limited number of families who are more interested in the 20.00 payment than the statistical integrity of the sample (you will have people who are curious about the process, but that is a small minotrity of the sample). What that means if you don’t get the true few habits of: the affluent, the educated, college-age, elderly, etc… Not trying to be offensive, but the majority of our homes are lower middle class to upper lower class in terms of socio-economic indicators. Studies show those homes tend to watch A LOT of reality programming…that’s why reality TV has such high numbers. Internally, we could care less about TV ratings. Yes, that’s how Nielsen started, that’s what get’s us in the door…however it’s more profitable for us to sell demograhic data to a host of other companies (consumer packaged goods, etc…). SO when a call is made to interview you if you want to be a Nielsen family, they’re actually gathering your data to sell to companies (you’ll get questions like, income range, ages, sex, do you drink, coffee, soft drinks, how many nights a week do you go out, do you have any pets, etc…). They could care less if you sign-up for the TV ratings portion…by the time you say yes or no, they’ve already gotten all the information they want from you. So why are they still used for TV ratings…because nothing else is really out there, they’re the “standard” for ratings and our dirty little secret really isn’t out there.
I work for Nielsen and would be more than happy to explain the process and how it works. Then give you the dirt on the backroom stuff that goes on. Each and every program that you see on TV has an inaudible audio signature embedded in that only a Nielsen box can pick-up. If you’re a diary family…that unfortunately doesn’t really count against the national numbers. Diaries are used more for the local stations to help determine local ad rates. Now here’s the kicker…the Nielsen sample is not a true statistical representation of American viewing habits despite that being Nielsen’s position. What do I mean? Nielsen will target a specific demographic area and canvas that with a target family and multiple alternates in the event their target family decides not to participate. Nielsen will offer a financial incentive for families to participate (often in the form of a 20.00 cash payment). Most families decline, and you’re left with a very limited number of families who are more interested in the 20.00 payment than the statistical integrity of the sample (you will have people who are curious about the process, but that is a small minotrity of the sample). What that means if you don’t get the true few habits of: the affluent, the educated, college-age, elderly, etc… Not trying to be offensive, but the majority of our homes are lower middle class to upper lower class in terms of socio-economic indicators. Studies show those homes tend to watch A LOT of reality programming…that’s why reality TV has such high numbers. Internally, we could care less about TV ratings. Yes, that’s how Nielsen started, that’s what get’s us in the door…however it’s more profitable for us to sell demograhic data to a host of other companies (consumer packaged goods, etc…). SO when a call is made to interview you if you want to be a Nielsen family, they’re actually gathering your data to sell to companies (you’ll get questions like, income range, ages, sex, do you drink, coffee, soft drinks, how many nights a week do you go out, do you have any pets, etc…). They could care less if you sign-up for the TV ratings portion…by the time you say yes or no, they’ve already gotten all the information they want from you. So why are they still used for TV ratings…because nothing else is really out there, they’re the “standard” for ratings and our dirty little secret really isn’t out there.
Ryan47, thanks so much for those numbers. That had to take a while and it's much appreciated from the Castle fan to see the progress laid out like that.