Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 18, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
| Program | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Mercy (P) | 0.67 |
| Trauma (P) | 0.70 |
| Law & Order (Monday), (P) | 0.68 |
| Parks & Recreation (P) | 0.83 |
| Community | 0.88 |
| Chuck | 0.90 |
| Heroes (P) | 0.95 |
| Law & Order: SVU (P) | 1.05 |
| Parenthood (P) | 1.09 |
| 30 Rock (P) | 1.13 |
| The Office (P) | 1.51 |
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As expected, Parenthood has been renewed by NBC for a second season.
With the Parenthood announcement, Chuck is the only NBC show who's future is in doubt to me, and on the off chance that its ratings recover as they did last season, I'm holding it out of the remainder bin for one more week. Make no mistake, the ratings have to come back, or the show is history. They did come back about 20% at the end of last season. This season, who knows.
Note that Chuck's ratings average contains only a single repeat episode, and Heroes contains none, most of NBC's fall shows have many repeat episodes factored into their ratings averages.
The only reason I think Law & Order will be renewed based on earlier statements by NBC's Angela Bromstad that she wasn't going to be the one to cancel the show short of the broadcast drama longevity record. The ratings say it gets canceled.
Some would put Heroes on NBC's bubble. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings losers Trauma and Mercy.
Fans will know the future of all the NBC shows no later than the NBC upfront presentation on May 17.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
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Notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season. Note: In past years I used the Live+Same Day ratings averages for both shows and networks, I can no longer get both of those numbers from Nielsen, only Most Current ratings averages which are Live+7 ratings when available and Live+Same Day ratings within the past 2 weeks.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
What's the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.
what i'd give for a 13 or even 9 episode final season renewal for heroes
I think Chuck will be back for 13 midseason. NBC is going to need it to plug holes.
chuck is the only show i like from NBC. i dont give a dmn about heroes.
chuck is the only show i like from NBC. i dont give a dmn about heroes.
Chuck is soo dead. Deal with it people!!
I've already posted this on another post but this is how I see NBC's schedule next season:
Mondays:
8PM New Drama (Drama – Kindreds?)
9PM New Drama (Sci-Fi, Fictional Drama – The Cape?)
10PM Law & Order: LA
Tuesdays:
8PM New Comedy (Multicam)
8:30 New Comedy (Multicam)
9PM Parenthood
10PM New Drama (Procedural – Chase?)
Wednesday:
8PM The Biggest Loser
10PM Law & Order: SVU
Thursday:
8PM Parks and Recreation
8:30 Community
9PM The Office
9:30 30 Rock
10PM New Drama (Undercovers?)
Fridays:
8PM Minute to Win It (Fall) / Who Do You Think You Are (Midseason)
9PM Law & Order (Fall-Final Season of 13 Episodes) / The Marriage Ref (Midseason)
10PM Dateline
Saturdays:
Encores
Sundays: (Midseason after football)
7PM Minute to Win It
8PM The Apprentice
9PM The Apprentice or New Drama (The Event?) if NBC uses 1 hr format for The Apprentice
10PM New Drama (Procedural – The Rockford Files?)
I don't know if NBC will run both The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice, or if they will drop the Celebrity addition, if they do run both, then one of the “New Drama” timeslots would go to The Apprentice.
The reason I have moved TBL to Wednesday is because if NBC launches a new comedy block next season I'd expect them to want the new block to steer clear of ABC's Wednesday block.
it better be renewed, besides Parenthood, Chuck is the only other good thing that's been conceived from this network. if anything Chuck would be a perfect mid-season replacement as i'm sure NBC will need it.
Chuck is the only show I am currently watching on NBC. I do hope it comes back, but if not I won't be crushed the way I would have been last season. Just hasn't been as good this year.
I am sure I will check out some of the new shows NBC debuts in the Fall. Hopefully Rex Is Not Your Lawyer, but not holding my breath on that getting picked up.
how does Heroes have a better renew/cancell then Chuck? when chuck always has better ratings and audience…..
this new posting system SUCKS
The only way NBC will renew Chuck at this point is as a midseason replacement (which is a perfectly reasonable reason for renewing the show). Not all of the new shows will be hits, look at their previous track record with new shows (1 this season, Community; 1 last season, Parks and Rec; Chuck from 07-08; 30 Rock and Heroes from 06-07). That's a pretty bad record for new shows and I'd expect only a few of the new shows (Undercovers maybe) to be hits next year. They need something to fill in the holes that are left by low rated dramas.
Heroes, Trauma, and Mercy are completely dead at this point.
Law and Order will be back, probably for 13 episodes to break the record
“Note that Chuck’s ratings average contains only a single new episode”
Don't you mean single repeat episode (vs First Class) to this point (I assume vs the Beard is not in this calculation yet)
I really wouldn't mind having Chuck as a mid season replacement. Or doing the 24 route where it only runs in the Spring.
chef91++. It set up a great premise for a final season. I hope NBC sees the light.
I like Chuck, but it has only briefly had glimmers of greatness, and overall, it is just an OK show.
Mercy is so good, I can't believe so few people watch it.
You forgot Parenthood for this season.
Well, I guess unless someone can come up with a better plan, I am going to watch “Chuck” for the next five weeks with my family, and enjoy each jewel of an episode. It's always hard to lose a favorite program that could have gone on another season or two more, but I cannot fight the polled audience, or pull them away from their tastes and habits. I am not giving up hope yet for a spike in the numbers, renewal for a full 22 episodes for Season 4, and a September premiere this fall, but I am realistic that it is a big, tall wish.
I did forget parenthood sorry, but still two shows is not that good (I'm only counting scripted)
Figuring out Chuck's future is starting to fall into the same area as solving a Rubik's Cube.
On the positive side, there's a strong fan base; notable, quirky characters (although opinions about some of them this year have been varied); and it's on a network that has few true positives to boast about regarding its prime time line-ups.
On the negative side, the fan base is not a LARGE, strong fan base, and there is no guarantee the currently-missing fans will return for the last episodes this season; the storytelling this season has been problematic enough to have caused an eruption among some of the fans; NBC may not choose to renew a show it doesn't own in favor of something else because of expense and/or a desire to try something else, ratings be damned at this point; while there is a campaign (I am assuming) on to save the show, the buzz behind it is not nearly so prevalent as it was last year.
If the Renewal/Cancel Index is to be believed, the renewals of Parks & Recreation and Community should be encouraging signs (although comedies tend to cost less to make), yet Heroes has not yet been official renewed or canceled, it sits above Chuck, and it's likely to be canceled because of falling ratings and expense, so that's a bad sign.
I would be surprised if Chuck's fate is decided before the up-fronts in May at the earliest. Like last year, they may go past the up-fronts and into the later part of the month (but no later than Memorial Day weekend). If it gets renewed, it's going to be another short season and probable mid-season replacement slot. It's still a coin toss at the moment. It's up to the Chuck fans to bring those numbers up.
If NBC does not renew Chuck Boycott NBC! I would only watch it for my local news.
Like that'll do any good. It just means you'll miss out on any future shows they have that you might enjoy.