Renew / Cancel 2.0 beta: What Does It Tell Us About Your Shows?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 21st, 2010


As I wrote earlier,
I'm likely to make several changes to the Renew / Cancel Index for next season to remove the confusion caused by differing repeat levels and varying unscripted ratings from network to network, but there are other changes I'll test out as well after this season's done.

The way I'm likely to go is to make the new index the result of dividing a shows new episode 18-49 ratings average by the new episode 18-49 ratings averages of all the shows on that particular network.

Were I doing that already this year, how would those numbers look, and what are some of my other ideas?

ABC

Another thing I might try with the final numbers from this season is weighting later episode ratings more than earlier ratings, since, for example, Castle is doing much better than Flash Forward lately and has already been renewed, but their new episode averages are quite similar. How to do that without making it a calculation nightmare is the problem.

Program Renew/ Cancel 2.0 beta
Better Off Ted 0.40
Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) 0.43
The Deep End 0.50
Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) 0.52
Scrubs (P) 0.55
Hank 0.57
Eastwick 0.59
the forgotten 0.63
The Middle 0.79
FlashForward (P) 0.88
Castle (P) 0.92
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.03
Cougar Town (P) 1.04
V 1.14
Private Practice (P) 1.19
Modern Family 1.30
Lost 1.53
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.53
Grey's Anatomy (P) 1.70

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CBS

Is there a different relative ratings "cutoff" line for comedies and dramas? Quite possibly. I will look into it. For example, while Cold Case is certainly a goner, I would be pretty surprised if all three of AoP, Christine and Gary were canceled even though their ratings averages are lower.

Program Renew/ Cancel 2.0 beta
Miami Medical (F) 0.44
Three Rivers (P) 0.56
Numb3rs (F), (P) 0.57
Accidentally On Purpose (Wed) (P) 0.60
Medium (F), (P) 0.61
Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) 0.61
New Adventures of Old Christine (S) 0.63
Gary Unmarried 0.68
Cold Case (P) 0.68
The Good Wife (P) 0.89
Rules of Engagement 0.97
CSI:NY (P) 1.00
The Mentalist 1.10
CSI (P) 1.11
How I Met Your Mother (S) 1.14
NCIS: Los Angeles (P) 1.15
Criminal Minds (P) 1.17
CSI: Miami (P) 1.19
NCIS (P) 1.35
Two and a Half Men 1.58
Big Bang Theory 1.68

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CW

Does it matter that I use adults 18-49 ratings when the CW claims to want to attract women 18-34? My guess is no, but I'll see what using women 18-34 would have produced after the season's over.

Program Renew/ Cancel 2.0 beta
The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) 0.46
Melrose Place (P) 0.62
Life Unexpected (P) 0.86
90210 (P) 0.88
Smallville (F), (P) 0.95
Gossip Girl (P) 1.00
One Tree Hill (P) 1.03
Supernatural (S), (P) 1.11
Vampire Diaries (P) 1.56

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Fox

Not having to treat Fox's shows differently because of unscripted ups and downs in the rest of their lineup would be a major benefit of the potential 2.0 changes.

Program Renew/ Cancel 2.0 beta
Til Death (S), (F) 0.25
Dollhouse (F), (P) 0.29
Brothers (F) 0.30
Til Death (Sunday) (S) 0.32
Past Life 0.45
Sons of Tucson 0.69
Human Target (Wed only) 0.77
Fringe 0.81
Lie To Me (P) 0.95
24 1.00
Bones (P) 1.02
American Dad (P) 1.05
The Cleveland Show (P) 1.14
Glee (P) 1.22
The Simpsons (P) 1.23
Family Guy (P) 1.35
House 1.73

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NBC

How can I factor in "we've got to break the drama longevity record"? Probably can't.

Program Renew/ Cancel 2.0 beta
Law & Order (F), (P) 0.63
Trauma (P) 0.71
Mercy (P) 0.71
Law & Order (Monday), (P) 0.76
Parks & Recreation (P) 0.89
Community 0.93
Chuck 0.96
Heroes (P) 0.97
Parenthood (P) 1.11
Law & Order: SVU (P) 1.15
30 Rock (P) 1.24
The Office (P) 1.71

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What do all those codes mean?

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
 
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