CBS Spring Ratings Don’t Help Clarify Bubble Show Fates
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through April 25, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Miami Medical (F)||0.45|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.56|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Accidentally On Purpose (Wed) (P)||0.58|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.58|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.62|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.61|
|Cold Case (P)||0.71|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.82|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.05|
|Rules Of Engagement||1.05|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.07|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.08|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.13|
|Two And A Half Men||1.52|
|Big Bang Theory||1.60|
Relative new episode scripted show ratings since 12/28/09
|Miami Medical (F)||0.42|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.59|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.59|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.59|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.63|
|Cold Case (P)||0.75|
|Accidentally On Purpose (Wed) (P)||0.84|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.89|
|Rules of Engagement||0.99|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.09|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.12|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.16|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.16|
|Two And A Half Men||1.72|
|Big Bang Theory||1.79|
I’ve written about my ideas for new methods for the Renew / Cancel Index for next season. One idea is comparing only new episode scripted show ratings after the holidays. While I’m not sure where the new method would have me “draw the line” between renewal and cancellation until I can take the entire season into account, I’m pretty sure we can use them to take a closer look at this season’s bubble shows, so I’ll be including the “experimental” relative new episode ratings for the last few week’s worth of posts.
Just as I did with ABC, I went back over my assessment of CBS bubble shows looking only at relative new episode ratings for CBS shows since the beginning of 2010. Sadly, it doesn’t make the bubble show situation for CBS shows much clearer.
Accidentally On Purpose Wednesay only ratings look better than both Gary Unmarried’s and Old Christine’s, but CBS’ attitude about its second comedy block (keep it and suffer the bad ratings vs. abandon it) will still likely spell the future for all three, I still judge all as being “in some danger of being canceled”.
The spring only new episode ratings of all three “original” Friday shows (Ghost Whisperer, Medium, and Numb3rs) are so close, that I don’t think the differences are material. For that reason, I now assess all three to be simply “in some danger of being canceled”. That’s no change for my recent assessment of Medium, but a bump up for Numb3rs, and a bump down for Ghost Whisperer. I think it’s likely CBS cancels one of the three to make room for new shows, unlikely that they cancel two, and highly unlikely they cancel all three.
The new methods give no solace to Cold Case fans, the show is still CBS’ lowest rated scripted non-Friday drama. It’ll be canceled to make room for a new show. Miami Medical is sure to be canceled no matter how you look at the numbers (except perhaps upside down).
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS’s case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.