Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 25, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (Monday), (P)||0.66|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.83|
|Law & Order: (P)||1.05|
Relative new episode scripted show ratings since 12/28/09
|Law & Order (Monday), (P)||0.76|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.91|
|Law & Order:(P)||1.21|
I’ve written about my ideas for new methods for the Renew / Cancel Index for next season. One idea is comparing only new episode scripted show ratings after the holidays. While I’m not sure where the new method would have me “draw the line” between renewal and cancellation until I can take the entire season into account, I’m pretty sure we can use them to take a closer look at this season’s bubble shows, so I’ll be including the “experimental” relative new episode ratings for the last few week’s worth of posts.
Just as I did with ABC shows, looking just at the new episode spring ratings for NBC shows indicates to me that Heroes, as far as it has fallen in the spring, hasn't fallen far enough relative to other NBC shows to completely count it out. For that reason, I'm changing my assessment of it back to "some danger of being canceled".
The same comparison of Chuck's relative new episode spring ratings makes it look a lot better in relation to other NBC shows. At this point I don't think it's "likely to be renewed", but I cannot see it moving into the "likely to be canceled" category either, it'll probably be in the "some danger of being canceled" category until the official announcement.
Note that Chuck's ratings average contains two repeat episodes, and Heroes contains none, most of NBC's fall shows have many repeat episodes factored into their ratings averages.
The only reason I think Law & Order will be renewed based on earlier statements by NBC's Angela Bromstad that she wasn't going to be the one to cancel the show short of the broadcast drama longevity record. Definitive statements like that from network execs are extremely rare. The ratings would indicate it gets canceled.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings losers Trauma and Mercy.
Fans will know the future of all the NBC shows no later than the NBC upfront presentation on May 17.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC's calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show's season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network's 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network's average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season. Note: In past years I used the Live+Same Day ratings averages for both shows and networks, I can no longer get both of those numbers from Nielsen, only Most Current ratings averages which are Live+7 ratings when available and Live+Same Day ratings within the past 2 weeks.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) - Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) - Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) - Produced by the network's production company - For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network's corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it's unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.