Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 25, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.20|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.23|
|Til Death (Sunday)||0.26|
|Sons Of Tucson||0.54|
|Human Target (Wed only)||0.60|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.68|
|American Dad (P)||0.74|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||0.80|
|The Simpsons (P)||0.88|
|Family Guy (P)||0.96|
Relative new episode scripted show ratings since 12/28/09
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.29|
|Til Death (Sunday) (S)||0.33|
|Sons of Tucson||0.73|
|Human Target (Wed only)||0.82|
|American Dad (P)||0.96|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||0.98|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.16|
|Family Guy (P)||1.25|
I’ve written about my ideas for new methods for the Renew / Cancel Index for next season. One idea is comparing only new episode scripted show ratings after the holidays. While I’m not sure where the new method would have me “draw the line” between renewal and cancellation until I can take the entire season into account, I’m pretty sure we can use them to take a closer look at this season’s bubble shows, so I’ll be including the “experimental” relative new episode ratings for the last few week’s worth of posts.
Just as I did with ABC shows, looking just at new episode ratings this spring makes me reassess the situation for Human Target. It’s been below average this spring for Fox compared to new episodes of other scripted shows, but not so much below average to automatically indicate cancellation. For that reason, I’m backing up my assessment of the show to “some danger of being cancelled”.
Fans will know the future of Human Target & Lie To Me no later than the Fox upfront presentation on May 17.
Lie To Me is off Fox’s schedule until June 7, so no more ratings data for it before renewal or cancellation time. I think it could go either way. A lot depends on whether Fox puts a three hour/week reality show (like SYTYCD or something else) into its fall schedule. A 3 hour reality block on the schedule next fall would almost certainly spell doom for Lie To Me.
Dollhouse, Brothers, Sons Of Tucson and ‘Til Death are all officially canceled, and 24 is officially in its last season. ‘Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!
House is effectively renewed, Hugh Laurie is under contract for another season, there just hasn’t been an official announcement by Fox.
Note that Human Target’s Wednesday average in the top table contains only new episodes, so it’s not comparable to shows with many repeats.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.