Should the fact that One Tree Hill is the CW's only "veteran" show not yet renewed worry fans?
What, Me Worry?
- One Tree Hill's ratings are solidly in the middle of the CW pack, and networks rarely cancel their "average" shows.
- Except for Vampire Diaries, the ratings track record for new CW shows in the last several years can charitably be described as "poor".
Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid...
- The CW renewed most of its existing line up in mid-February. And renewed Smallville in early March. That leaves only freshman Life Unexpected and One Tree Hill in limbo. Life Unexpected's situation makes sense, its ratings are below where I would be confident of renewal, but not certain of its cancellation. The One Tree Hill silence cannot be explained by marginal ratings.
- Shows entering their eighth season (like OTH) are highly unlikely to grow their ratings.
- Shows entering their eighth season (like OTH) are likely to be more expensive to produce than similar new shows simply because of cost escalation over time.
- Canceling One Tree Hill allows the CW to premiere three new shows next fall instead of just two. Assuming they don't schedule originals at 9pm Friday, which I doubt they will.
- One Tree Hill isn't a Dawn Ostroff product, it predates the creation of the CW itself. No sentimentality renewal bonus.
Could OTH's fate be tied to the CW's pilot season outcomes? Perhaps.
Could OTH's fate already be decided and we'll just find out on May 20 that it's not in the CW fall schedule. Perhaps.
Fans wanting to get a jump on the inevitable frenzy if the show's canceled should note that SaveOneTreeHill.com is available.