Justified has already been renewed for a second season.
Is Justified the next Sons of Anarchy for FX or the next Damages? I'd bet on neither, but rather somewhere in the middle.
One advantage Justified has over Damages is it's a procedural. Yes, I know, there are serial elements, but, it's still a procedural. Without ever having watched an episode you could watch tonight's episode and not be completely lost. That's not the case with a show like Damages.
Justified had a nice sampling in its first two weeks, then dropped off dramatically. That said, it was pretty stable for the next eight episodes before hitting series lows on May 25.
I haven't seen any Live+7 numbers for individual episodes beyond the first couple of weeks. While there's no doubt some people are watching on DVR and some people are watching the encores, you can rest assured that most of the viewers who sampled the first couple episodes and are no longer watching live or the same night on DVR are just no longer watching.
Compared to broadcast, it's almost impossible to handicap renewal prospects for cable shows, but there's not much point in handicapping these numbers anyway -- and not because "the critics love it!" but because it's already been renewed. It's next season's numbers that will matter.
Justified Season 1 Ratings:
|Justified||Net||Date||L+SD 18-49 Rating/Sh||L+SD Viewers (Millions)|
|Fire In the Hole||FX||March 16, 2010||1.5/5||4.151|
|Riverbrook||FX||March 23, 2010||1.4/4||3.536|
|Fixer||FX||March 30, 2010||0.9/3||2.308|
|Long In Tooth||FX||April 6, 2010||0.9/2||2.100|
|The Lord of War and Thunder||FX||April 13, 2010||0.9/3||2.407|
|The Collection||FX||April 20, 2010||0.8/2||2.058|
|Blind Spot||FX||April 27, 2010||0.8/2||2.257|
|Blowback||FX||May 4, 2010||0.9/3||2.456|
|Hatless||FX||May 11, 2010||0.8/2||2.088|
|The Hammer||FX||May 18, 2010||0.8/2||2.082|
|Veterans||FX||May 25, 2010||0.7/2||1.814|
|Fathers and Sons||FX||June 1, 2010||0.8/2||2.129|
|Bulletville||FX||June 8, 2010||0.8/2||2.031|
All numbers are live plus same day DVR viewing (up to three AM following the initial telecast) for the Tuesday 10pm telecasts.
Nielsen Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.