Continuing our hour by hour coverage of the fall schedule, we move to Monday nights at 10pm. Castle takes on scripted newcomers Chase on NBC and Hawaii Five-0 on CBS.
Monday Nights 10pm-11pm:
| Monday | 10:00p | 10:30p |
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Castle | |
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Hawaii Five-0 New | |
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Chase New |
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Who'll Win?
Will the third time be the charm for Alex O'Loughlin or will it be three strikes and he's out? How will Mike & Molly do as a lead-in for Hawaii Five-0? Will The Event provide a decent lead-in for The Chase?
Some are dubbing Hawaii Five-0 "NCIS: Hawaii." To me, that smacks much more of ratings stability than ratings stigma and I'm pretty sure CBS won't be upset if the show is perceived that way.
If The Big Bang Theory were still leading in to Hawaii Five-O, I'd guess H50 wins easily once the dust of the new season settles. I'm not sure how Mike & Molly will perform but once the dust settles I have Hawaii Five-0 winning the hour, with Castle in second and Chase in last.
We're not quite done with our hour-by-hour coverage, look for the last of the coverage in the coming week . You can find all the hour-by-hour coverage here.
I admit that as a Castle fan, I’m nervous.
Robert do you think Hawaii Five-O will beat CSI: Miami’s fall 2009 premiere? which would have to be above a 4.3.
I think Castle will beat its second season premiere, and Chase should beat The Jay Leno Show.
Castle will start badly, but over time folks will abandon Chase (or, as it’s on NBC, have NBC abandon it for them) and Castle will pick up. Hawaii Five-0 will open way stronger than CSI: Miami in thisslot, then fall back, but still win the hour
The finishing order is easy to guess in this slot, considering the lead-ins that these shows hav and the absence of Fox shows.
Hawaii 5-0 will finish first, then Castle and lastly Chase.
Dancing with the Stars >>>>> The Event ratings-wise.
I think H50 will have a strong premiere, and could perhaps beat CSI: Miami’s 2009 premiere, but I have no clue about how Mike & Molly will do and didn’t look to see who the 9/20 Monday Night Football game is or who played in the game that went up against CSI: Miami’s premiere last year so not comfortable with making a premiere prediction at this time.
I don’t know how much you think H5O will win by, but I think it will be quite close. Castle may win some weeks when it has a direct lead-in from Dancing with the Stars.
Castle should do better than last year (one could hope), if the upward trend continues. I expect Hawaii to do well, while Chase will probably be replaced at mid-season.
CBS – Hawaii 5-0 – 4.0
ABC – Castle – 3.3
NBC – Chase – 2.0
It will be interesting to see who the new cast is for DWTS tonight. That might give us some insight into how good of a lead-in Castle will have.
Saints at 49ers this year vs Colts at Dolphins last year.
Saints at 49ers this year vs Colts at Dolphins last year.
I think that while Castle will do well, Hawaii 5-0 has the easy win here. If Castle can maintain its mid-2s or even build to around a 3, ABC will be happy. On the other hand, if Hawaii 5-0 doesn’t maintain mid-3s, CBS will consider it a failure. I think Chase is really dependent on how The Event does, at least initially. It will most likely come in third, but if it manages to keep above a 2.0, NBC might stick with it.
I think it has been already announced. There should be that guy from “Jersey Shore”, one girl of the Palin’s family, Brandy, the actress that shot “Dirty Dancing” and other people I don’t remember.
ABC – Castle – 3.3
Averaging a 3.3 is a pretty major jump for a show that was getting a 2.5 most of last season. I could see trending up to average 2.8-3.0.
The official announcement is tonight. Everything you heard so far is speculation.
I think the wild card here is how big a boost DWTS gets from its tabloid casting. If it’s up significantly, it could boost Castle into the mid-3′s, which could be enough to beat Hawaii Five-0, when Mike & Molly flops.
I disagree. I think Castle is a great show that has gained steam from a bubble to show to a show with a loyal following. I don’t think Chase is getting enough credit. It might surprise everyone and be a sleeper hit. Chase is about US Federal Marshalls. That’s new and different. It also has a woman as the lead. That has been a recent trend in television i.e. The Closer, Rizzoli & Isles, Hawthorne, In Plain Sight. I think the public finds these types of shows refreshing. Hawaii is another remake and its cast is wrong. I hope you are wrong and Castle wins the night because it certainly deserves it.
Also, Hawaii can win the night but to survive on CBS it would have to have extremely high numbers. It’s a very expensive show. Castle can survive with 9-10 million viewers. Hawaii can be cancelled with 12 million viewers.
Same here. Hope it can get renewed still.
I still maintain Chase will be one of the biggest flops of the season.
Another slot where the lack of information on DWTS’ lineup may affect things – but not by much.
I see H50 doing Miami’s numbers plus a couple tenths for nostalgia, Castle doing around the Spring average, and Chase being not long for this world. I’d be surprised if Chase is still airing in February.
To summarize:
H50 3.5
Castle 2.8
Chase 1.8
I agree. It’ll probably be Hawaii Five-0, Castle, and Chase.
It’s possible Castle could have some 18-49 lead over Hawaii? MAYBE? Specially when DTWS is it’s lead in? I donno maybe but we’ll see…
I wouldn’t be concerned. Castle won’t do any worse w/ Hawaii Five-0 up against it as it did w/ CSI Miami.
No way Five-0 is going to be a smash hit….