CW: Falling Behind The Pack, Expect Life Unexpected To Be Cancelled
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through September 26, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Life Unexpected||:cry: :cry:||0.66|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.80|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||0.88|
|Hellcats||:) :) :) :)||0.97|
|Nikita||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.09|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.15|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.15|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.36|
Two weeks after the CW began its season premieres, the ratings of all the CW shows were too close together and it impossible to tell if Life Unexpected would be a cancellation casualty. After three weeks, the show has separated itself from the CW pack in the wrong direction, and has dropped into the ratings range that indicates Life Unexpected is likely to be cancelled.
90210 is the show in the next greatest danger, but it’s still in toss up range at this point, and there’s a lot more season to go.
How many shows will the CW cancel this season? With Smallville in its final season, my guess is that they cancel 1-3 additional shows (including mid-season replacements) to leave 2-4 slots free for new shows next season. Last season the CW cancelled 2 shows (The Beautiful Life, Melrose Place).
It’s important to remember that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.