ABC: Going (Detroit 1-8-7), Going (The Whole Truth), Gone (My Generation)
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 3, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||:oops:||0.45|
|Detroit 1-8-7||:cry: :cry:||0.73|
|Better With You||:| :| :|||0.78|
|The Middle||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Brothers & Sisters||:) :) :) :)||0.98|
|Private Practice||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|Cougar Town||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|No Ordinary Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.07|
|Desperate Housewives||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.45|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.62|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.67|
ABC’s rookie dramas have had a very rocky start. Last season, ABC ended up keeping only one if its rookie dramas, V, and perhaps that just to save a little face. This season My Generation has already been pulled off the schedule (and before I could rewrite the song!).
Last week I noted that The Whole Truth was certain to be cancelled. Nothing’s changed there. I make it better than even money that it gets pulled from the schedule before its 13 episode order finishes.
After a second week, Detroit 1-8-7 also seems destined for the cancellation dustbin. My current guess is that it survives through its 13 week episode order, but there’s almost no chance it returns next season. I don’t think ABC has the bench strength right now to yank 3 hour long dramas before any of them complete their 13 episode orders, but they may surprise me.
Better With You slid to just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating in its second week. That’s a big danger signal. You might see it in the headline of this post next week.
The premiere of No Ordinary Family was the only rookie start so far this season that didn’t have ABC reaching for the Pepto Bismol.
All of ABC’s veteran scripted shows are doing fine.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.