CW: Who Emerges From The Ratings Scrum?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 3, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||:| :| :|||0.85|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|Hellcats||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.05|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.05|
|Nikita||:) :) :) :)||1.08|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.40|
Three plus weeks into the CW’s season and six of its nine scripted shows (90210, Gossip Girl, One Tree Hill, Smallville, Supernatural, and Nikita) registered the same 1.0 adults 18-49 rating last week, and Hellcats was close behind with a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. With those ratings it’s hard to figure out which shows will emerge from that pack to be renewed or cancelled, but it’s likely their ratings will diverge at least a bit in the future. If they don’t, I may need to break out the women 18-34 ratings and see if those paint a clearer picture.
Life Unexpected is the only CW show certain to be cancelled at this point. I don’t expect Life Unexpected to be pulled before it finishes its entire order this season. It isn’t doing any worse relatively than Melrose Place was last season, and the CW kept it on through its entire order.
How many shows will the CW cancel this season? With Smallville in its final season, my guess is that they cancel 1-3 additional shows (including mid-season replacements) to leave 2-4 slots free for new shows next season. Last season the CW cancelled 2 shows (The Beautiful Life, Melrose Place).
It’s important to remember that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.