NBC: Undercovers Slips Between Chuck And The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 3, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.81|
|Chase||:| :| :|||0.87|
|Parenthood||:) :) :) :)||0.95|
|30 Rock||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.03|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.19|
|Law & Order: LA||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.27|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.27|
|The Event||:) :) :) :)||1.29|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.60|
After salivating over Chuck last week, the NBC cancellation bear now turns its attention to stumbling Undercovers.
Undercover’s 1.6 adults 18-49 rating last week drops it back behind Chuck in the race against cancellation. Chuck fans got a bit more good news with the Chase ratings from last night, but that won’t be factored in until next week’s Index.
Community needs to arrest its ratings slide quickly, or the bear will catch its scent as well.
Of course, Outlaw will be cancelled and not return next season. The only question is how much longer it survives on the schedule this season. Discuss amongst yourselves.
The Event’s rating slide definitely leaves “The Next Lost” title far from its grasp, but on NBC it will have to slide further to get cancelled. Even last night’s 2.4 rating was NBC’s average for scripted shows last week. This week a 2.4 rating will probably be above average.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.