Got an e-mail this morning asking about whether The Event would get a back 9 order.
Obviously, this [the ratings trend] isn't a good sign, but wouldn't NBC first cancel Chuck, Chase and especially Undercovers? All three are doing worse. I assume The Event is much more expensive than any of those three, but still, it is NBC's highest rated new scripted performer, so isn't it possible that they'll order more episodes (and possibly renew) due to lack of alternatives? This kept happening with Heroes, for example.
All the shows mentioned above have 13 episode orders, and based on current ratings, I don't see any of them getting pulled before they air all 13 episodes. And Chuck's relative position has vastly improved by virtue of remaining relatively stable while all the others have dropped.
The question of the back 9 order for The Event isn't really something the Renew/Cancel Index focuses on, but it's a very interesting question. NBC has put a lot of eggs in The Event's basket, and while the ratings trend is not The Event's friend and is probably causing some heart palpitations at NBC, I'm guessing it's not viewed as a rotten egg quite yet.
I'd guess the next two or three weeks tell the tale for whether The Event gets a back 9 order. If it stabilizes from here (last night's adults 18-49 rating was a 2.4) I can't imagine NBC not ordering a back 9. I'd also guess it's likely to get a back 9 even if there are modest drops the next few weeks.
If it continues its ratings free fall and is pulling a 1.3 rating in a few weeks, NBC probably won't have any choice but to end it after 13 episodes.