Fox: Fringe & Lie To Me; New Season, Same Bad Choice
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 10, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||:oops:||0.27|
|Fringe||:| :| :|||0.70|
|Lie To Me||:| :| :|||0.73|
|Bones||:) :) :) :)||0.92|
|American Dad||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Raising Hope||:) :) :) :)||1.01|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.02|
|The Simpsons||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.27|
|Family Guy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.38|
|House||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.39|
In a near exact replay of last season, Fox has several cancelled or certain to be cancelled shows (Lone Star, Running Wilde, The Good Guys), and the same two shows doing poorly (Lie To Me, Fringe) that they’ll have to make renewal or cancellation choices over.
Last May they decided to bring both Lie To Me and Fringe back, perhaps because they knew 3 hours of their Fall 2011 schedule would be The X-Factor and they needed some temporary fill ins. Whatever the reason, they have the same bad choice again this year. Again, I doubt they bring *both* back (but I’ve been wrong before!), and they could easily choose to bring back neither.
Raising Hope has received an order for its “back 9” episodes, so it will have a full 22 episode season. Last week its 18-49 ratings fell to the Fox scripted show average that week of 2.5. That still looks good for renewal if it can stabilize there.
The Good Guys is certain to be cancelled. I’d expect it to be pulled out of its timeslot before the November sweeps period. Even if it continues, it won’t be renewed once all its new episodes air.
Hanging over the entire Fox Fall schedule is the fact that The X-Factor will be taking 3 of the 10 Monday-Friday primetime hours come next Fall. After Lone Star’s cancellation, that still leaves at least 2 hours that are on the current schedule (including unscripted shows) now that must go.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.