NBC: The Cancellation Bear Has His Eyes On Chase
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 10, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outlaw (F)||Saturday burn off||0.55|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Parenthood||:) :) :) :)||0.97|
|30 Rock||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Law & Order: LA||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.17|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.20|
|The Event||:) :) :) :)||1.24|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.24|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.61|
Rookie drama Chase* has now moved between Chuck and the cancellation bear, joining Undercovers as a show likely to be caught by the bear before the end of the season.
*Chase’s overall ratings average through last week is still higher, but that will change when last night’s results are included in the averages next week.
Community ratings slipped another tenth of a point last week to just a 1.8. With the cancellation bear so busy right now, it’s still a toss up for next season.
Chuck ratings continue to remain relatively stable as much of the rest of the NBC line up disintegrates. Last week, Chuck’s 1.9 rating was only two tenths below NBC’s scripted show average rating of 2.1.
The Event’s and Outsourced’s ratings continue to slide, but last week they were still above average for all NBC scripted shows. (NBC’s scripted show ratings average is on a toboggan ride downward). At this point, they are still more likely to be renewed than cancelled. In a few weeks, who knows.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.