CW: Life Unexpected Underwater; Everything Else, Still Afloat
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 17, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||:) :) :) :)||0.87|
|One Tree Hill||:) :) :) :)||0.93|
|Gossip Girl||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|Hellcats||:) :) :) :)||0.94|
|Supernatural (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.04|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.09|
|Nikita||:) :) :) :)||1.10|
|Vampire Diaries||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.45|
Life Unexpected is the only CW show certain to be cancelled by the end of the season. It should finish its entire episode order this season because it’s doing no worse relatively than Melrose Place was last season. It even got an order for two more scripts last week, but there’s no way its coming back next season. Don’t forget that Melrose Place got six additional episodes last season before being sent down the rails to Cancellville.
The rest of CW shows that had new episodes last week from Monday-Wednesday (repeats on Thursday) all scored the very same 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. Too close to call any differences in their renewal prospects right now.
Smallville is in its final season, and Supernatural’s adults 18-49 ratings on Friday are so good that the CW would be nuts to get rid of it regardless of its women 18-34 ratings.
It’s important to remember that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.