NBC: Chase, Chuck Get Full Seasons; Undercovers More Scripts; But The Cancellation Bear Can Wait
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 17, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outlaw (F)||Saturday burn off||0.56|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Parenthood||:| :| :|||0.96|
|Law & Order: LA||:) :) :) :)||1.06|
|30 Rock||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.10|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.15|
|The Event||:| :| :|||1.17|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.22|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.63|
First of all, the Chase and Undercovers news indicates to me that NBC must really hate its mid-season replacement dramas. All of them. A lot.
With the full season pickups of Outsourced, The Event and Law & Order: Los Angeles as well as Chuck and Chase it seems like a good time to remind everyone that the Renew / Cancel Index predicts renewal or cancellation for NEXT SEASON, not full season pickups for this season. A full season order this season does not guarantee renewal for next season.
The news that Chase was picked up for a full season doesn’t change the prediction that it’s likely to be cancelled at the end of the season. Same with the reports that Undercovers was given an order for new scripts. It too will be cancelled by the end of this season. They’ll both go before Chuck, but I don’t think Chuck is in much better shape.
Parenthood has now slipped into the “toss up” category. Its weekly ratings have recently been below even NBC’s pathetic average for its scripted shows.
Was that 1.9 rating for Law & Order: LA last week a fluke? We’ll have to wait and see.
With the pickup of Outsourced for a full season, NBC looks likely to expand their sitcom time on the schedule starting in mid-season. That seems far more likely to me than benching either Community or Parks & Recreation.
Outlaw is dead and its episodes are being burned off on Saturdays.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.