As the demographic balance of the nation tilts away from an Anglo majority, the largest TV network in the country will soon be Hispanic. Univision CEO Joe Uva is confident they’re on target to achieve this in as little as three years.
Even if you assume Univision can keep growing its primetime 18-49 ratings by 10% a season, and the big English broadcasters keep losing theirs at a rate of 5% a season, three years isn't going to close the gap on any of the big broadcasters *during* the 35 week broadcast "season".
However, with those growth and loss rates, Univision would pass the lower rated 3 (ABC, NBC, Fox), and be close to CBS's ratings in five years.
Don't think Univision can maintain a 10% growth rate for five years? Even a slightly lower growth rate for them closes the gap within a couple more years.
Here's the latest season to date primetime ratings through 4 weeks:
In terms of the full calendar year ratings (vs. the 35 week broadcast "season") Univision is a bit closer, and will likely close the gap sooner.
Here were the 52 week annual primetime averages ending in late September, 2010 for adults 18-49: