Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 24, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||order cut to 13 episodes||0.40|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.61|
|The Good Wife||0.81|
|Rules of Engagement||0.97|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.05|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.14|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.18|
|Big Bang Theory||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.47|
Every CBS rookie show was given a full season order! They're all sure to be renewed for next season, right? Right!?
Of course not.
In network PR land, there never is heard a discouraging word, and the skies (for all shows) are not cloudy all day*.
With all those full season pick-ups CBS will have an interesting puzzle fitting all their mid-season shows into the schedule. They made their first move today, cutting Medium's episode order to 13.
Regardless of how they do it, next Fall they'll want to bring in 4-5 hours of new scripted shows, so CBS will cancel 4-5 hours worth of scripted shows that are currently airing on their schedule to make room for new shows next season. Those 4-5 hours worth of shows will almost certainly come from the lowest rated shows in the list above, plus any low rated spring shows (with allowances for Fridays).
I don't believe The Good Wife will be cancelled at its current ratings levels. I think a move to Friday next season is far more likely. The Defenders is more likely to be cancelled than renewed. Medium's season order was cut to 13 episodes, that's as close to an announcement of its cancellation as you'll get from CBS. CSI:NY, and Blue Bloods could go either way. $#*! My Dad Says could be this season's Accidentally on Purpose, but I want to wait and see more ratings, and what CBS does with its mid-season comedies before making any guesses. Hawaii Five-0 ratings continues to fall. It's getting close to interesting territory for us.
No other CBS veteran show seems in danger of cancellation now, but CSI's ratings suggest this is likely its last season at 9pm Thursday.
*Until a show's cancelled, and then it ceases to ever have existed at all.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.