NBC: Chuck, The Event, Parenthood; Unlikely That All Will Escape The Cancellation Bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 24, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outlaw (F)||Saturday burn off||0.57|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.83|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Parenthood||:| :| :|||0.94|
|Law & Order: LA||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.06|
|30 Rock||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.08|
|The Event||:| :| :|||1.14|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.17|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.18|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.61|
Ignore the full season pickup for Chase, and the additional scripts reportedly ordered for Undercovers, they’re both going to be cancelled. The cancellation bear will catch them by the end of the season.
Chuck, Parenthood and The Event are all still a ways out in front of the cancellation bear, but it’s unlikely that all three will escape him and make it to next season alive. Chuck ratings have been stable, but recently so were The Event’s (until last night!). Parenthood ratings continue to fall, and were below Chuck’s last week. Which will tire first? It won’t be the bear.
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation and any other mid-season sitcoms are in their own comedy cancellation bear race. Lots more on that come the spring when we can see some of their ratings results.
Law & Order: LA’s 1.9 rating two weeks ago seems to have been a fluke, it bounced back to a 2.4 rating last week. It’s in no danger at that level among the smoking wrecks that are NBC’s scripted shows this season.
Outlaw is defacto cancelled and its episodes are being burned off on Saturdays.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.