For the latest NBC show Renew / Cancel Index news click here.
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 24, 2010):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Outlaw (F) | Saturday burn off | 0.57 |
| Undercovers |  |
0.70 |
| Chase | |
0.79 |
| Chuck |  |
0.83 |
| Community | |
0.86 |
| Parenthood | |
0.94 |
| Law & Order: LA |  |
1.06 |
| 30 Rock | |
1.08 |
| The Event | |
1.14 |
| Law & Order: SVU | |
1.17 |
| Outsourced |  |
1.18 |
| The Office | |
1.61 |
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Ignore the full season pickup for Chase, and the additional scripts reportedly ordered for Undercovers, they're both going to be cancelled. The cancellation bear will catch them by the end of the season.
Chuck, Parenthood and The Event are all still a ways out in front of the cancellation bear, but it's unlikely that all three will escape him and make it to next season alive. Chuck ratings have been stable, but recently so were The Event's (until last night!). Parenthood ratings continue to fall, and were below Chuck's last week. Which will tire first? It won't be the bear.
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation and any other mid-season sitcoms are in their own comedy cancellation bear race. Lots more on that come the spring when we can see some of their ratings results.
Law & Order: LA's 1.9 rating two weeks ago seems to have been a fluke, it bounced back to a 2.4 rating last week. It's in no danger at that level among the smoking wrecks that are NBC's scripted shows this season.
Outlaw is defacto cancelled and its episodes are being burned off on Saturdays.
You think our cancellation bear is scary? In Russia, bears are eating the dead.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.
more chuck hate from tvbythenumbers. shocking.
LOL I love where you got the picture from!!! Please please make a mascot bear for the site!!!
What a hot mess.
How do you get to the index numbers? I mean, The Event is droping REALLY hard, so why does it have 1.14 in the renew/cancel index?
Community is the best show on TV other than Terriers. Everyone should watch it.
The Russian Bears aren’t the Cancellation Bear though. I wouldn’t be so quick to give L&O:LA five stars. It’s proven it isn’t stable.
That bear needs whitening strips!
@slicknickshady
Where’s the Chuck hate? There’s 4 factual references to Chuck.
Shikady, as the post notes:
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
The Event’s early ratings were much higher than NBC’s average, so even though it has now fallen a long way, its average is still boosted by its early ratings.
That will be “corrected” two ways. One, more episodes added will weight the early ones less, and later, I’ll reset the Index on January 1 to use only mid-season and later ratings.
Everybody is underestimating the resilience of Chuck. Chuck will keep chugging along while everything else tires and falls into the bears path before it.
I’m interested in seeing if NBC sticks with their idiotic plan to air 22 episodes of Chase.
Shikady: The index uses the season average without any weighting, meaning that The Event’s high initial ratings have the same relative value as more recent airings. It’s slightly inaccurate early in the season (hence why predictions don’t quite match the index number), but it evens out after most shows stabilize and more numbers are factored in.
Kind of sucks that the only four shows (Chuck, Parenthood, Parks and Recreation & The Event) i watch on NBC are some of its low rated shows. hopefully they all make it to next season.
more chuck hate from tvbythenumbers. shocking.
Huh?
@Shikady
read the stupid page where it says
The Renew/Cancel Index
Lays it all out for you in a nice bow.
I think the analysis is spot on, can’t see NBC keeping all three at 1.9, 1.9 and 2.0 but with Outlaw, Chase and Undercovers at 1.0,1.3 and 1.5 how many new scripted shows is NBC likely to go to for next year. This year’s failures have cost a lot of capital for a struggling network, my guess is for four hours of new scripted drama next year which puts one of Chuck, Parenthood and The Event on the bear’s menu.
Seems like every new show (except maybeNOF, Blue Bloods and LOLA) that I absolutely love, and would get the DVD when it comes out, probably won’t get renewed for a 2nd season. Hopefully Chase, The Event, D187, and TWT will find their way to DVD.
I wouldn’t be surprised if chuck is ahead of the event next week, as much as i can’t stand chuck’s fans you have to admit that the event’s ratings trend isn’t good.
Bill, that reminds me, since the point of the index is to evaluate renewal chances for every show, wouldn’t it be better if the table was ordered according to its [i]status evaluation[/i] first rather than its raw index (using that as secondary ordering)?
As long as the index doesn’t match predictions perfectly, I think having a number-ordered table reduces readability. It’s a minor quirk and you may not agree, but I thought I’d suggest it anyway.
Least amount of time up. Most amount of comments. If every story had Chuck on the title and included just a tiny snippet about Chuck in the article-no matter how unrelated- each and every post would average 20+ comments. Hits would go through the roof as well.
OK, thanks