With the announcement that Paula Abdul's CBS's Live To Dance will premiere on January 4th and then move to Wednesdays at 8pm, and by my calculation will overlap on 4 Wednesdays with her former show American Idol (Jan 12, 19, 26, Feb 2).
No sane person could imagine Paula pulling better ratings than American Idol, but I'd consider it a ratings upset if she did better than what CBS ran against Idol in those timeslots last season.
Week 1 (1/13/10) Old Christine, Gary Unmarried: 1.9 A18-49 rating
Week 2 (1/20/10): Old Christine, Gary Unmarried 1.9 rating
Week 3 (1/27/10): Old Christine, Gary Unmarried 1.4 rating (repeats)
Week 4 (2/3/10) Super Bowl commercial special: 2.8 rating
An average of a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating over the 4 weeks.
So, let's call it an upset if Paula averages anything over a 2.0 those 4 dates, under a 2.0 is a beat down, and exactly a 2.0 is a push.
Ratings beat down or upset? You make the call: