Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 31, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||order cut to 13 episodes||0.41|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.61|
|The Good Wife||0.80|
|Rules of Engagement||0.97|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.05|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.12|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.19|
|Big Bang Theory||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.47|
I'd expect The Defenders to move into that vacancy once Medium's 13 episodes are finished, and then be cancelled and not return for next season.
If CBS is down on either of their mid-season dramas (Chaos, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior) it's possible they could hang one of those out to dry on Friday (like Miami Medical), but that makes little difference to next season's chances for The Defenders, it has almost none.
All the fans insisting that CBS would never cancel their favorite shows should remember that next Fall CBS will want to bring in 4-5 hours of new scripted shows, so they'll cancel 4-5 hours worth of scripted shows that are currently airing on their schedule to make room for new shows next season. Those 4-5 hours worth of shows will almost certainly come from the lowest rated shows in the list above, plus any low rated spring shows (with allowances for Fridays).
I don't believe The Good Wife will be cancelled at its current ratings levels. I think a move to Friday next season is more likely. Or it might just stay in the same timeslot as CBS accepts permanently lower ratings at 10pm.
CSI:NY, and Blue Bloods could go either way. $#*! My Dad Says could be this season's Accidentally on Purpose, but I want to wait and see more ratings, and what CBS does with its mid-season comedies before making any guesses. Hawaii Five-0 ratings arrested their fall last night. Sign of things to come, or just a pause in the decline? We'll have to wait and see.
No other CBS veteran show seems in danger of cancellation now, but CSI's ratings suggest this is likely its last season at 9pm Thursday.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.