Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 31, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|One Tree Hill||0.92|
|Smallville (F)||final season||1.07|
Last season, ratings laggard Melrose Place had an additional 5 episodes ordered in late October, boosting its season order to 18 episodes. Of course it was still cancelled, even while entertainment sites spun all sorts of nonsense about how it might be saved.
But as of today, there's been nary a whisper from the CW about any more episodes for the certain to be cancelled at the end of this season Life Unexpected. It seems likely to leave the CW schedule even earlier in this season than Melrose Place did last year. It's possible new episodes might be ordered this late in the game, but the likelihood diminishes every day.
Update: it's settled, Life Unexpected is worse off than Melrose Place was last year. Life Unexpected isn't getting any extra episodes over the 13 already ordered.
The recent adults 18-49 ratings for 90210, One Tree Hill, Gossip Girl, Hellcats and Nikita are so close that they all look more likely to be renewed than cancelled. I don't expect much clarity on their ratings until after the New Year.
Smallville is in its final season, and Supernatural's adults 18-49 ratings on Friday are so good that the CW would be nuts to get rid of it regardless of its women 18-34 ratings.
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.