Bubble Watch 2011-12; No Ordinary Family, Law & Order: Los Angeles, Fringe, Lie to Me & More Still on the Bubble

This week MEDIUM, Life Unexpected and Undercovers effectively all went from likely to be canceled (in the case of MEDIUM) or  certain to be canceled in the case of the others to already canceled.  However, to appease any semantics lawyers in the comments I've noted them as "No Back Order."  For purposes of the 2011-12 season schedules though, that is mostly semantics.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season.  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here's the recap of shows whose cancellation status seems likely or certain, including this season's shows that have already been canceled:

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The numerous full season pick-ups a few weeks ago didn't change the list of bubble contenders when it comes to renewal for the 2011-12 season.

I received an e-mail asking why the Renew/Cancel index is all smiles with Law & Order: Los Angeles but I'm showing it on the bubble in the "Bubble Watch" write-ups.  Like The Event, the index score for Law & Order: Los Angeles is a bit front loaded.

Unlike The Event, the index hasn't tamped it back to 3 smiles (or for that matter, even only four smiles!).  LOLA's path hasn't exactly been the same as The Event's (which had a more steady downward trend).  But, I'd look for the index to correct for that in coming weeks unless the ratings bounce back up.  On Wednesday, Law & Order: Los Angeles had a series low 1.9 rating with adults 18-49, which is lower than the 2.0 adults 18-49 rating Chuck pulled on Monday.  Based on ratings, I definitely view it as on the bubble as far as renewal for next season.

Fringe dropped to a 1.8 rating on Thursday, but that didn't move it "off the bubble" into "likely to be canceled" territory yet.  It's still bubblicious as ever.   Bill points out for both Lie To Me and Fringe it might be more about whether Fox has given up on trying to do better than the ratings.

What about No Ordinary Family?  No change.  It didn't air Tuesday night due to election coverage related schedule rejiggering.  Will the end of daylight saving time be its friend when it returns on Tuesday?  Stay tuned...

Bubble Show Contenders: