NBC: Even With A Full Season Order, Could The Bear Catch Chase Early?
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 7, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outlaw (F)||Saturday burn off||0.57|
|Undercovers||Pulled after Dec 1||0.67|
|Chuck||:| :| :|||0.84|
|Community||:| :| :|||0.88|
|Parenthood||:| :| :|||0.94|
|Law & Order: LA||:) :) :) :)||1.02|
|30 Rock||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.08|
|The Event||:| :| :|||1.10|
|Law & Order: SVU||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.14|
|Outsourced||:) :) :) :)||1.19|
|The Office||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.64|
Even though Chase has a full season order of 22 episodes from NBC might the order be shortened in light of its woeful recent ratings? I’m sure there are discussions at NBC on that very subject. Feed him now, or feed him later, the cancellation bear will catch Chase by the end of this season.
With last night’s 1.7 adults 18-49 rating, The Event looks to have fallen behind both Chuck and Parenthood and closer to the cancellation bear. (those ratings will not be in the averages until next week). Stay tuned, “The Event” may be the show being caught by the cancellation bear.
The most recent ratings results for Chuck and Parenthood have kept the distance between each show and the cancellation bear relatively steady. And in Chuck vs. The Ex-President last night, Chuck came out the better in the ratings.
Recently, Law & Order: LA has stumbled badly. Two 1.9 ratings in its last three new episodes. It’s no longer certain for renewal now.
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation will be racing against each other in the spring along with the other comedies NBC looks likely to put into an expanded comedy line up. The bear will be ready.
Outlaw is cancelled and its episodes are being burned off on Saturdays.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.