ABC: No Ordinary Family Ratings Need To Float Higher To Survive
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 14, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled||0.43|
|Better With You||:| :| :|||0.78|
|No Ordinary Family||:| :| :|||0.82|
|Brothers & Sisters||:) :) :) :)||0.89|
|The Middle||:) :) :) :)||0.90|
|Castle||:) :) :) :)||0.90|
|Private Practice||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.02|
|Cougar Town||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.05|
|Desperate Housewives||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.34|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.49|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.62|
No Ordinary Family scored a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Tuesday, up from its series low 2.0 rating two weeks earlier. It needs more of a ratings increase than that to get it out of cancellation danger though. If it rose to a 2.5 rating right now, that would give it better than a toss up’s chance at renewal.
It didn’t air a new episode last week, but Better With You ratings held steady at a 2.5 adults 18-49 rating for the second week in a row two weeks ago, after not reaching that high since its premiere. If it continues to hold that ratings level, the show’s got a fighting chance for renewal.
The Whole Truth, now cancelled, is pre-empted the entire four weeks of the November ratings sweeps period. It’s currently scheduled to air at least some episodes in December. How many after that is anybody’s guess.
Some are speculating that Brothers & Sisters could be in its last season. If the producers or stars want to end the show, that’s something I don’t keep track of. It could also fall prey to what I’ll call the “Without A Trace” syndrome. A veteran, and therefore expensive, show cancelled with ratings that would otherwise cause it to be renewed.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.